NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer: Jalen Brunson Cannot Be Stopped

Monday’s main slate on DraftKings consists of five games and starts at 3 p.m. ET. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, NBA DFS players can examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players to help build lineups capable of shooting to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS picks for leverage for Monday.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 16

High-End Tier

For Monday’s five-game slate on DraftKings, Stephen Curry is expected to see the most attention among the studs, with Stokastic projecting him to be roughly 20% owned. The reason behind his popularity is that Klay Thompson will be rested today. Contrary to popular belief, the sharpshooter’s absence actually hasn’t increased Curry’s fantasy production at all this season, with him remaining right at his season average of 1.5 DraftKings points per minute with Thompson off the floor. Plus, Curry has struggled mightily since returning from an 11-game absence, scoring less than 40 DraftKings points in his first three starts back. During this stretch, Curry has shot an ugly 31% from beyond the arc, which is well under his 42% average for the season. On top of the uninspiring form, Curry is playing way down in pace against the Wizards, who rank 19th in pace, compared to the Warriors, who lead the league in the stat. Instead of paying up for Curry, opting for more balanced lineups is the best strategy for this short slate.

While he is projected to be the most rostered player on DraftKings today according to Stokastic’s projections, Anthony Edwards (hip) is a must-play at only $8,300, which is a massive $700 drop from his last start. Edwards is listed as questionable but has played through this designation in back-to-back starts and has yet to miss a game this season. He should suit up without limitations and thrive against a Jazz club that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. Edwards has topped 40 DraftKings points in 11 of his past 15 starts – including five efforts north of 50 DraftKings points – and leads the Timberwolves with a 30% usage rate and 1.3 DraftKings points per minute with Karl-Anthony Towns (out, calf) off the court this season. Not only does Monday’s matchup with Utah present the highest total on the slate (234 points), but Minnesota also carries the largest implied team total on the board (118 points). Since losing Towns back in late November, Edwards has provided 46 DraftKings points per game when playing behind an implied team total of at least 115 points (nine games).

Continuing to ride the hot hand of Jalen Brunson also has a ton of merit Monday. Since returning from a three-game absence due to a hip injury, Brunson has been a man on a mission, generating 50.6 DraftKings points per game across his last six starts. During this run, Brunson has handled a 28.5% usage rate and logged a massive 40.3 minutes per game. Today he faces a Raptors defense that ranks 24th in efficiency across their last three games and that he lit up for 45.25 DraftKings points just back on Jan. 6. Brunson has a ceiling over 50 DraftKings points today and is only projected to be around 15% owned on DraftKings according to Stokastic’s projections.

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Value Tier

Jarrett Allen is anticipated to be a chalky value for this five-game slate, with Stokastic slating him to be around 30% owned on DraftKings. That being said, at a season-low $5,900, Allen is tough to overlook. He will be at home, where Allen has been 1.6 DraftKings points per game better than when on the road and in a matchup that requires his size, to match up with Jonas Valanciunas of the Pelicans. Allen should find himself in the 35- to 40-minute range today and the Cavaliers boast a healthy implied team total of 114.5 points. When competing at home and behind an implied team total of at least 112 points this season, Allen is collecting 36 DraftKings points per game (eight games).

Opposite of Allen, Naji Marshall is also expected to be popular – hovering around 30% expected ownership on DraftKings according to Stokastic’s projections – but is poor chalk to consider fading. He has been solid with Zion Williamson (hamstring) and Brandon Ingram (toe) on the shelf, averaging 31.6 DraftKings points per game across his last three starts, but lacks real upside in this brutal matchup against the Cavaliers. This season, Cleveland ranks second in defensive efficiency and dead last in pace. In this ugly spot, the Pelicans’ implied team total is the second lowest on the slate (108 points). In Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool, Marshall’s ceiling is only around 30 DraftKings points and he is rating negatively in terms of leverage score.

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Situations to Monitor

Fred VanVleet (back) was limited to 26 minutes Saturday night and carries a questionable tag today. There is a real chance he will sit, and if he does, Precious Achiuwa will likely enter the starting lineup and be one of the best value plays this slate has to offer. With VanVleet limited Saturday, Achiuwa saw his playing time skyrocket to 28 minutes, helping him finish with 21.5 DraftKings points. Achiuwa provides 1 DraftKings point per minute this season and 29 DraftKings when given a minimum of 20 minutes (six games).

Gary Trent Jr. would also be an appealing value play, averaging 29 DraftKings points per game with VanVleet out of the lineup this season (seven games).

Rudy Gobert (groin) missed the second half of Saturday’s win over the Cavaliers and is now questionable for Monday. In the event Gobert is out, Naz Reid will become a free square for this short slate. For the four starts he has made with Towns and Gobert out, Reid is averaging 38 DraftKings points per game this season.

Lauri Markkanen (hip) is questionable for the Jazz, while Kelly Olynyk (face) remains out. If Markkanen joins the Jazz’s inactive list, Walker Kessler would be a great value to consider against a Timberwolves team that ranks eighth in pace. With Markkanen and Olynyk out Saturday, Kessler posted a double-double of 37 DraftKings points across a season-high 32 minutes in a brutal matchup against the 76ers. With both Markkanen and Olynyk off the court this season, Kessler is averaging 1.2 DraftKings points per minute.

Also, Jordan Clarkson would need to be on your radar if Markkanen misses his second straight. Clarkson lit the 76ers up for a season-best 57.75 DraftKings points sans Markkanen on Saturday and he scores 1.2 DraftKings points per minute with both Markkanen and Olynyk off the floor, thanks to his usage leaping 6 percentage points to a team-high 33.9%.

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