Saturday, Dec. 21 grants us a 7-game main slate for all the big daily fantasy sites. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Kyle Lowry, Bradley Beal and more.
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Check out Chris Spags’ Switch and Hedge for more NBA DFS picks and analysis HERE.
Don’t forget to check out the NBA Strategy Show featuring Josh Engleman and Adam “ShipyMyMoney” Scherer as they break down the NBA DFS slate and give out their thoughts on Joel Embiid, James Hardne, Bradley Beal, injury news and analysis.
Here are all the links you need
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NBA DFS Picks: Prime Time Players
Kawhi Leonard: Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs
DraftKings $8,500, FanDuel $9,100, Yahoo $43 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 23.8%, FanDuel 16.8% Yahoo Fantasy 10.6%
No this is not a “revenge” narrative in the slightest. Please do be aware that the Clippers play again on Sunday in Oklahoma City and Kawhi Leonard has not played in a back-to-back going on three seasons.
San Antonio has been on a nice little run going 4-2 in their last six games with a quirky four straight overtime outings. In those games they have compiled a top five defensive efficiency rating allowing 102.4 points per 100 possessions.
If this game remains competitive, then we should see Leonard in the 33-34 minute range, otherwise 30ish is the most likely outcome. He is averaging 1.45 fantasy points per minute this season and is reasonably priced for his combination of safety/upside.
NBA DFS Picks: Good Value
Lou Williams: Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs
DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $5,100, Yahoo $22 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 1.8%, FanDuel 21.4% Yahoo Fantasy 4.8%
This is a FanDuel special where we can say what in the actual FanDuel. Perhaps FFS (for fantasy’s sake) is more appropriate. In his last 11 games, Lou Williams has missed two, had five blowouts and got ejected after 17.3 minutes on Thursday. He has topped 30 minutes only twice, which seems to have flummoxed the FanDuel algorithm. Once the DFS Echo Chamber gets a hold of this we should see him projected to be on about half of all FanDuel lineups.
Dario Saric: Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets
DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $4,500, Yahoo $16 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 8.6%, FanDuel 11.2% Yahoo Fantasy 2.4%
As long as DeAndre Ayton (ankle) is out, look to Dario Saric as a solid discount option on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings the SF/PF eligibility is nice, particularly when we consider that Saric can play the five when P.J. Tucker is getting center minutes. The former Adriatic League MVP has topped 30+ minutes in six of his last eight games and is averaging just shy of a fantasy point per minute this season.
Yahoo Discount Dandies
Kent Bazemore vs MIN – $10
De’Anthony Melton vs SAC – $10
Ian Mahinmi at PHI – $10
Cameron Johnson at HOU – $10
NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value
Danuel HouseJr: Houston Rockets vs. Phoenix Suns
DraftKings $3,800, FanDuel $4,100, Yahoo $11 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 33.1%, FanDuel 15.1% Yahoo Fantasy 25.2%
All we have to do is look back to last night and see what can happen with some of the discounted value plays when they die on the vine in DFS NBA. Chris Boucher, Langston Galloway and from the Twolves Josh Okogie, Shabazz Napier and Jarrett Culver.
We are in a similar situation tonight with Danuel House Jr. Yes, the matchup is excellent and he also has the chance for some extra “mop up” duty at a casual glance. However, let’s look a little deeper. In his last eight games, all starts mind you, he is averaging a tick shy of 31 minutes per game. Wow, that sounds impressive and oh how great he should be against the Suns if he gets that tonight. Of course in those games he has topped 20 fantasy points twice and is averaging 17.2 per game or 0.56 per minute.
That seems like a lot of risk from a popularity standpoint, for very little upside. “Cash” games sure, if this holds he will be on half of the lineups in those formats and you can “block” your opponents. In tournaments, he needs 30 fantasy points to hurt us and that is something he has done once since Thanksgiving. Those early season fantasy hay days where when several other Rockets were not available. The recent trend is the most likely outcome tonight.
FantasyCruncher Tip of the Day
Use promo code PRIMETIME to receive 50% off any one-month premium subscription (including FantasyCruncher options).
With the incredibly user-friendly FantasyCruncher, we can take our lineup construction to the next level.
Today, we will look at how to use the “random” feature and how it impacts projections. By going into the “Advanced Options > General Settings” we can set a global Randomness that will be applied to all players. In this case we will use 15%. This means that for each individual lineup that is produced by FantasyCruncher, each player will have their baseline projection randomized within a +/- 15% range.
So if our player had a projection of 20 points, FantasyCruncher would assign a range projection of 17-23 points. Again, this will occur with each different lineup that is created and with each player.
For those of you with FC Pro, you have a second option. The “Normal Dist Randomness” calculation will actually follow a standard deviation bell curve approach. This keeps the variations in a more realistic set of parameters. This can also be set by each play via the data upload process.
Final Thoughts
Washington, Philadelphia, Detroit, New York, Memphis, Sacramento, Portland and Minnesota are all on back-to-backs tonight with the Clippers, Hornets and Bucks being the teams that play again tomorrow. As such we could see more news popping up throughout the day as teams meet for shoot-arounds and pressers.
Tune in to the Deeper Dive/Live Before Lock shows on YouTube, Twitch and Periscope beginning at 6 p.m. EST tonight for all of the up-to-date information.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any NBA DFS questions about DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyDraft.
Good Luck NBA DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
If you haven’t signed up for Yahoo Fantasy DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit and you will be eligible for $30 of free play, which Yahoo will match through the first $30 of your deposit (this bonus will be received in Yahoo Sports Rewards Points, aka YSRP which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately).