NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Kevin Porter Jr. a Great Pivot From High-Priced Studs

There is a four-game NBA slate on the docket for Thursday night. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, let’s examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players that can help NBA DFS players shoot to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Thursday night.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 5

High-End Tier

Building around Luka Doncic is going to be a popular strategy. According to Stokastic’s projections, the superstar is expected to a top-five most owned player on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. While his popularity isn’t ideal, Doncic is tough to overlook tonight. He should be one of your core plays. Dorian Finney-Smith (adductor) will miss his seventh straight. With Finney-Smith sidelined, Doncic has produced an absurd 77.8 DraftKings points per game. Doncic’s usage rises 1.3 percentage points to 40.1% and his assist rate increases 4.9 percentage points to 50.8%, helping him score a whopping 1.9 DraftKings points per minute.

The Mavericks will host the Celtics tonight. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (232 points) and is also tied for the largest total Doncic has competed in this season. Boston is only favored by 3.5 points, which is the tightest spread of this four-game slate. Doncic has been 4.4 DraftKings points per game better at home this season than when on the road. He is generating 70 DraftKings points per game when competing in a total of at least 225 points in Dallas (five game sample). With Nikola Jokic in a tough spot against the Clippers and the Nuggets starters at full strength and soaking up usage, Doncic leads this slate in projected fantasy points by a sizeable gap and is worth the large investment.

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Pairing Doncic with Christian Wood makes sense for GPPs tonight. He is expected to be less than 20% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections. Wood has been productive as a member of the Mavericks first unit, scoring 46.4 DraftKings points per game in his last five, with a 24.7% usage rate, which ranks second on the team, only trailing Doncic during this stretch. The Celtics rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency over their last three games and Wood has 50-point upside in this slate-high total (232 points). Wood is rating as a positive leverage target for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool,

Kevin Porter Jr. is also an enticing spend for this short slate. Eric Gordon will likely be rested tonight with this being the second leg of a back-to-back for the Rockets, and with Gordon off the floor this season, Porter’s usage has risen 1.4 percentage points to 27.4%. Houston faces a Jazz defense that ranks 26th in efficiency tonight and in two matchups with Utah this season, Porter has been terrific with 44.9 DraftKings points per game. He has topped 40 DraftKings points in five of his last eight starts and especially appealing at less than $8,000 on DraftKings.

Value Tier

With Gordon expected to be rested, Stokastic is projecting K.J. Martin to be the most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Priced under $4,000 on both sites, Martin is a necessary play with this short slate lacking many appealing value plays. Rostering Martin will help us squeeze Doncic into our lineups. Martin has started in place of Gordon for the last four contests he has missed and has responded with 28 DraftKings points in 30.4 minutes per game with the starting role. Despite projecting to be the most owned player on DraftKings tonight, Martin is still rating as a positive leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, meaning that he still isn’t seeing enough attention for how strong of a value he is.

Update: Eric Gordon oddly wasn’t listed on the Rockets injury report ahead of tonight’s matchup. The veteran has yet to play in both legs of a back-to-back this season, so Gordon definitely could still be ruled out closer to tip. However, if he is active and starting with Martin off the bench, the latter can’t be considered. 


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With Brandon Clarke (ankle) missing his third in a row, Steven Adams jumps up in value. Adams has been outstanding as of late, collecting 44.5 DraftKings points per game across his last four starts and thanks to slight increases to all his rates, Adams contributes 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with Clarke off the floor this season. Furthermore, Clarke’s absence guarantees Adams big minutes if tonight’s contest against the Magic was to stay competitive. While the Grizzlies ran away with a win last night, in the previous contest with Clarke inactive, Adams received 34.3 minutes, which is the second most playing time he has seen this season, resulting in 49.75 DraftKings points. Memphis is only favored by 6.5-points tonight and this Orlando defense they face ranks 23rd in efficiency. At only $5,700 on DraftKings, Adams brings far better upside than his salary suggests. On FanDuel, he is priced more appropriately at $7,300, but still has the upside to beat this price tag and is forecasted for sub 5% ownership according to Stokastic’s projections, making Adams one of the best leverage targets on the board.

With Stokastic projecting him for little ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Tyus Jones is a great flier for GPPs that could be a real difference maker for this short slate. On top of Clarke, Desmond Bane (injury management) will be unavailable tonight and with these two key players inactive Sunday, Jones posted 42 DraftKings points against the Kings. He logged 32.2 minutes off the bench with the Grizzlies primarily using small ball lineups and closed the game with the starters. Going against a Magic team that likely will also play small ball with two of their main bigs in Mo Wagner (suspended) and Bol Bol (health protocols) out, Jones could see 30-plus minutes off the bench, which would give him plenty of time to beat his low price tags. This season, Jones amasses 0.9 DraftKings points per minute and 32.5 DraftKings points per game when given at least 25 minutes (11 games).

Situations to Monitor

Paul George (questionable, hamstring) is the most important to monitor tonight. Hamstring injuries are always concerning, and if George sits, Kawhi Leonard will see a notable boost. With George off the court this season, Leonard’s usage increases 2.5 percentage points to 29.2% and he generates 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. Norman Powell would also be an interesting target for GPPs, despite likely remaining in a reserve role. His usage jumps 5.4 percentage points to a team-high 31.3% with George off the floor this season, translating into 1.1 DraftKings points per minute.

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