NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Damian Lillard on a Career-Best Heater

Thursday presents a four-game slate, and with Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, NBA DFS players can examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players to help build lineups capable of shooting to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS picks for leverage on Thursday.


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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 19

High-End Tier

Kyrie Irving is expected to be the most popular high-end spend Thursday, especially on FanDuel, where Stokastic is projecting him to be nearly 40% owned. Kevin Durant (knee) is out, but his absence has actually hurt Irving, with him only scoring 37.3 DraftKings points per game in these past two without Durant. Plus, Irving faces a Suns club Thursday that ranks 12th in defensive efficiency and 24th in pace. This game’s total is the lowest on the slate by 10 points (220.5 points) and fading a chalky Irving is the right call for this short slate.

While not a contrarian option, Anthony Edwards is cheaper than Irving tonight and a far better value. Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) remains out, and the Timberwolves will likely also be without Rudy Gobert (questionable; groin). After exiting back-to-back games with the groin injury, he was ruled out early yesterday and feels very unlikely to suit up tonight. With Gobert and Towns off the floor this season, Edwards has seen a slight increase to both his usage and assist rates, lifting him to a team-best 1.4 DraftKings points per minute, which is a significant upgrade from his 1.2 average for the season. Tonight, the Timberwolves host the Raptors and this game’s total is set at 231.5 points. When competing on his home floor in a total of at least 230 points, Edwards is averaging 47.6 DraftKings points per game (14 games).

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Hovering around only 15% expected ownership for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections, Damian Lillard is one of the best pay-up options available Thursday. He has put the team on his back recently, producing 56.4 DraftKings points per game in his last six starts with a 33.8% usage rate during this time. The 76ers come to town tonight and have struggled mightily on the defensive end as of late, ranking 22nd in defensive rating in the new year. This tilt’s total is the second largest on the slate (233.5 points) and is expected to be a nail biter, with Philadelphia only favored by 2 points. When competing as an underdog this season, Lillard has topped 50 DraftKings points in seven of 12 starts.

Value Tier

With the Suns beat up tonight, Stokastic is projecting Saben Lee to be the most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, at over 60%. While he is tempting at his low salaries, ignoring Lee with the massive ownership is an easy choice for this small slate. With Chris Paul (hip), Devin Booker (groin), Landry Shamet (foot), Cameron Johnson (knee) and Cameron Payne (foot) all out Monday, Lee saw 28.3 minutes off the bench and finished with 19 DraftKings points. However, he only saw 10 first half minutes and the rest of his minutes came during garbage time, with this being a 30-point loss for Phoenix. For tonight, Josh Okogie (nose) will join all those players on the inactive list, but Cameron Johnson (knee) will be returning and essentially replacing Okogie’s slot in the rotation. In nearly the same exact situation as Monday, it’s hard to imagine Lee seeing some notable role upgrade and they only legitimate path for him to see big minutes is another massive blowout, which is unlikely with this game present the tightest spread of the night, with the Nets only favored by 1.5 points.


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Conversely, with Gobert unlikely tonight, Naz Reid is a free square and good chalk to eat. Excluding Dec. 18, when a back injury forced him out of the game early, Reid is collecting 41 DraftKings points per game with both Towns and Gobert out of the lineup (four games). With both big men off the court this season, Reid has handled a 25.1% usage rate and contributed 1.3 DraftKings points per minute, which ranks second only to Edwards for this situation. Stokastic is projecting Reid to around 35% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, but this is by no means the attention he deserves. Reid is easily the No.1 value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections and is rating as the No.1 leverage target on the slate Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool by a mile, showing his expected ownership is way too low for how strong of a value he is.

Also from the Timberwolves, Taurean Prince isn’t getting enough attention tonight and is a far better target than Lee at essentially same price on DraftKings. With Gobert out last night, Prince logged a season-high 31.4 minutes and finished with 25 DraftKings points against the Nuggets. He is averaging 0.74 DraftKings points per minute with Gobert and Towns off the floor this season and should easily beat his low salary on DraftKings tonight with a similar workload.

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