Wednesday’s NBA slate looks like a wild one with a 12-game featured slate starting at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s look at the player pool to discuss the top NBA DFS building blocks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
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NBA DFS Picks: Wednesday, Jan. 4
Core Play of the Day — Ja Morant: Memphis Grizzlies-Charlotte Hornets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 50.1 | FanDuel: 48.1
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 8.8% | FanDuel: 4.8%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,100 | FanDuel: $10,500
There are a plethora of top-shelf options in the player pool tonight with a robust 24 teams in action. There is no reason to roster anyone that makes you feel uneasy about their fantasy prospects. Memphis is currently favored by 8.0 points in tonight’s road matchup in Charlotte. However, as we have now seen the shorthanded Oklahoma City Thunder dismantle two opponents without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, let’s not put too much emphasis on blowout risk for this game.
The Grizzlies will be without Brandon Clarke (hip) for a second consecutive game, and guard Tyus Jones is dealing with a non-COVID related illness. That means we should see Ja Morant for his standard 33 to 35 minutes with the potential for more if this game remains competitive. Morant has been a steady contributor over his last five games, hovering right around 50 fantasy points in each appearance. This is an above-average matchup, and with so many solid point-per-dollar center options, it is nice to have raw fantasy point production from a guard.
Steven Adams: Memphis Grizzlies-Charlotte Hornets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 35.6 | FanDuel: 35.4
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 52.0% | FanDuel: 21.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $6,800
Speaking of center options, Steven Adams is projecting to be wildly popular on DraftKings, and even with his salary increase on FanDuel, he still is looking like the second-most popular center-only player. Adams and Clarke have essentially been splitting the center role this season, having only been on the court together for 17 minutes. This year, Adams is averaging 1.1 fantasy points per minute, and he should see something in the low-30s tonight. The Hornets are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, and anything less than a double-double tonight from the New Zealander will be considered a disappointment.
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Looking at the Stokastic Boom/Bust tool, there is a 32.1% probability that Adams will be in the DraftKings optimal lineup. That makes sense with his reasonable salary and the ability to still roster two centers when considering the utility slot. Even with Adams projecting to be on almost half of all rosters — which is creating a -19.2% leverage opportunity (meaning he is overrepresented in tournaments) — he still has just a 5% likelihood of failing to reach 25 fantasy points, which would be considered a “bust” scenario.
FanDuel is a little different with the higher salary and the ability to only roster one center. Under today’s parameters, there is just a 13% chance that Adams is in the optimal lineup, and with a 25.8% chance of falling below 5x his higher salary from a fantasy point perspective, the savvy gamer can look to other alternatives. It is important to understand the different scoring systems, salaries and, of course, positional constraints for the different DFS sites.
Additional NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Picks Today – Sports Betting Opportunities
Isaiah Stewart looks like a strong option in the betting market, with a 7.5 over/under on his rebounding prop in his matchup in his road matchup against the depleted Warriors frontcourt tonight. Marvin Bagley III is going to be out through the All-Star Break with broken fingers, which should secure steady minutes for Stewart. Jonathan Kuminga, Andrew Wiggins, James Wiseman and JaMychal Green are all sidelined for Golden State, which takes several key rebounders out of the mix.
The NBA Bet Pro projections have “Beef Stew” corralling 9.2 rebounds for a 59% probability of surpassing this milestone at +110 on BetMGM. Though there is a thinner likelihood of success, we are also getting this wager at positive money, which presents a strong 17% xROI (expected return on investment).
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Milwaukee Bucks-Toronto Raptors
Last night Giannis Antetokounmpo posted a career-high 55 points as the Bucks took care of business against the Wizards in Milwaukee. Jrue Holiday came off the bench last night as he is recovering from an illness, and he has already been ruled out for Wednesday’s tilt. Joe Ingles is out as well as he continues to work on his conditioning after missing the better part of a year.
This means we should see ample opportunity for Antetokounmpo to post another big game, with Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez continuing to man the frontcourt with Khris Middleton (knee) still unavailable. Jevon Carter should have the chance to play 30 or so minutes, though we may get better value options at the guard spot throughout the day as news updates continue. Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen are solid DraftKings options, though Allen is too risky on FanDuel since he is $600 more than Connaughton, who is a $3,900 bargain.
Scottie Barnes, O.G. Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are solid tournament plays on DraftKings, though none of the Raptors are particularly appealing on FanDuel with everyone healthy and their currently elevated salaries. Pascal Siakam does have tournament upside on both of the main DFS sites, and while he still has an attainable 55-plus fantasy point ceiling, it is going to be harder to get there if everyone suits up for Toronto.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today
Tonight should be wild with a dozen matchups and nine of the tilts tipping off in the first hour. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, courtesy of No House Advantage.
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