This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Adam and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Picks | Feb. 18
Toronto Raptors (+6) at Milwaukee Bucks (235.5)
Toronto Raptors (114.75)
Kyle Lowry left Tuesday’s game early with an ankle injury and is questionable to play tonight in Milwaukee. Fred VanVleet is averaging 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with a team-leading 28.2 percent usage rate and 31.5 percent assist rate across 418 minutes with Lowry off the floor this season. Pascal Siakam actually sees his usage and per-minute fantasy production decline slightly without Lowry. VanVleet is the clear top option amongst the two if Lowry is unable to take the court, but Siakam would be an excellent mid-range play, especially at $7,600 on DraftKings.
If Lowry Plays, he’ll be my favorite option from Toronto on DraftKings at only $7,000. With a 22 percent usage rate, 27.8 percent assist rate and 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, he isn’t far enough behind VanVleet in production for us to not take the $900 discount.
All of the Raptors’ big three are viable across both sites, though; Milwaukee plays at the fourth fastest pace in basketball and this game boasts a slate-high 235.5 total. There just aren’t any clearly distinguishing factors between the three, making this a situation where all of them are strong plays but none stands out amongst the group for any reason other than salary.
Chris Boucher is the nightly wild card for Toronto. He’s a 20.8 percent usage player with a 15.8 percent rebound rate and insane nine percent block rate, so it’s no surprise he averages 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. His playing time is volatile, though, making him an excellent tournament option on a nightly basis, but not a reliable cash game play. With Lowry off the floor, his DraftKings points per minute and usage jump to 1.30 and 22 percent, respectively.
Finally, if Lowry can’t go, Norman Powell will see a nice bump in usage (20.8 to 23.7) and per-minute production (0.84 to 0.94). It’s also possible that Aron Baynes could rejoin the starting lineup, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nick Nurse stay small against Brook Lopez, who attempts nearly 55 percent of his field goals from beyond the arc.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry
Milwaukee Bucks (120.75)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected to be one of, if not the highest owned player across the industry tonight. The Greek Freak is averaging 1.70 DraftKings points per minute on the season, and unlike last year he actually ranks inside the top 40 in minutes per game (33.3). Last year he ranked 81st (30.4), so an additional three minutes per game is significant for one of the best per-minute producers in the game. Milwaukee leads the slate in implied total (120.75) and faces a Raptors team that ranks just outside the top 10 in pace and a pedestrian 16th in defensive rating (111.4).
While Toronto has actually done a solid job of protecting the rim this season, they simply don’t have anyone capable of containing Giannis. Most importantly, Antetokounmpo is averaging almost 38 MPG over his last four starts, which makes him unavoidable at $10,900 on DraftKings and $11,300 on FanDuel.
Khris Middleton has frustrated plenty of us lately, but we have no choice but to head back to the well tonight. Middleton should benefit from Jrue Holiday’s continued absence, although you wouldn’t know it from looking at his most recent performance, or lack thereof. Mike Budenholzer replaced Holiday with Bryn Forbes, who owns a dismal 3.4 percent assist rate and 18.5 percent usage rate. Those rates decline even further playing alongside Antetokounmpo and Middleton, so the latter should see an uptick in opportunity. Middleton is also playing around 10 MPG without Giannis, where he’s averaging a stellar 1.43 DraftKings points per minute on the year.
Forbes is fine filler material on DraftKings at $3,700 given the abbreviated slate, but you’re really just hoping he can get to 20 fantasy points.
About half of Donte DiVincenzo’s minutes have come without Holiday on the floor this season, where he’s averaging a strong 0.94 DraftKings points per minute on 19 percent usage and 14.7 percent assists. He’s logged 30-plus minutes in four of his last five games with six or more three point attempts in all but one of them.
The Bucks rotation is so scattered that it’s difficult to project where the production is going to come from each night. That said, we’re going to want to take some shots on Lopez, Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton because Milwaukee is primed to put up big numbers in a high-scoring, fast-paced affair. Portis is easily the best per-minute producer of the bunch (1.16) and ranks third on the team behind only Giannis and Middleton.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton
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Brooklyn Nets (+2.5) at Los Angeles Lakers (233)
Brooklyn Nets (115.25)
The Nets are lucky to face a Lakers team that won’t have the services of Anthony Davis tonight, but it shouldn’t help them score. Los Angeles actually owns a 102.3 defensive rating without Davis this season compared to a 106.2 defensive rating with him on the floor. Surprising, I know, but their defense has been stellar no matter what.
James Harden averages 1.50 DraftKings points per minute without Kevin Durant this season. That number drops to 1.28 when playing alongside Kyrie Irving. Harden is garnering less ownership than Antetokounmpo and LeBron James, and I think that’s the way it should be. His nightly triple-double upside makes him a strong tournament option in any game, but he is still the least appealing of the three top-tier players now that Giannis is playing bigger minutes.
Irving is averaging 1.39 DraftKings points per minute on 32.5 percent usage and 24.4 percent assists alongside Harden when Durant is off the floor. He’s pulling 20-plus percent ownership on both FanDuel ($9,600) and DraftKings ($8,900) at the time of me writing this article. This game boasts a hefty 233 total and the Lakers are only favored by 2.5 points, so with an expected competitive affair, Harden and Irving will be called upon to shoulder the load. While they might not be top priorities due to an unfavorable matchup, they both still make for very strong plays due to their offensive involvement alone.
