Friday, Jan. 3 delivers a six-game main slate for all the big daily fantasy sites. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Julius Randle, Kelly Oubre Jr and more.
Hey! Check out our Twitter account for loads of FREE giveaways.
Check out Chris Spags’ Switch and Hedge for more NBA DFS picks and analysis HERE.
Don’t forget to check out the NBA Strategy Show featuring Josh Engleman and Dave “Loughy” Loughran as they break down the NBA DFS slate. They focus on Joel Embiid, a healthy Atlanta Hawks squad plus other injury news and analysis.
NBA DFS Picks: Prime Time Players
Julius Randle: New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns
DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $7,600, Yahoo $33 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings TBA%, FanDuel TBA% Yahoo Fantasy TBA%
While at the time of this writing we are waiting on a projected total for this game, I expect it to be in the 218-223 range. It seems we are waiting on news for Elfrid Payton (personal) who is questionable and Ricky Rubio (hip) who is probable. For my key players, I am looking at both frontcourts so the pending news is not going to change my mind either way.
Using the dismissal of coach David Fizdale on Dec. 6 as our midpoint, in the dozen games before and after, we have the following averages for Julius Randle.
| Â FPPG | Â MPG | Â FGA | FG% | Â PPG | Â 3pts | Â RPG | Â APG | Â Stocks | |
| After | 41.52 | 32.04 | 17.3 | 47.6% | 22.58 | 1.92 | 9.92 | 2.92 | 0.83 |
| Before | 32.50 | 30.72 | 13.9 | 44.2% | 17.83 | 1.00 | 7.17 | 3.08 | 0.83 |
| Variance | 9.02 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 3.4% | 4.75 | 0.92 | 2.75 | (0.17) | (0.0) |
Essentially, he has increased his efficiency with an improvement of around 25% in fantasy output with only a 5% increase in minutes.
Over their last 15 games, Phoenix has allowed 114.0 points per 100 possessions which is the fourth worst in the league. They are also playing at the fifth-fastest pace. Yes, DeAndre Ayton has been in and out of action, but that is not going to change my interest in Randle.
Kelly Oubre Jr: Phoenix Suns vs. New York KnicksÂ
DraftKings $6,800, FanDuel $7,100, Yahoo $28 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings TBA%, FanDuel TBA% Yahoo Fantasy TBA%
It seems like Kelly Oubre Jr has moved beyond his nagging injuries and he is again producing solid stat lines. Now that the rotations have somewhat stabilized for the Knicks, we are seeing better defense from them. In the before/after of the David Fizdale firing, they are playing at about the same 100 possessions per game pace, but they have improved their total points per game allowed by nearly 10 points and are now in the middle of the pack.
Oubre has been playing heavy minutes in his last three games, but his 1.25 fantasy points per minute are a nice improvement on his 1.0 season-long rate. He had eight steals and a dozen three-pointers in his last three games but we know that is part of the package. With his minutes, he has a solid floor and in turn has a nice upside potential, even if he has not regularly been achieving this season.
NBA DFS Picks: Good Value
Kent Bazemore: Portland Trailblazers at Washington Wizards
DraftKings $3,500, FanDuel $4,000, Yahoo $10 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings TBA%, FanDuel TBA% Yahoo Fantasy TBA%
This is not a fun option, but the price is nice for the matchup against the depleted Washington Wizards. There should be more minutes around for Kent Bazemore with Skal Labissiere on the shelf and the predisposition for Washington to go small. Over their last 15 games, the Wizards are allowing 116.2 points per 100 possessions which is the worst in the league. This game currently has the highest projected total at 230.0 and the Blazers are 5.5 road favorites.
Bazemore’s better fantasy games come with steals and he will have ample opportunities for those tonight.
Yahoo Discount Dandies
Kyle Kuzma vs. NOP – $11
Kent Bazemore at WAS – $10
Terrence Ross vs. MIA – $10
Mikal Bridges vs. NYK – $10
NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value
De’Andre Hunter: Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
DraftKings $4,200, FanDuel $4,400, Yahoo $13 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings TBA%, FanDuel TBA% Yahoo Fantasy TBA%
Looking at a few different early projection sources, I was surprised to see De’Andre Hunter popping from a point per dollar perspective. This in turn will have him with surging popularity in the early ownership projections. That should subside throughout the day as better options arise.
In the meantime, let’s take a look at how Hunter has fared recently. Since the beginning of December he is averaging 32.1 minutes and 33.1 in the last five, up only slightly from his 31.8 season average. This gives us a decent picture of the before, during and after Trae Young injuries and John Collins return from suspension.
His fantasy point per minute average has been 0.70 since Dec. 1, 0.61 in the last five games and 0.69 for the season. This is not exciting and his upside is almost entirely predicated on scoring. That is not something I want to trust against the Celtics tonight.
Fantasy Cruncher Tip of the Day
With the incredibly user-friendly and flexible rules creation feature on Fantasy Cruncher, we can take our lineup construction to the next level.
After Jalen Brunson came off the bench with J.J. Barea starting last night, I wanted to remind everyone that we are able to easily make adjustments if we have FantasyCruncher.
Today’s highlighted feature is the Swaptimizer that makes life so much easier on DraftKings when that unexpected news breaks after the main slate action has begun.
Step 1: download your current CSV lineup file from DraftKings (you need to have the current file so the Swaptimizer knows which players have been locked).
Step 2: in FantasyCruncher, select the games that have yet to tip off. Then you can adjust any of your rules, exposures, projections, etc. for the remaining available player pool.
Finally….
Step 3: it’s time to Swaptimize!
Final Thoughts
Despite only six games on the docket, this should be a fun tournament slate as there are many good fantasy environments to target.
Be sure to tune into the Deeper Dive/Live Before Lock two hour block on YouTube, Twitch and Periscope beginning at 5 p.m. EST for all of the up-to-date information.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any NBA DFS questions about DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyDraft.
Good Luck NBA DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
If you haven’t signed up for Yahoo Fantasy DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit and you will be eligible for $30 of free play, which Yahoo will match through the first $30 of your deposit (this bonus will be received in Yahoo Sports Rewards Points, aka YSRP which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately).
