NBA DFS Picks: FREE 1/2 Cash Building Blocks: Alec Burks, Damion Lee, Value Plays and MORE

Thursday, Jan. 2 grants a healthy nine-game main slate for all the big daily fantasy sites. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Alec Burks, Damion Lee and more.

Hey! Check out our Twitter account for loads of FREE giveaways.

Check out Chris Spags’ Switch and Hedge for more NBA DFS picks and analysis HERE.


Don’t forget to check out the NBA Strategy Show featuring Josh Engleman and Adam “ShipMyMoney” Scherer as they break down the NBA DFS slate. They focus on Kawhi Leonard versus Paul George, Jalen Brunson chalk, the Minnesota and Golden State understudies plus other injury news and analysis.


NBA DFS Picks: Prime Time Players

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

Today we have only one team, the Timberwolves, playing on a back-to-back. We already know that the Warriors will be missing D’Angelo Russell (shoulder) and Willie Cauley-Stein (illness). In turn, Minnesota will again likely be without Karl Anthony Towns who has missed the last eight games with a knee injury. Andrew Wiggins has been dealing with an illness and could potentially miss his fourth straight game. Additionally, Jeff Teague may miss a second straight with a knee injury.

If Towns is out, then Gorgui Dieng is very much in play as he has he has been solid, averaging 29.3 minutes over eight starts with 34.3 fantasy points per game. He also has three double-doubles and is averaging 2.63 combined blocks/steals.

Shabazz Napier should again be in the mix for 30-ish fantasy points as long as one of Wiggins and Teague are out and he has averaged 33 minutes, 23.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.5 combined blocks/steals in the last two games.

For Golden State, do not let the increasing price tags on Alec Burks and Damion Lee dissuade you from rostering them tonight. We can also look to Marquese Chriss in a boom/bust matchup with Glenn Robinson III and Draymond Green as fillers if you want to go for a game stack.

NBA DFS Picks: Mediocre Value

Christian Wood: Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Clippers

DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $4,100, Yahoo $13 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 30.9%, FanDuel 33.8% Yahoo Fantasy 24.8%

If you read this article from Monday, which was the last time the Pistons played, you will remember that I broke down why Christian Wood was a risky play. Here is the link, but I am also including the information below.

Monday’s Analysis

Here we go again. Please note that risky does not mean that this is a bad play. Lock Christian Wood into your cash game lineups and move along. However, for tournaments, well, let me just present some data.

Season 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Team PHI CHA G-League NOP DET
Games 17 13 n/a 21 29
Avg Min 8.5 8.2 n/a 11.9 15.5
24m + None None n/a 4 2
FP/Min        1.06        0.86 n/a        1.28        1.19

In five years since debuting with The Association, Christian Wood has played for four teams and done a full year in the G-League. The undrafted Runnin’ Rebel has appeared in 80 games and topped 24 minutes in a game just six times.

In the interest of full disclosure, in the three games Blake Griffin missed since his return from injury that Wood played healthy, he had 26.4 minutes with 16 points, three rebounds and four combined blocks/steals for 31.6 fantasy points in Miami (Nov. 12). The third time was  against Washington (Dec. 16) with 28.4 minutes tallying 12 points, six rebounds, two combined blocks/steals and an assist for 24.7 fantasy points.

What about that second game? Clearly I must be hiding the really good stuff.  Actually no, against Milwaukee (Dec. 4) Wood played only 11.5 minutes with five fantasy points.

Could he break the slate tonight? Absolutely.

Could he underwhelm and be a non-factor? You bet.

It will be up to us to decide at what point the popularity is too high and what viable countermoves are available.

Back to Thursday’s matchup

So what has changed between today and Monday? Well for starters, Wood’s projected popularity is about half of what it was then. The player pool is also increased by six teams today. That means we can eat the good chalk and find plenty of other ways to differentiate our lineup.

