NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer: Russell Westbrook Needs Attention

On tap for Monday is a six-game slate. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, let’s examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned NBA DFS picks that can help shoot you to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS picks for leverage on Monday night.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 9

High-End Tier

Nikola Jokic is going to be chalky tonight – projecting to be a top-10 most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections but is simply unavoidable with the Nuggets hosting the Lakers. Los Angeles ranks third in pace — which is a huge upgrade for this Denver squad that ranks 21st in the stat – and their defense has dwindled with Anthony Davis (foot) sidelined, currently ranking 21st in efficiency. Furthermore, the Lakers are extremely vulnerable to opposing big men, giving up the seventh most rebounds and sixth most points in the paint. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (240.5 points) and the Nuggets’ implied team total is the largest on the board (125.25 points), both of which are new season highs for Denver.

With a 28.4% usage rate and a career-high 45.9% assist percentage, Jokic is amassing 1.7 DraftKings points per minute this season. With 63 DraftKings points per game, he has been nearly 10 DraftKings points per game better on his home floor than when on the road this season and comes into tonight scoring over 70 DraftKings points in five of his past 10 home starts. Jokic should finish as this slate’s top scorer and needs to be a core play.

On the other side of this slate-high total, Russell Westbrook is an excellent, low-owned target to pair with Jokic. Lonnie Walker (knee) will miss his sixth straight tonight and excluding Jan. 2, when Westbrook exited after only 11 minutes due to a minor foot injury, he has been a stud with Walker sidelined, scoring 49.4 DraftKings points per game. With Davis and Walker off the court this season, Westbrook is contributing 1.4 DraftKings points per minute, mostly attributed to his usage rising 2.4 percentage points to 30%. The Nuggets rank 25th in defensive efficiency, and Westbrook has the potential for this third straight effort of over 50 DraftKings points in this elite environment. Notably, he is slated to be less than 5% owned on FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections.

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Another player that is getting overlooked tonight is Jaylen Brown, specifically on DraftKings, where Stokastic is forecasting him for single-digit ownership. The Celtics will be without Marcus Smart (knee) and face the Bulls, who rank 23rd in defensive efficiency. This season, Brown has produced 46.7 DraftKings points per game with Smart out of the lineup (four games) and supplies 1.3 DraftKings points per minute with him off court, thanks to his usage and assist rates increasing 1.0 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively. Boston boasts the third-highest implied team total on the slate (122.75 points) and Brown has topped 50 DraftKings points in two of his past four starts when playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or higher.

Value Tier

With Smart ruled out, Malcolm Brogdon is expected to be chalky, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is projecting him to be the most rostered player on the slate. That being said, Brogdon’s popularity is for very good reason, and he is a prime example of good chalk. In the last two games Smart has missed, Brogdon has been outstanding regardless of remaining a reserve, amassing 37.5 DraftKings points in 30.8 minutes per game. Of all the Celtic’s, Brogdon has benefited the most with Smart off the floor this season, with his usage and assist rates rising 3.3 and 4.0 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.2 DraftKings points per minute.

Conversely, Immanuel Quickley is bad chalk. With R.J. Barrett (finger) doubtful and expected to miss his sixth in a row, Stokastic is projecting Quickley to be a top-five most owned player on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. While he flourished when both Jalen Brunson and Barrett were out, Quickley has underwhelmed with Brunson back for the last three, averaging 28.8 DraftKings points per game, despite seeing nearly 40 minutes a night during this stretch. Quickley’s usage barley moves with Barrett off the floor this season and tonight presents a tough matchup against the Bucks, who rank third in defensive efficiency. Quickley lacks real upside in this spot and is not worth rostering with the heavy ownership.

As for some contrarian value plays for tonight’s slate, Robert Williams is an appealing option with Stokastic slating him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Williams is coming off a season-best 41.75 DraftKings point showing against the Spurs on Saturday and is generating 1.3 DraftKings points per minute with Smart off the court this season. Williams should receive 20 to 25 minutes against this Bulls team that likes to have a natural center on the floor at all times and brings much better upside than his current salaries suggest.

Hovering around 10% expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections, Aaron Gordon also has a ton of merit in this slate-high total against the Lakers (240.5 points). He has recorded less than 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts, but these outings came against the Cavaliers and Clippers, two clubs that both rank inside the top 10 in defensive efficiency and bottom 10 in pace. Tonight presents a much better spot with the Lakers ranking third in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency and before these past two starts, Gordon was very productive, exceeding 40 DraftKings points in five of his previous seven games. Gordon is supplying 36.6 DraftKings points per game in totals of at least 235 points this season (five games) and is an awesome, contrarian way to attack the best game setting of the night.

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Situations to Monitor

The Grizzlies on the second night of a back-to-back and both Ja Morant (illness) and Steven Adams (illness) are questionable after sitting out last night. If Morant remains unavailable, Tyus Jones will be a free square against the Spurs, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Jones has been stellar when starting in place of Morant this season, with 41.8 DraftKings points per game (six games). Also, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson will be elite options. Last night, Bane and Jackson finished with 51.5 and 45 DraftKings points, respectively, with Morant inactive. Furthermore, with him off the court this season, Bane leads Memphis with a 31.4% usage rate and Jackson ranks second at 29.5%.

In the frontcourt, if Adams joins Brandon Clarke (out, ankle) on the sidelines, Xavier Tillman will be in line for another start and be a tremendous punt plat in this dream matchup with the Spurs. As the Grizzlies starting center last night, Tillman collected 30.25 DraftKings points across 33 minutes, both of which set season highs. This season, Tillman is scoring 1 DraftKings point per minute and 25.3 DraftKings points per game when he logs over 20 minutes.

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