Sunday brings a tweak to the NBA All-Star game with the player draft occurring just before the event and likely right after the 7:30 p.m. ET listed lock time on FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard and others taking the center stage as All-Star Weekend wraps up.
NBA DFS Picks Today: NBA All-Star Sunday, Feb. 19
The Rules
For the fourth year, the game will use the “Elam” format, which has been employed to spice things up a bit. Each of the first three quarters will be scored as individual games. Each team has designated a charity that will receive a donation for each quarter that their team wins.
After three quarters, the scores will get added together. A target score will then get calculated by adding 24 points (in honor of Kobe Bryant) to the leading team’s score. Then the teams will play in an untimed fourth quarter that ends when one team reaches or exceeds the target score.
The Twist
This year, the player draft will take place at 7:30 p.m. ET, just before the game tips off. Last year’s game began at 8:00 p.m. ET, so that could be the tentative timeline as well. This would give about 15 to 20 minutes for the draft and another 10-15 minutes for the players to warm up and figure things out with the coaches.
The draft will begin with the captains selecting among the pool of reserve players. The captains will then choose four of the eight named starters. As a result the “last” player chosen will actually be a “starter” for this game. This should have little to no bearing on fantasy projections.
FanDuel has already posted at the top of the contest page that they will lock contests at 7:30 p.m. and have removed the team designations from the player pool since it is unknown who will end up on which squad — other than the captains, LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
DraftKings has not posted contests at the time of this article, so there is a chance they roll the dice and keep pushing back the start time until just after the player draft is complete.
Fortunately, we have a pretty good idea of how to set baseline projections, with the Elam format having been employed the last few seasons. This article will focus on the player archetypes which tend to be the most fantasy friendly in this format. Projections are already available for Stokastic premium subscribers.
Previous Box Scores
2022: Team LeBron 163 – Team Durant 160 click here
2021: Team LeBron 170 – Team Durant 150 click here
2020: Team LeBron 157 – Team Giannis 155 click here
2019: Team LeBron 178 – Team Giannis 164 click here
2018: Team LeBron 148 – Team Stephen 145 click here
2017: West 192 – East 182 click here
2016: West 196 – East 173 click here
2015: West 163 – East 158 click here
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick – Sports Betting Opportunities
Currently, this game has a betting total of 324.5 points. In the previous three iterations that employed the “Elam” ending format, 323, 320 and 312 points were scored. While overs are more fun, just know that this line has been set with the expectation of the highest game score yet seen in this format. BetMGM currently has this wager available at -110 which is considered an “even money coin flip” situation.
Team LeBron is a 2.5-point favorite in this matchup, which makes sense for a few reasons. First, his team hasn’t lost when he has been in charge of selecting his teammates, and second, Giannis left Thursday’s game early with a wrist injury. If you believe that Team LeBron will bring home the trophy for a sixth consecutive All-Star Game, taking the -115 and laying -2.5 points makes more sense than just picking this squad as outright -150 moneyline winners on BetMGM.
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Narrative Connections to Utah
Donovan Mitchell spent the first six seasons of his career in Utah.
Damian Lillard attended Weber State in Ogden, Utah. While there he was the Big Sky Conference Freshman of the Year and earned Conference Player of the Year honors twice, wrapping things up after his junior season as the second leading scorer in school history before opting out for the 2012 NBA Draft.
Lauri Markkanen is in his first season with the Jazz after being part of the Mitchell trade. This is also his first All-Star Game appearance.
This game also marks the 30th anniversary of the only other All-Star Weekend held in Salt Lake City.
Team LeBron has won this event each of the last five years, and this is the 19th All-Star Game for James. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar remains the record holder for the oldest participant at 41 years old.
Other first-timers in addition to Markkanen include Jaren Jackson Jr., who was named as a reserve, and De’Aaron Fox and Anthony Edwards, who were tabbed as injury replacements for Stephen Curry and Zion Williamson, respectively.
