Monday, Dec. 30 (12/30) brings a six-game main slate for all the big daily fantasy sites. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and more.
Hey! Check out our Twitter account for loads of FREE giveaways.
Check out Chris Spags’ Switch and Hedge for more NBA DFS picks and analysis HERE.
Don’t forget to check out the NBA Strategy Show featuring Josh Engleman and Dave “Loughy” Loughran as they break down the NBA DFS slate and give out their thoughts on Bradley Beal and Giannis Antetokounmpo potentially being out, plus other injury news and analysis.
NBA DFS Picks: Prime Time Players
Bam Adebayo: Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
DraftKings $7,600, FanDuel $9,100, Yahoo $36 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 34.6%, FanDuel 44.5% Yahoo Fantasy 21.4%
It has been quite some time since I have recommended multiple players from the Miami Heat, but with a game against the Wizards it is hard to avoid them. Washington has a 117.9 DEFRTG in 14 December games which is the worst in the league. In this stretch they are playing at the seventh fastest pace and have the second worst rebounding rate.
We are seeing Bam Adebayo rounding into form with career high averages for points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. He is averaging nearly 1.2 fantasy points per minute this season. If you need any additional enticement, in his last matchup with Washington the Miami center dropped 24 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and two blocks for a 50 fantasy point night in 36.6 minutes.
Jimmy Butler: Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $8,700, Yahoo $43 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 40.8%, FanDuel 34.1% Yahoo Fantasy 19.0%
Yikes, this is an atrocious job of setting a player salary. It is almost like the big DFS sites are hoping that some of the “NFL only” players are going to stick around for NBA. On Yahoo, I would prefer that Bradley Beal plays in the hopes of a more competitive game where Jimmy Butler is appropriately priced.
For the other sites, just take the gimme here and look to differentiate elsewhere. Miami does not play again until Thursday when they start off a three games in four nights stretch, so rest is not a concern for me. In the last meeting with Washington, Butler dropped a triple-double and the Wizards are even worse now. If this game is even remotely close, we should see Butler flirt with 50 fantasy points.
NBA DFS Picks: Good Value
Goran Dragic: Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $5,300, Yahoo $17 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 24.3%, FanDuel 15.9% Yahoo Fantasy 22.2%
Going for a clean sweep with the Heat, we can also turn to Goran Dragic as a value option across the board. Do not be worried that Dragic is coming off the bench. This year he is averaging a tick over a fantasy point per minute. Most gamers are not going to realize that this compares favorably to his time in Miami and that is it his second best rate in the last five seasons and third best of his career.
NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value
Christian Wood: Detroit Pistons at Utah Jazz
DraftKings $3,800, FanDuel $4,100, Yahoo $11 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 68.4%, FanDuel 41.9% Yahoo Fantasy 30.6%
Here we go again, please note that “risky” does not mean that this is a “bad” play. Lock Christian Wood into your “cash” game lineups and move along. However, for tournaments – well let me just present some data.
Season | 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 |
Team | PHI | CHA | G-League | NOP | DET |
Games | 17 | 13 | n/a | 21 | 29 |
Avg Min | 8.5 | 8.2 | n/a | 11.9 | 15.5 |
24m + | None | None | n/a | 4 | 2 |
FP/Min | Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06 | Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86 | n/a | Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28 | Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.19 |
In five years since debuting with The Association, Christian Wood has played for four teams and done a full year in the G-League. The undrafted Runnin’ Rebel has appeared in 80 games and topped 24 minutes in a game just six times.
In the interest of full disclosure, in the three games that Blake Griffin missed since his return from injury AND Wood was healthy, he had 26.4 minutes with 16 points, three rebounds and four combined blocks/steals for 31.6 fantasy points in Miami (Nov. 12th). The third time was against Washington (Dec. 16th) with 28.4 minutes tallying 12 points, six rebounds, two combined blocks/steals and an assist for 24.7 fantasy points.
What about that second game, clearly I must be hiding the really good stuff. Actually no, against Milwaukee (Dec. 4th) Wood played only 11.5 minutes with five fantasy points.
Could he break the slate tonight? Absolutely!
Could he underwhelm and be a non-factor? You betcha!
It will be up to us to decide at what point the popularity is too high and what viable counter-moves are available.
FantasyCruncher Tip of the Day
Use promo code PRIMETIME to receive 50% off any one-month premium subscription (including FantasyCruncher options).
With the incredibly user-friendly FantasyCruncher, we can take our lineup construction to the next level.
There are a lot of nifty hidden features within FantasyCruncher. Here is a sorting trick that you may not be aware of.
If you right click on a check mark at the top of a roster, the following command menu will appear.
This can be helpful if you are sorting lineups in FantasyCruncher. You can choose or eliminate those at the top or bottom quickly based on projected ownership, points, etc.
Final Thoughts
There are several seismic uncertainties today that we will want to keep an eye on. These include the status of Bradley Beal, Karl Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Aaron Gordon, Blake Griffin and Lauri Markkanen.
Tune in to the Deeper Dive/Live Before Lock shows on YouTube, Twitch and Periscope beginning at 6 p.m. EST tonight for all of the up-to-date information.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any NBA DFS questions about DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyDraft.
Good Luck NBA DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
If you haven’t signed up for Yahoo Fantasy DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit and you will be eligible for $30 of free play, which Yahoo will match through the first $30 of your deposit (this bonus will be received in Yahoo Sports Rewards Points, aka YSRP which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately).