NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer: De'Aaron Fox Curious Salary Move

On tap for Wednesday is a nine-game slate, and with Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, NBA DFS players can examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players to help build lineups capable of shooting to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS picks for leverage on Wednesday.

The Ohio Tease: Deposit $10, Get $50

21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 18

High-End Tier

Building around Luka Doncic is expected to be a popular route for lineup construction tonight. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, the superstar is projected to be around 25% owned according to Stokastic’s projections. That being said, Doncic is in such an optimal situation tonight that he is hard to avoid. The Mavericks will be back at home after a four-game road trip and are in an up-tempo spot against the Hawks, who rank sixth in pace, compared to the Mavericks, who rank third-to-last. This game’s total is up to 232.5 points – which is the second-highest total Dallas has competed in this season – and the Mavericks boast the sixth-largest implied team total on the slate (118.25 points).

Furthermore, the Mavericks will be without Tim Hardaway Jr. (ankle), and with Hardaway off the floor this season, Doncic has handled a mammoth 40% usage rate, which is a 1.7-percentage-point lift from his season average. Including three efforts over 80 DraftKings points, Doncic is producing a jaw-dropping 76 DraftKings points per game in his last five games with team totals of at least 115 points. With a slate-best ceiling in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool by over 5 fantasy points, it’s safe to expect a vintage performance from Doncic tonight.

Particularly on DraftKings, where Stokastic is forecasting him to be less than 5% owned, Christian Wood is standing out as a great player to pair with Doncic. With Hardaway off the floor this season, Wood’s usage has ranked second only to Doncic at 28.6% — which is a 2.5-percentage-point upgrade from his season average – and collected 1.2 DraftKings points per minute. Atlanta has struggled inside this season, giving up the third-most rebounds and fifth-most points in the paint, and Wood has a ceiling north of 50 fantasy points in this prime spot.

Want to try our new lineup generator for 50% off?

Use the coupon code SCORE to get 50% off the first week or month for any package, including Platinum, NBA, and NBA Lineup Generator!

The legal gambling age is 21+ and in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

De’Aaron Fox’s salary has dropped to only $8,300 on both sites tonight – which is the cheapest he has been in 14 games on DraftKings – and he is only projected to be around 10% owned, making him an excellent GPP target. The Kings face the Lakers tonight, and this clash of two of the fastest offenses in the league (both rank inside the top 10 in pace) presents the highest total on the slate by 6 points (245.5 points), which is the second-largest total the NBA has seen this season. Additionally, Sacramento’s implied team total is the largest on the board (124.75 points), and they are only favored by 4.5 points. With a team-high 28.5% usage rate, Fox is averaging 1.2 DraftKings points per minute and 43 DraftKings points per game in spreads under 5 points (20 games).

Value Tier

Norman Powell is expected to be the most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight according to Stokastic’s projections. Paul George (hamstring) and John Wall (abdominal) have already been ruled out, and Kawhi Leonard should join them on the inactive list with this being the second leg of a back-to-back for the Clippers. Combine these key players’ absences and a plus matchup with the Jazz, who rank 26th in defensive efficiency, and Powell is a prime example of good chalk, regardless that he will likely still come off the bench. With George, Leonard and Wall off the floor this season, Powell’s usage skyrockets 6.6 percentage points to a team-high 32.2% and he scores 1.2 DraftKings points per minute. Powell posted 42 DraftKings points in the lone contest those three players have missed collectively this season and brings similar upside tonight.

Terrance Mann is also an elite value from the depleted Clippers. He has seen a large role since joining the starting five six games ago and will likely surpass 40 minutes tonight with his team so depleted. With Leonard active, but George and Wall inactive this past Sunday, Mann erupted for 47 DraftKings points in a team-high 40.5 minutes. He supplies 0.9 DraftKings points per minute with those three players off the floor this season and is a steal at only $5,700 on both sites. Specifically on DraftKings, Mann is getting way overlooked, with Stokastic projecting him to be only around 15% owned.

Latest NBA DFS Content

A player to stay away from tonight is Naji Marshall, who is projected to be a 10 most rostered on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. He is going to receive big minutes with both Zion Williamson (hamstring) and Brandon Ingram (toe) out, but is in a horrible spot against the Heat, who rank fifth in defensive efficiency and second-to-last in pace. Marshall was in a similar spot Monday against the Cavaliers, who are also a top-5 defense and a bottom-5 team in pace, and underwhelmed with only 21.25 DraftKings points across 35.5 minutes. This contest’s total is the lowest on the board (219.5 points) and Marshall is an easy fade tonight. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is rating as a bottom-5 option on the slate in terms of leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

While overpriced on FanDuel, TJ McConnell remains far too cheap at only $5,500 on DraftKings and is expected to get slightly overlooked with this slate jam packed with appealing plays in this price range. According to Stokastic’s projections, he is only expected to be roughly 15% owned, making him an outstanding target. Tyrese Haliburton (elbow/knee) will miss his fifth straight tonight and McConnell has flourished with him sidelined, generating 38 DraftKings points per game, regardless that he has come off the bench in all these games. McConnell is contributing 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with Haliburton off the floor and tonight’s matchup with the Thunder sports the second-highest total on the slate (238.5 points). Both of these teams rank inside top 8 in pace this season and McConnell has a ceiling over 40 DraftKings points in this up-tempo environment.

Join our FREE DISCORD!

The legal gambling age is 21+ and in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

Situations to Monitor

Anthony Edwards (hip) and Rudy Gobert (groin) are both questionable tonight for the Timberwolves. Edwards has played through a questionable tag for over a week now and will likely suit up, but Gobert is in real danger of missing tonight’s matchup with the Nuggets. After injuring his groin this past Saturday, Gobert played through a questionable tag Monday, but only lasted five minutes before exiting. It feels more than likely he sits tonight, which would unlock Naz Reid as a core play in this high total of 236.5 points. Excluding December 18th, when he got hurt early, Reid has been a stud with 45.1 DraftKings points per game with both Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns (out, calf) inactive this season (three games).

Edwards will also receive a large boost if Gobert sits and will likely come with depressed ownership given his questionable tag. With both Towns and Gobert off the floor this season, Edwards has contributed 1.4 DraftKings points per minute, thanks to a 3.1 percentage point increase to his assist rate.

On the other side of this tilt, Jamal Murray is a rest candidate tonight with it being the second leg of a back-to-back for the Nuggets. While Murray played in both games of the team’s last back-to-back, the first of the two was a massive blowout that limited him to only 21 minutes. Before this, Murray hadn’t played two games in two nights this season. Plus, he was questionable with an ankle injury last night, so sitting out Wednesday’s matchup with the Timberwolves feels like a likely scenario, which would make Bruce Brown an excellent value play. In the six contests he has played without Murray this season, Brown is scoring 37 DraftKings points per game, with no efforts under 30 DraftKings points.

Also, this would make Nikola Jokic a terrific pay up option. He has seen a 1.2 percentage point lift to his usage rate with Murray off the court this season and will be at home tonight, where he has been nearly 10 DraftKings points per game better than when on the road this season. Plus, Gobert sitting on the other side would be an obvious boost for Jokic. Nonetheless, building some lineups around Jokic feels like a must tonight, with Stokastic projecting him to be only roughly 10% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

The legal gambling age is 21+ and in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!