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Strategies
Not a lot of defense gets played in the All-Star Game unless things are close down the stretch — which actually has been the case with a couple of the games since the introduction of the “Elam” ending. Most players don’t want to risk injury or make others look bad. This also bears out with fouls called. Last year, the teams combined for just eight. Listing out the last seven games in reverse chronological order there have been eight, 16, 35, 15, 24, 16 and 16 fouls.
More often than not, the starters and the captains usually see extra minutes. On the flip side, this means reserves and centers tend to lose out. Because of the Elam ending used over the last three years, it is harder to track who received minutes in the untimed quarter.
Blocks are few and far between and steals typically are the result of bad passes. The Elam format does help make the final quarter a little more interesting, but that is not a guarantee if one team is out to a 15-20 point lead and both sides just trade buckets.
This game is all about dunks and 3-pointers. Further, shots taken usually fall. Only three times out of the last eight games has a team converted fewer than 50% of their field goal attempts.
Steals, mostly due to errant passes, have been far more prevalent than blocks over the last eight exhibitions and free throws are basically nonexistent.
- 2022: Seven blocks, 24 steals, nine free throw attempts
- 2021: Three blocks, 24 steals, 10 free throw attempts
- 2020: 14 blocks, 25 steals, 39 free throw attempts
- 2019: Seven blocks, 17 steals, 15 free throw attempts
- 2018: Eight blocks, 20 steals, 28 free throw attempts
- 2017: Two blocks, 32 steals, eight free throw attempts
- 2016: Two blocks, 31 steals, seven free throw attempts
- 2015: Two blocks, 32 steals, 15 free throw attempts
In this eight-game timeframe, there have been 22 double-doubles recorded along with one triple-double (Kevin Durant posted a stat line of 21-10-10 in 2017, though technically, James Harden got there as well with 12-7-12 and 10 turnovers in that same game). It is a mostly even split for double-doubles being achieved with rebounds or assists to go along with points.
Newbies tend to lose out the most when it comes to minutes, though sometimes we also see veterans content to play only a couple of stints on the court. Last year Ja Morant and Andrew Wiggins started for Team Durant and logged 17.5 and 15.2 minutes. Fellow debutants Fred VanVleet (9.3), Dejounte Murray (27.5) and Jarrett Allen (23.5) were the reserves. VanVleet was dealing with nagging injuries, so he along with veterans Chris Paul (2.2) and Jimmy Butler (9.3) were content to watch from the bench. Allen got a boost with this game being in front of the Cleveland fans.
Bigs can also lose out on minutes, though that has been changing as the center position has evolved. Last year Joel Embiid (30.6) and Nikola Jokic (21.1) were the starters, with Rudy Gobert (12.5) and Allen working as the reserves.
NBA DFS Picks
Coaches: Mike Malone of the Denver Nuggets will direct Team LeBron and Joe Mazzulla, the first-year head coach of the Boston Celtics, will oversee Team Giannis.
Captains
LeBron James: This is the sixth consecutive season he has served as a captain and it will be his 19th All-Star Game appearance. Last year he played 36.3 minutes when this exhibition was held in Cleveland but played only 13 minutes in the preceding iteration. Though he is dealing with an ankle issue, he is likely to see around 20-22 minutes.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: He was on the winning team the last two seasons when LeBron chose him with the first selection, though he has yet to win when serving as the captain himself. Thursday we saw him play just seven minutes before sustaining a wrist injury, so keep tabs on his status. If healthy, he should play around half the game. The team is named in his honor, after all.
Starting Guards
Luka Doncic: There is no need for Doncic to dominate the ball, so he tends to settle in as a facilitator and 3-point scorer in this format. In his last two appearances, one off the bench and one as a starter, he has averaged 28.3 minutes with 8.0 points, 1.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists. Let other gamers take the risk of having a third consecutive underwhelming fantasy performance drag down their rosters.
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Kyrie Irving: This is the 10th All-Star designation for Irving, though he did not play in two of the last four games. When he played in 2021 he was sublime with 24 points, five rebounds, 12 assists and a pair of steals in 32 minutes. He also played a high-volume role in 2019 with 13 points, nine rebounds, six assists, one block and one steal in 24.7 minutes. If he is engaged, he can pile up fantasy points in a hurry, if he is not — well, we have an ample track record of that playing out.