What did Wood’s stat line look like on Monday? Well, he played 28.3 minutes with 11 points and nine rebounds for just over 20 fantasy points. What is different today then? The opponent’s pace and defensive efficiency are essentially a wash between the Clippers and the Jazz. However, the makeup of the front court is vastly unique between these teams. Instead of dealing with Rudy Gobert it will be a combination of Montrezl Harrell and Ivica Zubac competing for rebounds and protecting the rim.

A reasonable projection for Wood would be something in the 26 to 28 fantasy points as a likely range of outcomes. This is a little better than on Monday, but the potential for upside is also higher in the matchup with the Clippers bigs. The price is better on FanDuel but there is still merit to consider Wood on DraftKings and Yahoo.

Keep in mind that Wood’s boom/bust ratio (a calculation provided by and used by Awesemo himself) is 13.1%/44.2% on DraftKings and inverted at 41.5% and 14.9% on FanDuel because of the salary disparity.

NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value

Jalen Brunson: Dallas Mavericks vs. Brooklyn Nets

DraftKings $3,400, FanDuel $4,200, Yahoo $10 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 37.2%, FanDuel 1.5% Yahoo Fantasy 4.8%

Completing today’s article theme of how to leverage popularity on a larger slate, we have Jalen Brunson on DraftKings. Look, the $3,400 price point is appealing, but with 18 teams in action, do we really want to put our eggs in this basket?

First, we should keep in mind that Luka Doncic dominates this team with regards to usage, assists, rebounds, etc. Second, even if Kristaps Porzingis is out and Brunson is in the starting lineup again with Maximilian Kleber, he is going to be next to the Doncic vortex.

Finally, it is concerning that last game Delon Wright served as the direct backup and he ended up playing over Brunson in a tight fourth quarter that ultimately ended in a loss to the Thunder. The only time this duo shared the court was for 3.6 minutes to start the fourth quarter.

In the last four games with Doncic available, Brunson has averaged 0.55 fantasy points per minute and his 23.2 minutes and 11.0 fantasy points was the high water mark. Over their last 15 games, Brooklyn has the third-best defensive efficiency rating, allowing 105.1 points per 100 possessions. It is also fair to point out that they are playing at the seventh-fastest pace in this stretch.

My estimation is that the love for Brunson will decrease throughout the day as gamers start to dig into the numbers, but this is a good example of a situation we would want to avoid on a large slate. Ideally this would be a Trojan Horse that disables our opponents rosters from within.

FantasyCruncher Tip of the Day

Use promo code PRIMETIME to receive 50% off any one-week premium subscription (including FantasyCruncher options).

With the incredibly user-friendly and flexible rules creation feature on FantasyCruncher, we can take our lineup construction to the next level.

Today’s highlighted feature is the ability to import data in our own customizable fields which can then also be utilized with rules for our NBA DFS Crunches.

By using the Add/Remove Column feature, we can bring in different data elements to help inform our crunches with just a little pre-planning in Excel or Google Sheets. In the example below, Awesemo Points and Value Grades have been added as new columns. The boom/bust percentage outcomes are a new feature added for this season.

Final Thoughts

It will be interesting to see what transpires with the ten teams representing most of the better defenses. Anything can happen in any game and of course an untimely injury, foul trouble or even overtime. These are the factors that will wildly swing tournament outcomes.

Be sure to tune into the Deeper Dive/Live Before Lock two hour block on YouTube,  Twitch and Periscope beginning at 5 p.m. EST for all of the up-to-date information.

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any NBA DFS questions about DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyDraft.

Good Luck NBA DFS Gamers! ~ EMac


If you haven’t signed up for Yahoo Fantasy DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit and you will be eligible for $30 of free play, which Yahoo will match through the first $30 of your deposit (this bonus will be received in Yahoo Sports Rewards Points, aka YSRP which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately).

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Premium Data

NBA DFS Projections

NBA DFS Boom/Bust Probability

NBA DFS Ownership: Night Slate

NBA DFS Ownership – Express Slates

Yahoo! NBA Ownership

FanDuel NBA DFS Ownership

NBA DFS Ownership – Main Slate

NBA Data Central

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.