🏀 The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Monday, 2/15

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.

Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Feb. 15

Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers (-5.5): 225

Chicago Bulls

Wendell Carter, Jr. is questionable tonight. Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter, Jr., Chandler Hutchison, Adam Mokoka and Devon Dotson remain out. If Carter returns, he should replace Daniel Gafford in the starting lineup and any or all of Tomas Satoransky, Thaddeus Young, Garrett Temple, Denzel Valentine and Patrick Williams could lose a couple of minutes.

Zach LaVine has been excellent all season long, but has been even better without Markkanen on the floor. He has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.7 percent usage percentage in 538 minutes without Markkanen this season. Coby White also sees a slight uptick in usage percentage without Markkanen on the floor. He has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.6 percent usage percentage in 509 minutes without him on the floor compared to 0.81 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.7 percent usage percentage in 326 minutes alongside Markkanen.

Patrick Williams has averaged 29.8 minutes per game in 11 games without Markkanen this season and 34.6 minutes per game in four games without either of Markkanen or Carter. He is favorably priced on FanDuel if Carter is out tonight.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($9,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Coby White ($5,800), Patrick Williams ($4,500)

Indiana Pacers

Doug McDermott is questionable tonight. If he is out, Jeremy Lamb is the most likely candidate to replace him in the starting lineup.

Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon remain underpriced and they have a good matchup against Chicago. The Bulls are playing better defensively and also playing at a slower pace recently than they were early in the season, but they are still ninth in pace and 13th in defensive rating over the last month. Sabonis has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute and 34.9 minutes per game in 18 games alongside Brogdon without Victor Oladipo this season while Brogdon has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and 34.7 minutes per game in those games. 

Myles Turner played 33.8 minutes against the Hawks last game, so it’s nice to know that his range of outcomes still includes 33 to 34 minutes even though his playing time has been less consistent lately. The volatility makes him an interesting tournament option since he is priced to play 28 to 30 minutes. He has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 16 games alongside Sabonis and Brogdon without Oladipo this season.

Doug McDermott and T.J. McConnell have both been playing big minutes lately with McDermott replacing Lamb in the starting lineup and McConnell getting more minutes alongside Brogdon than we have typically seen in the past. McDermott played 36.5 minutes against Atlanta on Saturday while McConnell played 32.4 minutes and closed over Justin Holiday. It is more likely that McConnell plays about 26 minutes than 32 minutes, but he averages about 1 fantasy point per minute so that still makes him look like a decent value option. McDermott has averaged 31.2 minutes per game and 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in seven starts with Sabonis and Brogdon active and Oladipo inactive this season.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,100), Malcolm Brogdon ($7,700)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,600), Malcolm Brogdon ($7,800)


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Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards (+1): 229.5

Houston Rockets

Victor Oladipo and Christian Wood are still out for Houston.

John Wall played 30.6 minutes against the Knicks on Saturday and lost about four minutes to a blowout. Assuming this game is competitive to the end, Wall is likely to play at least 33 or 34 minutes in one of the best DFS matchups possible. He has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.3 percent usage percentage and 34.1 percent assist percentage overall this season. Those numbers increase to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.1 percent usage percentage and 40.0 percent assist percentage in 244 minutes without Oladipo or Harden on the floor.

Eric Gordon also benefits from Oladipo’s absence as it allows him to run the second unit while Wall is on the bench. Gordon has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute and 32.8 minutes per game in five games alongside Wall without Oladipo or Harden this season. He has a 29.2 percent usage percentage and 18.3 percent assist percentage in those games.

DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most volatile players on the slate as his playing time has been inconsistent lately but he is a great fantasy producer when he is on the floor. He has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute and 27 minutes per game in nine games without Wood this season, but he hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in his last four games. His salary has decreased as a result, so there is a lot of upside here but also a relatively low floor.

The group of Danuel House, Sterling Brown, Jae’Sean Tate and David Nwaba benefit from Oladipo’s absence as well since there are about 34 minutes available, but it’s difficult to confidently predict which player will benefit the most in any given game since it typically depends how they are playing. The matchup is excellent so there is a good chance that at least one of the four players outperform their salary.  