Donovan Mitchell: Once a member of the Utah Jazz, it will be interesting to see how the crowd reacts to Mitchell. This is the fourth consecutive midseason classic for Mitchell, who is no stranger to the gym in Salt Lake City. Mitchell did miss the game last year with an illness, but in his debut back in 2021, he had 15 points, four rebounds, four assists and a steal off the bench in 28 minutes. His ability to play both guard positions should help him, regardless of how his teammates shake out.
Ja Morant: This will be the second All-Star Game for Morant who was moved from his reserve role and bequeathed a starting nomination when Curry was ruled out with his shoulder injury. Morant started last year for Team Durant, though he attempted just six field goals in his 17.5 minutes handing out a trio of assists. We should see him be more assertive tonight, though his league-average marksmanship from 3-point range does cap his upside potential. Too back acrobatic dunks are still only worth two points in this format.
Starting Wings
Lauri Markkanen: We know that anyone with a “hometown” connection to the All-Star Game tends to have the crowd behind them and ends up playing a few extra minutes. Markkanen, who hails from Finland, has two of the most underrated nicknames: “The Finnisher” and “Lauri Bird,” which fits him, as he has attempted a career-high 7.4 3-pointers this year with a personal best 41.2% conversion rate. Since he is familiar with the shooting backdrop in Utah, he does have a slight advantage and is a reasonable player to flirt with 20 points. Of course, DFS gamers love narratives, so he will also be well-represented in tournaments. Markkanen was designated as a starter to replace Williamson and he also is in the 3-Point Contest.
Jayson Tatum: Despite starting in this exhibition each of the last two seasons, Tatum played just 20 and 17 minutes. He does have the perfect skill set for this game and looks like a strong tournament play. In his 17 minutes back in 2021, he had 21 points, four rebounds, seven assists and four steals, shooting 9-for-16 from the field. The improvement trajectory has been impressive for the 24-year-old, now a four-time All Star, who is also participating in the 3-Point Contest. For his career, he has a 37.8% success rate on 6.4 attempts per game from downtown.
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Starting Bigs
Joel Embiid: This six-time All-Star was amazing last year as a starter for Team Durant. He dropped 36 points on 14-for-20 from the field and 5-for-8 from beyond the arc and added 10 rebounds and four assists. He’ll serve as a starter for the injured Durant, which makes him a key player to target. The Cameroonian has double-doubles in each of his last three All-Star Game appearances. Across his four All-Star Games, keeping in mind he missed the 2021 festivities with an injury, Embiid is averaging 21.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and 1.8 assists per contest.
Nikola Jokic: Jokic, the two-time reigning NBA MVP and frontrunner to become the first player to win this award in three consecutive seasons since Larry Bird (1984-1986), leads the association with 21 triple-doubles, which is as many as Doncic (10), Domantas Sabonis (6) and Morant (5) combined. He played only 21 minutes in his last All-Star Game, the fewest of any Team LeBron starter. Even so, he just missed out on a triple-double with 10 points, nine rebounds and eight assists. He played 19 minutes as a starter for Team LeBron in 2019 and recorded six points, seven rebounds and five assists. Previously when he was healthy enough to participate in this game he came off the bench.
Reserve Guards
Jaylen Brown: We could easily classify Brown as a wing and Edwards as a guard, so there is not much to parse out with this designation. This marks the second appearance for Brown, who just missed the cut last year. Back in 2021, he benefited from LeBron, Curry, Jokic and Gobert playing a combined 57 minutes, or around 15 each on average. This allowed former Cal Golden Bear to make some noise with 22 points, five rebounds, one assist and a pair of steals in 26 minutes off the bench. This is the perfect format for the 26-year-old, who can contribute in a variety of ways. The only thing holding Brown back from being a core play is that he has missed the last three games with a facial fracture. His coach will be on the sideline, and even if Brown doesn’t end up on Team Giannis, you can bet coach Mazzulla will pass some notes to coach Malone regarding how many minutes to play the forward.
