NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Is it Time to Buy Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? (February 4)

Saturday’s NBA action kicks off the weekend with a stellar seven-game main slate that locks at 7 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 50 fantasy points per game for the first time in his career.

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NBA DFS Picks Today: Saturday, Feb. 4

Core Play of the Day — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Oklahoma City Thunder-Houston Rockets

Tonight the featured slate has six teams playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and a pair of teams playing on Sunday. Injury designation litter the slate, which makes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stand out as the core building block of the day. Earlier this week, Gilgeous-Alexander was named to the All-Star squad for the first time in his career.

This matchup is a repeat of Wednesday’s, though the action will take place in Oklahoma City. The Rockets are up 2-0 for the season series, winning both games in Houston. Through the first two games, Gilgeous-Alexander was held in check with a disastrously low 43.2% conversion rate from the field. That is well below his 50.5% success rate on the season and likely to edge back in his favor. The Rockets lost to Toronto last night and will be without Kevin Porter Jr. (foot), Eric Gordon (rest) and Jae’Sean Tate (rest).

The Thunder are projected to score 120.6 points tonight which is four points higher than their season average. Luguentz Dort, Aleksej Pokusevski and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl remain out, which means Gilgeous-Alexander will have to carry the offense once again. The Canadian has the third-highest median fantasy projection in the player pool and should be a mainstay in the savvy DFS gamer’s portfolio.

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Jamal Murray: Denver Nuggets-Atlanta Hawks

The Nuggets are hosting the Hawks in Denver tonight. They’ll then head off to face the Timberwolves in Minnesota on Sunday. Aaron Gordon missed the last game with an ankle issue and Nikola Jokic is nursing a sore hamstring, so Jamal Murray may be in line for additional opportunities tonight. The Hawks are on the “altitude” back-to-back after besting the Jazz 115-108 in Salt Lake City on Friday, so they may be feeling a little lead-legged and already have a questionable defense.

This is the final game of the night, and we may not get injury news until much closer to tipoff. The savvy gamer will want to plan for this possible contingency to maximize upside edges in tournaments.


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Miami Heat-Milwaukee Bucks

Miami looks to be shorthanded tonight with Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson and Nikola Jovic out — and Victor Oladipo doubtful. Heck, Gabe Vincent is questionable with an ankle issue, which means the Heat may only have eight or nine players available. This includes Dewayne Dedmon, who rarely plays, and Udonis Haslem, who is essentially an assistant coach.

Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin and Max Strus will have to do the heavy lifting, and each is an above-average option. If Vincent sits, Haywood Highsmith would enter the picture as an extreme punt play who should play around 20-22 minutes out of necessity. The picture will get clearer closer to lock, but it looks like the Heat will be well-represented in DFS contests on Saturday.

Bobby Portis and MarJon Beauchamp remain out for Milwaukee, and while Giannis Antetokounmpo is still dealing with a sore knee, he is once again looking like the highest projected fantasy option on the slate — along with Nikola Jokic (hamstring).

The rest of the Bucks are neutral options who can be sprinkled across lineups, but collectively they carry appropriate salaries across the main DFS sites. If Khris Middleton moves back into the starting lineup, he should see around a five-minute increase over his recent playing time, though he still has limited upside.

Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick – Sports Betting Opportunities

Bam Adebayo stands out in the sports wagering market tonight with a total of 9.5 for his rebound prop. The 25-year-old was just named to his second All-Star squad and is averaging a solid 10 rebounds per game. In eight of his last 11 games, the former Kentucky Wildcat has corralled at least nine caroms.

The NBA Bet Pro projections have Adebayo projected for 11.4 rebounds and 35.6 minutes of action. This wager has an expected win rate of 57%, which is a little lower than we like to see, but with odds of -105 on BetMGM, it has a lofty expected ROI of 13%.

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Dallas Mavericks-Golden State Warriors

Tonight Dallas joins Miami as the punt du jour. Luka Doncic (foot) joins Christian Wood (thumb), Davis Bertans (calf) and Maxi Kleber (hamstring) on the injury report. Seemingly out of nowhere, Spencer Dinwiddie popped up on the report as well as a potential “injury management” candidate. If Dinwiddie starts, this is a phenomenal matchup — but it would also make sense for head coach Jason Kidd to completely write off this game.

Tim Hardaway Jr. will get as many field goal attempts as he desires, though Kidd probably won’t run the veteran into the ground minutes-wise. Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, Josh Green, Reggie Bullock, and, if Dinwiddie is out, rookie Jaden Hardy all will be in the mix as discount dandies.

The Warriors are double-digit home favorites despite listing Klay Thompson (injury management) and Draymond Green (back) as questionable. This would be a perfect time for head coach Steve Kerr to rest his key veterans.

Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, Jonathan Kuminga and Donte DiVincenzo could be in line for additional opportunities in the final frame, even if the regulars play. Additional news should be available later this afternoon.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today

Saturday brings a consolidated slate, with all seven games tipping off inside a two-hour window. Of course, funny things happen with rest and injury management on the weekend, so keep tabs on news updates. Even better, you can get all the latest analysis and information by tuning in to the Stokastic Live Before Lock show at 6 p.m. ET on YouTube, courtesy of No House Advantage.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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