Tuesday’s NBA action brings a four-game featured slate tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including the stat-stuffing ways of James Harden.
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NBA DFS Picks: Tuesday, Jan. 17
Core Play of the Day — James Harden: Philadelphia 76ers-Los Angeles Clippers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 46.97 | FanDuel: 44.93
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 15.1% | FanDuel: 7.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $10,500
Positional eligibility is key when constructing DFS lineups, and James Harden leads the way as today’s core building block. There is an abundance of center options as well as several appealing forwards from a point-per-dollar perspective. That makes the raw fantasy upside of Harden rather appealing, particularly on FanDuel, where he is eligible at both guard positions.
Over the last 10 games, the Clippers have been allowing 116.7 points per 100 possessions, which is in the bottom third of the league from a defensive efficiency perspective. Harden has been outstanding over his last eight games, and in this timeframe he is averaging 34.9 minutes and has six games with at least 50 fantasy points.
The nice thing about Harden is that he can contribute across the box score, which in turn provides a strong fantasy baseline. During this recent stretch, he is averaging 23.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 11.1 assists, and 1.6 combined blocks and steals, along with a pair of triple-doubles.
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Centers of Attention
Tonight we have a triple witching hour scenario with a small slate; two of the best projected fantasy point totals belong to centers, and that position has some excellent point-per-dollar options as well.
Nikola Jokic is at home, and Denver is hosting Portland as these teams square off for the fourth and final time this season. The two-time reigning NBA MVP has been solid in the three prior meetings, posting a near triple-double stat line in just 32.2 minutes per game. Jokic rarely disappoints, and he leads the league with a dozen triple-doubles and is second with 30 double-doubles.
Joel Embiid is projecting for slightly fewer fantasy points than Jokic, and since he is at a similar salary, he is not quite being picked up by optimizers — when running 150 lineups with no other restrictions. This does not mean he is being ignored, but it does indicate that gamers will need to make some tweaks or a conscious effort to have him on their rosters. This, of course, will lead to a likely scenario of Jokic being two or three times as popular in the large-field tournaments. The savvy gamer will be sure to have Embiid as part of their plans tonight.
Jakob Poeltl, Nicolas Claxton and Ivica Zubac are some of the center-only alternatives that do have 30-plus-fantasy-point potential and more favorable fantasy-points-to-salary ratios when compared to Jokic and Embiid.
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Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Picks – Sports Betting Opportunities
Ben Simmons is a polarizing player, but there is no denying he is an excellent passer and rebounder. Tonight he has a 24.5 total for his points + rebounds + assists prop in a matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who are a defensive sieve and a mediocre rebounding team.
This season, Simmons is averaging 7.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.2 assists. It all comes down to playing time, as his per-36 numbers are 9.9 points, 8.9 rebounds and 8.7 assists. The fourth quarter is the variable, as Simmons tends to land on the bench in close games as an offensive liability. Tonight the Nets are 4.5-point road favorites, and with Kevin Durant on the shelf, that is a key late-game option that is no longer available for coach Jacque Vaughn.
The NBA Bet Pro projections have Simmons for 26.4 points + rebounds + assists and 30.2 minutes of action. This works out to a 61% probability of surpassing the over. Though this is only an average probability of success, this wager can be found for -115 on BetMGM, which gives it a solid 4% expected return on investment, and the combination of statistical categories gives us a better baseline of production.
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Brooklyn Nets-San Antonio Spurs
The DFS salary algorithms have not quite caught up with the absence of Durant. Kyrie Irving has averaged 1.26 fantasy points per minute this season when Durant is off the court. The favorable matchup against San Antonio also has him popping up in models. Over their last 10 games, the Spurs are allowing 122.6 points per 100 possessions, which is the second-worst rate in the league during this period.
Simmons, Claxton and Yuta Watanabe are solid point-per-dollar options on both DraftKings and FanDuel. T.J. Warren and Seth Curry are strong discount dandies on DraftKings, but they are below-average plays on FanDuel. Be sure to understand the salary, scoring and position requirements for your DFS site of choice.
Keldon Johnson is coming in as one of the most popular choices in the player pool today, with his eligibility at both forward positions. Tre Jones is a neutral option, as he tends to have his upside limited by coach Gregg Popovich’s apparent soft playing time cap of around 30 minutes for most of his players, even in the absence of Devin Vassell. DraftKings has favorable salaries for Josh Richardson and Jeremy Sochan, but there likely will be better discount dandies that reveal themselves as additional news trickles out leading up to tipoff.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today
Tonight is a staggered slate with each of the four games getting a solo start time. Several top-tier players are currently carrying a questionable tag, so to prepare for all of the latest news and updates, be sure to tune into the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, courtesy of No House Advantage.
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