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: John Wall ($7,500), Eric Gordon ($6,400), DeMarcus Cousins ($6,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: John Wall ($7,700), Eric Gordon ($6,200), DeMarcus Cousins ($6,100)

Washington Wizards

It appears that Russell Westbrook will be available tonight. He hasn’t played both ends of a back-to-back yet this season, but the Wizards had been flirting with the idea recently and he’s not on the injury report for tonight’s game. Garrison Mathews is questionable after starting in place of Davis Bertans yesterday. Ish Smith is out again.

Westbrook and Bradley Beal both look underpriced tonight. Westbrook has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute and 32.7 minutes per game in 16 games with Beal this season while Beal has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute and 34.9 minutes per game in those games. The Rockets have been one of the most efficient defenses in the league over the last month, but they have also played at the fourth-fastest pace. 

Moe Wagner started yesterday’s game and played 22.3 minutes as Scott Brooks continues to experiment with different center rotations. Wagner has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season and is close to minimum salary so he projects as a strong point-per-dollar option if he starts again.

Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans are both candidates to see more minutes than usual tonight since Houston plays small whenever Cousins isn’t on the floor and Cousins has been playing less minutes recently. The Wizards have typically been playing their centers for close to 48 minutes, but this is a matchup where I think it is relatively likely that Hachimura closes at center (especially if Cousins doesn’t close for Houston).

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($9,400), Bradley Beal ($8,900), Moe Wagner ($3,200 if he is starting)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($9,000), Bradley Beal ($9,800)

Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks (+2): 217.5

Atlanta Hawks

Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, De’Andre Hunter and Rajon Rondo are still out for Atlanta. Tony Snell is questionable.

This is a tough spot for Atlanta as the Knicks are the slowest team in the league and they have also been the most efficient defense over the last month. That doesn’t mean that nobody on the Hawks will do well, but it is going to be difficult to prioritize any of them. 

Trae Young, Clint Capela and John Collins offer the most upside, as usual. Young and Collins are each likely to play 34-plus minutes, while Capela will most likely play 28 to 30 minutes. Collins was on the floor for all but six minutes that Capela was on the bench last game and, if that continues, it is a bump for his fantasy value as he has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute without Capela on the floor this season compared to 0.92 DraftKings points per minute alongside Capela. His total rebounding percentage increases from 11.7 percent alongside Capela to 15.1 percent without Capela on the floor.  

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,500), Clint Capela ($7,400), John Collins ($7,000)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Clint Capela ($7,800), John Collins ($7,600)

New York Knicks

Mitchell Robinson is out for the foreseeable future, so we should get another start for Nerlens Noel tonight.

Julius Randle continues to be the only player not negatively affected by the depth of the Knicks’ current rotation. Randle has averaged 36 minutes per game over the last month. R.J. Barrett is second on the team with 31.1 minutes per game over that time and no other player is above 28 minutes per game. Randle has averaged 125 DraftKings points per minute over that time, so his per-minute production hasn’t been hurt either.

Noel played 32.4 minutes in his start against the Rockets on Saturday. I thought there was a chance the Knicks would play small in that game and Randle would get some time at center. That wasn’t the case, however, as Noel and Taj Gibson combined for 48 minutes. That bodes well for Noel, who has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 0.87 DraftKings points per minute alongside Randle. 

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($8,700), Nerlens Noel ($4,400)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($8,600), Nerlens Noel ($4,800)

Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz (-7.5): 226

Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid is questionable. Shake Milton remains out. For now, I am assuming that Embiid will play. Tony Bradley started and played 17 minutes the last time that Embiid was out while Dwight Howard played 25.2 minutes off the bench.

Embiid has a tough matchup against Utah, but he has been nothing short of incredible this season. He has averaged 33.4 minutes per game in 11 games over the last month and 1.59 DraftKings points per minute for the season. He leads the Sixers with a 34.3 percent usage percentage and 18.5 percent rebounding percentage. He has averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute in four meetings with Rudy Gobert since the start of the 2018-19 season.