De’Aaron Fox: The injury to Curry allowed Fox to become a first-time honoree, though his numbers had him already in the mix as he just missed out on being named a reserve in the first wave. The main knock against the former Kentucky Wildcat is that he will trail most of the other players in the rotational hierarchy. Fox brings quickness and the ability to get to the basket as his positives, but with his limited 3-point volume, he will be tough to trust and far from a core play for tournament lineups.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Everything has come together this season for the 24-year-old, and he is averaging 50 fantasy points per game. He can contribute everywhere in the box score, and since he is averaging 30.8 points per game, it should not anger too many veterans if he goes looking for his opportunities. The main knock is that this is his inaugural entrance into this event, but if he lands on the right squad, he has a path to playing time and a chance at 30 fantasy points.
Tyrese Haliburton: Sunday will be the first time that Haliburton plays in an All-Star Game, but he did make the 3-Point Contest as one of the more effective volume shooters in the league. This season the former Iowa State stalwart is averaging a career-high 7.2 3-point attempts with a stellar 39.9% success rate. It would be really fun if he and Fox are on opposite squads so the former teammates have a chance to go at each other on Sunday.
Damian Lillard: Injuries cost Lillard a nomination last season, but this is his seventh trip to this exhibition. Lillard is also in the 3-Point Contest and does have ties to Utah having played college ball for Weber State. In 2021, Lillard racked up 32 points in just 21 minutes by converting half of his 16 triples and 11 of his 20 overall field goal attempts. Look for the crowd to be in his favor and if the clock strikes Dame Time, watch out!
Reserve Wings
DeMar DeRozan: For DeRozan, the festivities are old hat. Additionally, there is some concern with his availability, as he has missed the last two games for Chicago with a leg issue. It would not be a surprise to see DeRozan on the court for only 12-to-15 minutes — if he even suits up. The old-school, midrange game doesn’t translate well to fantasy points in a hurry, so it is hard to give the 33-year-old a strong fantasy recommendation. If Brown or DeRozan does not suit up, it sounds like Jalen Brunson could gain entrance into the festivities on Sunday night.
Anthony Edwards: This is the first time Edwards has been honored as an All-Star and he was very deserving, even though it took an injury to Zion to get an invitation to the party. Edwards is a tremendous scorer who is effective from all three levels on the court. Though as a newbie, his minutes could be tenuous and heavily influenced by the composition of whichever team drafts him.
Julius Randle: In his inaugural All-Star Game back in 2021, Randle played just 13 minutes. He sunk both his shots and tallied four points, two rebounds and a pair of assists. In a fun turn of events, Anfernee Simons (ankle) is not able to participate in the 3-Point Contest and Randle was named as his replacement. Randle could fly a bit under the radar as he gets to escape the New York system for one game. This makes him an intriguing differentiation play in tournaments.
Pascal Siakam: This is just the second All-Star Game for Siakam, though the Cameroonian was a starter back in 2020. The all-around game skills he possesses should make him an effective option when on the court. His minutes could vary dramatically from 14 to 25 based on who ends up being his teammates.
Reserve Bigs
Bam Adebayo: The last few seasons, Adebayo has been dealing with injuries, and the missed games kept him from repeating his 2020 All-Star Game appearance. In that game, the former Kentucky Wildcat saw just shy of 13 minutes. That is a reasonable baseline for Sunday’s affair. This format does not suit Adebayo, who does his best work in the post racking up rebounds and taking advantage of his quickness. The lack of either a 3-point shot or a need for defense dampens his fantasy appeal.
Domantas Sabonis: After not making the squad last year, Sabonis is back in the fray for a third time. His deft passing and rebounding will help him in the limited playing time he receives, but even though he is like the second coming of Larry Bird compared to Adebayo, he too lacks offensive volume, which will hamstring his fantasy prospects.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today
Strategy will be key as we will not have lineups before the contests lock on FanDuel. Be sure to monitor availability of DeRozan and Brown, while also remembering that younger first timers typically do not play as much. Though with the randomization of the draft, it may not hold true.
