Thursday, Dec. 19 brings a four-game main slate for all the big daily fantasy sites. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including LeBron James, Donovan Mitchell, Royce O’Neale and more.
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Check out Chris Spags’ Switch and Hedge for more NBA DFS picks and analysis HERE.
Don’t forget to check out the NBA Strategy Show featuring Josh Engleman and Adam “ShipMyMoney” Scherer as they break down the NBA DFS slate and give out their thoughts on Trae Young, Khris Middleton, injury news and analysis.
Here are all the links you need
Missed it live? Find the podcast:
NBA DFS Picks: Prime Time Players
Donovan Mitchell: Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks
DraftKings $8,000, FanDuel $8,600, Yahoo $37 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 29.2%, FanDuel 24.1% Yahoo Fantasy 29.0%
Unfortunately Mike Conley re-injured his hamstring in his return on Tuesday after sitting out the previous five games. He is going to be out into early January, so we are getting a solid discount on Donovan Mitchell. For me, he is an excellent building block in this matchup as we have seen Atlanta be quite frisky at home and playing teams tough into the final frame. All six of their last blowout losses have all been on the road.
Mitchell does not see a major difference in his rates with or without Conley on the floor, but his absence does solidify the likely minutes baseline of Mitchell two or three minutes more than normal in a non-blowout scenario.
When rostering Mitchell, we will still be able to pair him with one of the top-shelf options such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, James Harden or Trae Young.
On FanDuel, there is a definite argument to find the extra $800 to move up to Kawhi Leonard, though that is when the popularity delta between these two players becomes crucial in large-field tournaments.
NBA DFS Picks: Good Value
Donte DiVincenzo: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $5,400, Yahoo $13 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 10.2%, FanDuel 10.7% Yahoo Fantasy 26.0%
With Eric Bledsoe likely out of action through the holidays, Donte DiVincenzo will be the primary ball handler for Milwaukee. Depending on what other teams are doing, we could see George Hill join him on the closing unit, but they are unlikely to play much together otherwise.
There are only eight teams in our player pool on Thursday, so we need to re-calibrate our definition of “value” plays. We should see DiVincenzo in the 26 to 28 minute range with upside if it is a close game. He projects as the No. 25 to 30 scorer for raw points which cannot be overlooked tonight. Your comparable pivot option would be Patrick Beverley.
NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value
Royce O’Neale: Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks
DraftKings $4,100, FanDuel $4,300, Yahoo $10 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 16.1%, FanDuel 19.2% Yahoo Fantasy 22.4%
Yes, he absolutely will be on the court tonight with the Mike Conley minutes trickle down effect keeping him in the low 30s in a great matchup. In his last 23 games, O’Neale is averaging 29.02 minutes and 18.1 fantasy points or 0.62 fantasy points per minute. During this stretch, one-third of his games have resulted in fewer than 15 fantasy points. For those games, he averaged 27.2 minutes of court time. On the other side of the spectrum, O’Neale has topped 25 fantasy points in only four of these games with a 28.1 fantasy point and 32.7 minutes average in those good games.
While there are only eight teams in the player pool tonight, just how much could O’Neale potentially hurt us if we look elsewhere?
FantasyCruncher Tip of the Day
Use promo code PRIMETIME to receive 50% off any one-month premium subscription (including FantasyCruncher options).
With the incredibly user-friendly and flexible rules creation feature on FantasyCruncher, we can take our lineup construction to the next level.
After the Robert Covington “not starting, but not getting traded” kerfuffle from last night, I wanted to remind everyone that we are able to easily make adjustments if we have FantasyCruncher.
Today’s highlighted feature is the Swaptimizer that makes life so much easier on DraftKings when that unexpected news breaks after the main slate action has begun.
Step 1: download your current CSV lineup file from DraftKings (you need to have the current file so the Swaptimizer knows which players have been locked).
Step 2: in FantasyCruncher, select the games that have yet to tip off. Then you can adjust any of your rules, exposures, projections, etc. for the remaining available player pool.
Finally….
Step 3: it’s time to Swaptimize!
Final Thoughts
Tune in to the Deeper Dive/Live Before Lock shows on Twitch and Periscope beginning at 5 p.m. EST tonight for all of the up-to-date information.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any NBA DFS questions about DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyDraft.
Good Luck NBA DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
If you haven’t signed up for Yahoo Fantasy DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit and you will be eligible for $30 of free play, which Yahoo will match through the first $30 of your deposit (this bonus will be received in Yahoo Sports Rewards Points, aka YSRP which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately).