Outside of Embiid, I don’t see much that interests me from the 76ers. Utah ranks 20th in pace and third in defensive rating over the last month. Shake Milton’s absence will most likely give Seth Curry and Danny Green a couple of extra minutes, but they still don’t stand out as great values in this matchup.  

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($10,500)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($10,700)

Utah Jazz

Mike Conley is still out for Utah.

The Sixers are a middle of the road matchup, but there is value available on Utah thanks to the absence of Conley. Donovan Mitchell has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute in his four games without Conley this season. He has a 34 percent usage percentage and 36 percent assist percentage in those games compared to a 30.8 percent usage percentage and 22.9 percent assist percentage in 21 games played alongside Conley this season.

Rudy Gobert has only averaged 30 minutes per game over the last month, but I think that there is a good chance he plays a couple more minutes tonight because Utah will need him on the floor against Embiid. Gobert has been an excellent fantasy producer this season with 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. He is especially affordable on DraftKings.

Jordan Clarkson has averaged 29.3 minutes per game in his four games without Conley compared to 24.6 minutes per game in 21 games with both of Mitchell and Conley active. The increased playing time is important as Clarkson produces fantasy points at a high per-minute rate. For the season, he has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.1 percent usage percentage that is the second highest on the team.

Joe Ingles has averaged 32.6 minutes per game without Conley while Bojan Bogdanovic has averaged 33 minutes per game. Ingles has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season and Bogdanovic has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute. They offer less value than Mitchell, Gobert and Clarkson, but they still benefit from Conley’s absence and are secondary options tonight.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($8,000), Rudy Gobert ($7,100), Jordan Clarkson ($5,900)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($8,300), Jordan Clarkson ($5,500), Joe Ingles ($4,900)

Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings (+4.5): 242.5

Brooklyn Nets

Kevin Durant is out tonight while DeAndre Jordan is probable. My guess is that Bruce Brown will remain in the starting lineup in Durant’s absence. 

James Harden and Kyrie Irving should both benefit from Durant being inactive. Harden has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.1 percent usage percentage and 37.5 percent assist percentage in four games alongside Irving without Durant this season. Irving has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.4 percent usage percentage and 34.4 percent assist percentage in those games. By comparison, Harden has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.7 percent usage percentage and 41 percent assist percentage in seven games alongside both of Irving and Durant. Irving has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.3 percent usage percentage and 19 percent assist percentage in those games.

DeAndre Jordan has averaged 26.6 minutes per game in four games with Irving and Harden active and Durant sidelined, including 36.6 minutes against the Pacers last Wednesday. The Kings have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game and the sixth most total rebounds per game over the last month. Jordan’s playing time is volatile, but he should produce at a high rate in this matchup.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Harden ($10,700), Kyrie Irving ($9,000), DeAndre Jordan ($4,500)

Sacramento Kings

We don’t have an injury report for the Kings yet. Marvin Bagley III has missed their last two games. DaQuan Jeffries started in his place yesterday but only played 11.8 minutes. Nemanja Bjelica played 26.7 minutes off the bench and would probably be the biggest beneficiary if Bagley is out tonight.

De’Aaron Fox returned to the lineup yesterday and played 30 minutes in three quarters. He has averaged 35.3 minutes per game over the last month and the Nets have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. They also rank seventh in pace over that time, which is why this game has such a massive total. Fox leads the Kings in usage percentage (30.9), assist percentage (33.8) and DraftKings points per minute (1.22) this season.

Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes all offer upside at mid-range price tags thanks to the great matchup, but they don’t project as top options at their respective positions. Barnes leads the team with 36 minutes per game over the last month while Hield is tied for second at 35.3 minutes per game and Holmes is fourth with 30.3 minutes per game.

We may not know Bagley’s status til close to gametime but he projects as a strong value if he plays because he had regained some of his back-up center minutes prior to his injury. The Nets are a matchup where it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bagley at center with the second unit instead of Whiteside. If he sits, you can easily swap to Bjelica. 

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($8,800), Marvin Bagley ($4,700)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($8,700), Marvin Bagley ($4,800)

Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5): 216

Miami Heat

Goran Dragic and Avery Bradley remain out for Miami.

