NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays: Jaylen Brown's Trending Up

For Thursday night, DFS players get a six-game slate to attack and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will use leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Thursday, Dec. 29.

NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 29

High-End Tier

After making history with the highest score in DFS history on Tuesday, Luka Doncic is expected to be a popular option for Thursday’s six-game slate, notably with an ownership projection around 25% for DraftKings in Stokastic’s projections. While we can’t expect another explosion over 100 fantasy points, Doncic is a player we should going overweight on tonight, considering the elite spot he is in. The Mavs will be hosting the Rockets, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency and 15h in pace, which is a notable upgrade for this Dallas club that is the slowest team in basketball. Doncic has notably been 6 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor this season and he just destroyed this same Houston team for 82 DraftKings points last Friday. The Mavs’ implied team total is the third highest on the slate (118 points) – which is the fourth largest total they have seen this season – and Dorian Finney-Smith (adductor) remains out. With the wing off the floor this season, Doncic’s usage and assist rates rise 1.3 and 5.9 percentage points, respectively, resulting in a godly 1.9 DraftKings PPM. Dallas is a 10.5-point favorite tonight, but if the Mavs do run away with a win, a huge performance from Doncic will likely be the reason. For the three times Dallas has been a double-digit favorite this season, the superstar has scored over 70 DraftKings points twice. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Doncic’s ceiling is the highest on the slate by nearly 13 fantasy points.

Hovering around 10% expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections, Pascal Siakam is a tremendous pay-up option. The forward is on an absolute tear right now, scoring 63.8 DraftKings PPG across his last four starts. Despite no overtime periods, Siakam has seen at least 40 minutes in three straight games and the massive volume should continue tonight vs. the Grizzlies, with this contest presenting a tight spread of three points in favor of Memphis. Siakam is generating 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season and this game’s total ranks second on the slate (228.5 points). The forward is a lock for 50+ fantasy points and would become an even stronger option if Fred VanVleet (questionable, back) was to sit. With the guard off the court this season, Siakam’s usage rises to a team-high 31.1%.

Jaylen Brown is also getting overlooked in terms of ownership in Stokastic’s projections. The wing is handling a 31.1% usage rate this season and producing 1.2 DraftKings PPM. Tonight, the Celtics will be hosting the Clippers and coming into this matchup, Brown has topped 50 DraftKings points in four of his past seven starts. This contest’s total is the third highest on the slate (228.5 points) and for the last 12 occasions Brown has competed in a total of at least 225 points, he is averaging 48.5 DraftKings PPG and has exceeded 50 DraftKings points five times.

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Value Tier

With RJ Barrett (finger) out and Jalen Brunson (hip) questionable tonight, Immanuel Quickley is anticipated to be the most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. Even if Brunson suits up, Quickley should start in place of Barrett tonight and is a hard value to ignore, regardless of the heavy ownership. With a 21.2% usage rate, Quickley is contributing 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Barrett off the floor this season and 26.5 DraftKings PPG for the 17 instances he has logged over 25 minutes. Plus, the Knicks get a gorgeous matchup against a Spurs’ defense that ranks dead last in efficiency. Now, if Brunson misses his second straight, Quickley will be a must-play and a player to consider locking in every lineup. Albeit with an overtime period, the guard recorded 42.75 DraftKings points with Brunson out and Barrett getting hurt early Tuesday. Quickley logged an absurd 50 minutes in the OT loss and would likely see 40+ minutes if Brunson is missing this evening. With both Barrett and Brunson off the court this season, Quickley’s usage and assist rates rise to 24 and 24.2%, respectively, helping him score 1.1 DraftKings PPM.

With Aleksej Pokusevski (leg) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (ankle) out for the Thunder tonight, Darius Bazley is expected to be popular, especially on DraftKings where he is expected to be the second most owned player only trailing Quickley. In this situation, fading Bazley is the right call. Even with Robinson-Earl inactive and Pokusevski only available for one minute Tuesday, Bazley only saw 21 minutes and failed miserably, tallying only 11 DraftKings points. The forward didn’t even start the second half in place of Pokusevski, that was Mike Muscala, who is a far better option tonight, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is forecasting him for about a third the ownership of Bazley. With the Thunder down Robinson-Earl and Pokusevski on Tuesday, Muscala produced 35 DraftKings points in 21 minutes of action. The big man scores one DraftKings PPM this season and has been productive when given a chance this season, collecting 21.6 DraftKings PPG for the six times he has received over 15 minutes.

Finally, Jeremy Sochan is an outstanding value play tonight, that is expected to get slightly overlooked, with Stokastic only projecting him roughly 15% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Since entering the Spurs’ starting lineup four games ago, the forward has produced 33.75 DraftKings points in 29 minutes per game. Plus, Devin Vassell (knee) is out tonight and while Sochan’s usage doesn’t move with him off the court, Vassell’s absence should result in a few extra minutes for Sochan, giving him a ceiling near 40 fantasy points, which is excellent relative to his price tags.

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Situations to Monitor

As mentioned above, Brunson is questionable tonight and in danger of missing his second straight game. If the guard remains sidelined, not only would Quickley be a free square, Julius Randle would be expensive chalk worth eating vs. this league-worst Spurs’ defense. The forward erupted for 60.5 DraftKings points with Brunson inactive and Barrett exiting early on Tuesday, marking his third straight effort of at least 58 DraftKings points. With Brunson and Barrett off the court this season, Randle has supplied 1.4 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his assist rate rising 8.3 percentage points to a team-high 24.7%. Also, Brunson’s absence would open the door for Miles McBride to be a strong punt and Quentin Grimes to be a compelling mid-tier target.

While inflated with an overtime period, McBride logged a career-high 46.1 minutes Tuesday and finished with 21.25 DraftKings points. He would likely start if Brunson was inactive and be able to beat his near minimum price tags based off sheer volume. As for Grimes, he barley left the floor Tuesday, logging absurd team-high 48.2 minutes in the overtime loss, translating into 42.75 DraftKings points. Brunson’s absence would likely lock Grimes into a 40+ minute role and with Brunson and Barrett off the floor this season, Grimes’ usage increases 4.4 percentage points to 19.9% and he scores 0.9 DraftKings PPM. Now, if Brunson plays, he will be a terrific GPP target, as he will likely come with depressed ownership after missing the last game. With Barrett off the court this season, Brunson’s usage elevates 4.9 parentage points to a team-high 31.6% and he contributes 1.2 DraftKings PPM.

Tyrese Haliburton (knee) is questionable tonight and a very important name to monitor, as if the guard sits, T.J. McConnell will become an elite value play as the Pacers’ likely starting point guard, regardless of the tough matchup vs. the Cavs, who lead the league in defensive efficiency. This season, McConnell is averaging 1 DraftKings point per minute and 25 DraftKings points per game when he logs over 20 minutes.

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