NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Tyrese Haliburton Angling for All-Star Nom

Friday delivers an 11-game slate for DFS players. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, let’s examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players that can help NBA DFS players shoot to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Friday night.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 6

High-End Tier

Despite being a popular name tonight – projected to be around 20% owned on DraftKings according to Stokastic’s projections – LeBron James is worth paying up for. The future Hall-of-Famer should be well rested after not playing since Monday and tonight’s clash between the Lakers and Hawks – who both rank inside the top-five in pace – presents the highest total on the slate (242.5 points). Additionally, James should be asked to handle an even larger workload than usual. On top of Anthony Davis (foot), Lonnie Walker (knee) and Austin Reaves (hamstring) have both been ruled out. With these three key players off the court this season, James’ usage leaps 6.5 percentage points to 38.6% and he contributes 1.6 DraftKings points per minute. Including a 76 DraftKings point showing against the same Hawks team he faces tonight, James is averaging 63 DraftKings points per game with Davis and Walker out for the last three.

As for some lower-owned, high-end targets that are standing out, Tyrese Haliburton is a sharp choice. With a career-high usage rate (24.1%) and ranking second in the league in assist percentage (46.6%), Haliburton is producing 1.4 DraftKings points per minute this season. Tonight, the Pacers host the Blazers and this tilt’s total is the second highest on the slate (237 points). In totals of at least 230 points this season, Haliburton has surpassed 50 DraftKings points at 41% clip. Projecting for sub-5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is rating as one of the best leverage options on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool.

Slated for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, Jalen Brunson must be rostered. With R.J. Barrett (finger) out for the last two, Brunson has been the primary beneficiary, scoring 46.6 DraftKings points per game. Barrett will remain sidelined tonight and with him off the court, Brunson’s usage and assist rates have increased 5.3 and 1,9 percentage points, respectively, lifting him to 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. Even in this less-than-ideal matchup against the Raptors – who rank 12th in defensive efficiency – Brunson is a strong bet for over 40 fantasy points.

Anthony Edwards continues to be slept – particularly on DraftKings, where Stokastic is forecasting him for single-digit ownership – and is vastly underpriced tonight. With Karl-Anthony Towns (out, calf) on the shelf, Edwards has averaged 51.7 DraftKings points per game in his last seven starts with a 32.1% usage rate. Hosting a Clippers team that is on the second leg of a back-to-back and could be resting some key players, Edwards should beat his current salaries with ease.

Value Tier

With Devin Vassell (knee) out and the Spurs going against a Pistons defense that ranks second-to-last in efficiency, Keldon Johnson is anticipated to be the most owned player on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. Specifically, his ownership is expected to approach 40% on FanDuel. While he does see a 2.7-percentage-point upgrade to his usage with Vassell off the court and is rating as a strong value, rostering Johnson with the massive ownership is a poor move for this large of a slate. Even including three starts sans Vassell, Johnson hasn’t topped 40 DraftKings points once in his last 10 starts. Furthermore, he has displayed a scary floor, recording less than 30 DraftKings points in seven of his past 22 starts. Johnson is rating as a bottom-three option on the slate in terms of leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and is a player to consider fading tonight.


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Rating positively as a leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool despite being projected to be roughly 20% owned, Daniel Gafford is good chalk. With Bradley Beal (hamstring) injured for the last four contests – missed three in a row and then only played 13 minutes in his return – Gafford has benefit with the Wizards using larger lineups, averaging 30.3 DraftKings points in 26.8 minutes per game. He’s production upgrades to 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with Beal off the floor this season and this an elite spot for big men, facing a Thunder squad that leads the league in pace and is giving up the most rebounds in the league. Gafford is averaging 29 DraftKings points per game when he cracks 20 minutes this season (12 games) and has a ceiling near 40 DraftKings points in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool, which is outstanding relative to his current price tags.

An awesome sleeper pick for GPPs tonight is Montrezl Harrell. Joel Embiid (foot) will miss his second straight tonight and with him inactive Wednesday, the 76ers relied on Harrell as their primary center, instead of Paul Reed, who didn’t log a single minute against the Pacers. While Harrell came off the bench, he logged 27.6 minutes, en route to a season-best 36.3 DraftKings points. Considering Philadelphia won this game and that they are in a spot tonight against the Bulls that requires a true center on the floor for most of the contest to match up with Nikola Vucevic, Harrell should handle around 25 minutes again, giving him a great chance to destroy his low salaries. Chicago ranks 21st in defensive efficiency and this season, Harrell is averaging 1 DraftKings points per minute with an 18% usage rate and 28.2 DraftKings points per game when he has logged at least 20 minutes (four games). For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic is slating Harrell to come with single-digit ownership.

Situations to Monitor

Darius Garland (thumb) is questionable after missing three in a row, while Donovan Mitchell (rest) will be inactive for the Cavaliers. Coming off the injury, Garland will surely come with low ownership if available and will make for an excellent GPP gamble. His usage rises 3.8 percentage points to 30.4% with Mitchell off the floor, resulting in 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. Garland posted a season-best 70.5 DraftKings with Mitchell out back in November and faces a Nuggets defense that ranks 25th in efficiency tonight. Stokastic currently has Garland projected in and only for around 1% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Now, if Garland remains sidelined, Caris LeVert will be a terrific value. With both Mitchell and Garland off the court, LeVert scores 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.5% usage rate and a team-high 25.5% assist percentage. Cedi Osman would also be in line for 30-plus minutes, starter or not, and be an appealing punt. With both Garland and Mitchell off the floor, Osman averages 0.9 DraftKings points per minute with a 20% usage rate.

Opposite of the Cavaliers, the Nuggets could rest Jamal Murray with this being the second night of a back-to-back. He has yet to play two games in two nights this season, but could tonight, given he only saw 21 minutes in last night’s blowout win over the Clippers. If the Nuggets stick with their plan and rest Murray, Nikola Jokic will see a boost as a strong value. While the Cavaliers rank second in defensive efficiency, Jokic has been matchup proof on his home floor this season, scoring 62.3 DraftKings points per game and his usage slightly increases to 29.7% with Murray off the floor.

Jerami Grant (questionable, quad) potential absence would make Damian Lillard a worthwhile spend in this matchup against the Pacers that sports the second highest total on the slate (237 points). With Grant off the floor, Lillard’s usage rises 1.5 percentage points to 33.4% and he averages 1.33 DraftKings points per minute. Anfernee Simons would also have a ton of merit for GPPs, with his usage skyrocketing 7.9 percentage points to a team-high 33.7% with Grant off the floor, lifting him 1.1 DraftKings points per minute.

Lastly, the Clippers have listed both Kawhi Leonard (rest) and Paul George (hamstring) questionable tonight, after both saw limited minutes in last’s blowout loss to the Nuggets. If one of these stars plays without the other, that active player will be viable with an expanded role. Now, if both sit, John Wall and Norman Powell will become enticing cheap targets. With both Leonard and George off the floor this season, Wall leads the Clippers with a 32.4% usage rate and 1.2 DraftKings points per minute, while Powell ranks second in usage at 30.9%, resulting in 1.1 DraftKings points per minute.

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