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are always the most appealing options on the Heat. They have a tough matchup against the Clippers tonight, but they still offer tournament upside. Butler has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games with Adebayo this season while Adebayo has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in those games.

Kendrick Nunn has averaged 32.7 minutes per game in three starts without Dragic and with both of Butler and Tyler Herro active this season. He has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute. He doesn’t stand out as a top option on this slate, but he is still relatively inexpensive for someone who projects to play about 32 minutes.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler ($8,200), Bam Adebayo ($8,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($8,700), Jimmy Butler ($8,900)

LA Clippers

We don’t have an injury report yet for the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard sat out of yesterday’s game, but I’m assuming that he will be back tonight until we hear otherwise.

Leonard has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute in five games without Paul George this season, but he has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute in 25 games played without George since the start of last season. I expect his per-minute production without George this season to increase as the sample gets bigger. He is still affordably priced despite a tough matchup against Miami. 

The rest of the Clippers are difficult to roster on this slate unless Leonard is ruled out as Nicolas Batum is the only other player from the team that we can expect more than 30 minutes from and he isn’t a particularly good per-minute producer. 

If George and Leonard both play, I’m much less interested in Leonard as well.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,600)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,800)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-9.5): 227.5

Cleveland Cavaliers

We don’t have an injury report for the Cavs, but we do know that Andre Drummond is not going to be a part of the rotation going forward. The obvious beneficiaries are Jarrett Allen and JaVale McGee, but Drummond’s absence also opens up a lot of usage for the rest of the starters.

Allen played 28.2 minutes and lost about four minutes to garbage time yesterday against the Clippers. He has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute in 310 minutes without Drummond on the floor since joining the Cavaliers. This production is similar to his production with the Nets and I don’t expect it to change much going forward. McGee has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute without Drummond on the floor this season. He will most likely only play 14 to 16 minutes as Allen’s back-up, but at near minimum salary there is value here as well.

Collin Sexton has a 30.0 percent usage percentage and has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in 368 minutes without Drummond on the floor this season while Darius Garland has a 25.2 percent usage percentage and has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in 252 minutes played without Drummond. 

Taurean Prince and Cedi Osman are interesting value options in a pace-up spot against the Warriors as well. Prince has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in 219 minutes without Drummond on the floor since joining Cleveland. His minutes aren’t secure as he only played 19.1 minutes yesterday and 20.5 minutes in his start against Portland on Friday, but there’s nothing that should prevent him from playing more minutes if he plays well. Similarly, Osman played 7.4 minutes against Portland but then played 24.6 minutes yesterday. He has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute without Drummond on the floor this season and he looks like a low-floor, high-upside option at near minimum salary. I don’t recommend rostering these two together.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jarrett Allen ($6,700), Collin Sexton ($6,800), Darius Garland ($5,500), JaVale McGee ($3,100)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jarrett Allen ($6,900), Collin Sexton ($6,500), Darius Garland ($5,500), JaVale McGee ($3,700)

Golden State Warriors

Draymond Green is probable after briefly leaving his last game with a knee injury. James Wiseman and Kevon Looney are still out.

Stephen Curry is yet another strong guard option on this slate. He was disappointing against the Nets on Saturday, but still played 33.6 minutes and lost about three minutes to garbage time. He has averaged 33.4 minutes per game over the last month and 1.44 DraftKings points per minute for the season. It will be difficult to prioritize Curry over all of the other top-end guard options, but that should keep his ownership down and make him a strong tournament play given his slate-breaking upside.

Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre and Draymond Green are all viable options tonight as well. Wiggins has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute and 34 minutes per game in seven games without Wiseman. Oubre has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute and 32.9 minutes per game in those seven games as Wiseman’s absence has led to a slight uptick in rebounding percentage and an increase in usage and playing time. Green has been the biggest beneficiary of Wiseman’s injury as he has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute and 34.2 minutes per game without Wiseman. In 16 games played alongside Wiseman, Green averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute and 26.6 minutes per game.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,900), Andrew Wiggins ($6,300), Kelly Oubre ($6,500), Draymond Green ($6,700)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($10,500), Kelly Oubre ($6,700), Draymond Green ($7,400)


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Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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