As usual, there’s no great value coming out of Brooklyn. DeAndre Jordan could play high 20’s in minutes against a big Lakers frontcourt, though, as his defense has been crippling the Nets but he won’t have to worry much about containing Marc Gasol.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Harden, Kyrie Irving
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: James Harden, Kyrie Irving
Los Angeles Lakers (117.75)
LeBron hasn’t exactly gone nuclear in any of these recent games without Davis, but tonight could be that night. Brooklyn ranks 27th in defensive rating (118.8) since acquiring Harden, while also playing at the league’s eighth fastest pace. They can’t protect the rim (67% FG), either, which should open the door to some very easy points for James.
The best part about this matchup with the Nets is they can score; Brooklyn will open the floodgates defensively, but still possess the offensive firepower to keep games competitive. And given the Lakers’ struggles opening up sizable leads against inferior teams with Davis sidelined, we could easily see James play upwards of 38 minutes again on Thursday. With Davis off the court, LeBron is churning out 1.48 DraftKings points per minute on 33.2 percent usage, 40.2 percent assists and 13.4 percent rebounding. He’s a fantastic play across the board.
Dennis Schroder is only producing 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in 252 minutes with Davis off the floor, but he’s priced below $6,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings in a mouth-watering matchup against the Nets. There’s really no reason we shouldn’t be looking for some value from this Lakers squad, not because they’re good or even reliable, but because the Nets will make them look like both.
Kyle Kuzma replaced Davis in the starting lineup on Tuesday but was a complete afterthought offensively. His $5,800 salary on FanDuel is still pretty palatable, though. Despite the appealing matchup, $6,700 is just too high of an ask for Kuzma on DraftKings.
Montrezl Harrell’s playing time is unpredictable, but there’s a chance he sees more minutes tonight against a Nets team that doesn’t have a talented offensive center. Harrell can’t match up against a lot of centers and becomes a liability on defense, but that shouldn’t be an issue tonight. I like him in tournaments at low ownership. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is worth sprinkling into lineups as a desperation option, but expectations should be set very low.
TOp DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James, Dennis Schroder
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James, Dennis Schroder, Kyle Kuzma
Miami Heat (-1) at Sacramento Kings (225.5)
Miami Heat (113.25)
Jimmy Butler has been outrageously good lately, racking up triple-doubles in three of his last four games, while averaging 21.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, 8.6 assists, 1.8 steals and 50.4 DraftKings points over his last 10 starts. Moreover, we’re getting 16.8 potential assists, 14.2 rebound chances and 20.3 drives from Butler over that span. Those are some elite averages that shouldn’t go overlooked. If that’s not enough, only Joel Embiid is getting to the line more than Butler (10.4) since the start of February.
Sacramento ranks dead last in defensive rating (117.8) on the season, and will be without both Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes tonight. Bam Adebayo should eat them alive in the paint, and the Kings are already allowing a league-high 19 made field goals at the rim per game. As one of the most versatile big men in basketball (24.6% usage, 27.9% assist, 15.4% rebound, 3.2% block), you couldn’t ask for a better matchup than this one with the Kings. It’s actually slightly surprising to see Miami’s implied total sits at only 113.25.
Goran Dragic’s absence should keep Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro relevant for another night. Nunn is only producing 0.75 DraftKings points per minute in the past six games he’s started with Dragic out, but he’s playing a lot of minutes and actually has a 20 percent usage rate despite playing alongside Butler and Adebayo.
Coming off the bench gives Herro some minutes as Miami’s go-to offensive option. With 0.95 DraftKings points per minute and 22 percent usage over the recent six games Dragic has missed, Herro looks like a real nice play given his extended minutes and affordable price point.
Miami is loaded with viable options tonight, including Duncan Robinson and Kelly Olynyk. We’ll need value on this slate and both of them are heavily discounted on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Kendrick Nunn, Kelly Olynyk
Sacramento Kings (112.25)
Hassan Whiteside won’t need to play huge minutes tonight in order to pay off his price tag. He’s coming off a monster performance on Monday where he posted 26 points, 16 rebounds and five blocks across 24 minutes, and while a repeat performance is unlikely tonight, it’ll be hard to get away from Whiteside at $4,600 on DraftKings. Richaun Holmes has already been ruled out, so Whiteside should see more extended run off the bench. Marvin Bagley started at center last game but played only 21 minutes, and while he will be less popular than Whiteside, there’s an argument to be made for coming in overweight on Bagley. He missed two prior games and might have been limited in his return. He still posted 30 DraftKings points in only 21 minutes, though, and is averaging north of a fantasy point per minute on the season. On a three-game slate, I don’t think I would actively avoid having Whiteside and Bagley in the same lineup, either, as both are below $5,000 on DraftKings.
Nemanja Bjelica and Glenn Robinson should see some additional minutes with Harrison Barnes and Holmes out, but Bjelica is a much better per-minute producer and is close to minimum salary. Cory Joseph drew his first start of the season on Monday and was actually quite impressive, finishing with 32.5 DraftKings points on 22 points, five assists and two rebounds across 31 minutes. We shouldn’t become accustomed to this production for a 14.8 percent usage player like Joseph, but he’s below $4,000 on a three-game slate, so we can’t ask for much more than that.
Tyrese Haliburton and De’Aaron Fox are both much better plays on FanDuel than they are on DraftKings, but the Kings do have the lowest implied total on Thursday’s slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Hassan Whiteside, Marvin Bagley, Cory Joseph, Nemanja Bjelica
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Tyrese Haliburton, DeAaron Fox, Cory Joseph
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