NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Giannis Leading the Pack (Mar. 4)

Saturday’s NBA action jump starts the weekend with a five-game featured slate tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including fantasy stalwart and two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.

NBA DFS Picks Today: Saturday, Mar. 4

Core Play of the Day — Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks-Philadelphia 76ers

Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 55.15 | FanDuel: 53.06
Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 13.5% | FanDuel: 19.1%
DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,300 | FanDuel: $11,600

This should be a terrific game to watch if the key players are bringing it tonight for the ABC Saturday Game of the Week. Philadelphia has lost three of four while Milwaukee has rolled off 16 consecutive victories. These two squads are separated by five games in the Eastern Conference standings, so this is the perfect time for the 76ers to make some noise.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has landed in the featured spot over a dozen times this season, and, spoiler alert, he is the Core Play of the Day once more. The 28-year-old is averaging more than 50 fantasy points for the sixth straight season. He ranks fourth in the league in scoring with 31.3 points per game and second in rebounding with 12.4 per game. In his last eight regular-season games against the Sixers, Antetokounmpo has averaged 35.6 minutes with 29 points, 14.1 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 2.75 combined blocks and steals with his “worst” fantasy performance netting him “only” 49 fantasy points.

While this is the third game in five days for Milwaukee and they play again tomorrow in Washington, Giannis has logged just 28.5 and 27.7 minutes this week and he should be a safe bet for something in the low-to-mid-30s tonight. Over the last 30 days, Antetokounmpo is averaging 1.8 fantasy points per minute, which is simply elite.

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Detroit Pistons-Cleveland Cavaliers

Despite the tough matchup, DFS gamers will flock to the depleted Pistons as a key source of discount dandies. Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren and Alec Burks are all out with various injuries. But wait, there’s more… Isaiah Livers (ankle) and R.J. Hampton (non-COVID illness) are both game-time decisions.

Hamidou Diallo, Killian Hayes, James Wiseman and Jaden Ivey should all approach 30 minutes at a minimum. Marvin Bagley III is a strong option where he has eligibility at power forward, though it is hard to see him exceed his standard 24-26 minutes allotment. Just keep in mind that the Pistons are projected for 104 points tonight, which is almost eight fewer than their typical 111.8 points per game this season. Cleveland and Detroit are two of the slower-paced teams in the league, and Detroit’s head coach, Dwane Casey, typically doesn’t overburden his players, even when the team is shorthanded.

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The Cavs are 15-point home favorites, and while this game likely will be decided prior to the final frame, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are solid tournament options. Evan Mobley is a borderline core option and is a near-lock for a double-double in this matchup. Any one of this trio could pop off for 50 fantasy points, though that frequency is curbed by this lopsided matchup.

Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick – Sports Betting Opportunities

Rudy Gobert is a player to target in the betting market tonight. His points and rebounds prop, set to 25.5, has value. In his last five games since Mike Conley joined the Timberwolves, Gobert is averaging 30.3 minutes and 11.2 field goal attempts with a 69.6% success rate, resulting in 18.6 points along with 12.8 rebounds.

In the 28 games prior to Conley’s arrival and without Karl-Anthony Towns, Gobert was averaging only 7.1 shots per game with 10.8 rebounds in 29.4 minutes. Clearly, D’Angelo Russell did not trust Gobert — a big problem since he was working as Minnesota’s main distributor.

Though this is a back-to-back for Minnesota, Gobert logged only 27 minutes last night in a 110-102 victory over the Lakers in Los Angeles. Sacramento played last night as well, dispatching the Clippers 128-127 in a spirited affair, so each team is working on the same limited rest.

NBA Bet Pro has Gobert projected for 15.61 points and 11.91 rebounds with a 58% likelihood that surpasses the over, BetMGM currently has this wager available at -120, giving it a steady 6% expected ROI. If alternate lines are available on your sportsbook of choice, this is an interesting combination to “ladder” up to 29.5 points + rebounds.

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Houston Rockets-San Antonio Spurs

This weekend we get to see the two worst teams in the Western Conference square off twice. Houston, San Antonio and Detroit are all but assured the three lowest win totals in the league, which in turn will give each a 14% chance at the first pick in the upcoming NBA Lottery. Tonight the action will take place in San Antonio and then resume tomorrow in Houston.

The Spurs have won back-to-back tilts, ending a 16-game losing streak. This now means the Rockets’ 11-game losing streak is the longest in the league. Tonight Jae’Sean Tate will be out as part of the injury mitigation plan for his sore ankle and TyTy Washington Jr. is questionable with a non-COVID illness.

Even in this cherry matchup, Alperen Sengun seems like a trap, as he has tallied more than 30 fantasy points only once in his last seven appearances. Jalen Green played 19 and 29 minutes after missing time with a groin strain, so he should be good to go for 30-32 tonight and he has yet to meet a shot he did not like.

Kevin Porter Jr. and KJ Martin Jr. are viable tournament options along with Jabari Smith and Tari Eason. Just note that with a mostly healthy roster, coach Stephen Silas has the luxury of keeping most of his youngsters limited to around 30 minutes.

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San Antonio will be without Devin Vassell (rest) and Doug McDermott (thumb). Keldon Johnson (foot) is doubtful. Romeo Langford has missed the last six weeks with a strained adductor, but even if he is able to return tonight, it is hard to see him with more than 20 minutes. Tre Jones also returned after a five-game absence, but he came off the bench and saw just 21 minutes of run. We can avoid him tonight as an NBA DFS pick, even if he rejoins the starting five.

Zach Collins, rookie Jeremy Sochan and veteran Devonte’ Graham are the first players to target tonight. It should be noted that coach Gregg Popovic has a semi-soft minutes ceiling across the board of 30ish minutes for his key contributors. This is a fantasy-friendly matchup, which should neutralize the inherent risk of any playing time cap.

Update: Malaki Branham is out along with Johnson, McDermott and Vassell. Langford is expected to play, the McDermott absence opens up some minutes which will trickle to Graham and potentially Jones, depending on his conditioning. Graham is solid as a starter or off the bench, Sochan is the best wing point per dollar option and Charles Bassey can be used as a direct pivot away from Collins as they are splitting the 48 center minutes.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today

Tonight should be a crazy one with consequential matchups and completely inconsequential ones. Be sure to get all the latest analysis and information by tuning in to the Stokastic Live Before Lock show at 6:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by PrizePicks.

Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].