We’re in our final few slates before the NBA All-Star break and we have a big nine-game slate for today’s NBA DFS picks. We have a few teams on a back-to-back, including an Atlanta team coming off a double-overtime game, that could make things a little tougher to unpack. We also desperately need news on the currently questionable Giannis Antetkounmpo, who could miss today’s game for personal reasons but would make Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe top plays on the slate if he’s out. There’s a lot to talk about so let’s get into it with the Feb. 10 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
Be sure to check out EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
Also, we are doing our biggest giveaway ever! Details are listed below.
Christian Wood is the New Andre Drummond
With chalky ownership and a matchup against Charlotte’s weak center defense, Christian Wood seems like a poor man’s Andre Drummond (with a team that hates him slightly less). Wood had 41.25 and 52 fantasy points in his two games post-Drummond trade thus far and he had over 35 minutes in both games. It’s a very limited sample size but Wood is up to a 19% rebound rate with 27% usage since Drummond has been shipped out, pretty much in line with where he’s been with Drummond off the court this year. He looks like a strong play today despite the chalk ownership. Reggie Jackson also has over 30% usage since Drummond left with 36.75 fantasy points or more in both games. Charlotte plays slowly but has a 111.4 defensive rating that will give him another shot to be useful at a price that offers some upside.
Bruce Brown has taken less of an appreciable uptick despite all the vacant usage to go around with Drummond’s trade and Derrick Rose’s (as well as Svi Mykhailiuk’s) absence. He and Thon Maker are fine plays that I’d prefer in lineups where I don’t look the way of low-owned Jackson. It’s going to be a slow-paced game with Charlotte’s 98.7 pace and Detroit’s 101 pace so it may be the safest choice to just go with Wood.
Looking for more NBA picks and projections? Sign up HERE for Awesemo+!
Devonte’ Graham had one of his best NBA DFS games of the new year in his last effort versus Dallas. Graham benefited largely from an early fourth quarter stint where he was isolated away from Terry Rozier and Malik Monk as the Mavericks built up a huge lead. Charlotte’s rotations are a big impediment to Graham’s success and mostly hard to predict. I’d be less inclined to point chase him today even though his 3% ownership gives him some upside if coach James Borrego learned something from that situation. It may be more logical to target Cody Zeller or P.J. Washington with how Charlotte will likely have to put someone on the court to combat Wood. Zeller would need to get into the closing group to have the upside you’d need.
An Uber-NBA DFS Chalk Victor Oladipo
Victor Oladipo is underpriced on DraftKings in particular as he picks up a start today and he projects for an insane amount of ownership. Oladipo has 29% usage this year but has hit only 28% of his shots. Brooklyn has decent wing defense, but Oladipo’s DraftKings price seems worth some exposure, just probably not 70% with how bad he’s looked so far. His shot will start to fall at some point, but I’m not sure I want to bank on that if he’s owned by more than half the field. Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner have fine prices for the matchup and I don’t mind either, though Oladipo in the lineup as well as T.J. Warren certainly cuts into their upside.
Caris LeVert has filled it up since Kyrie Irving went out as he averaged 45.5 fantasy points in his last three games. I’m not inclined to point chase him at a ton of ownership, but he seems worth some looks, particularly after he dropped 51.25 fantasy points with 29% usage on a comparably tough Toronto team last time out. Spencer Dinwiddie is a more appropriately priced option but he’ll be higher-owned. It seems like some exposure should go to both guys but the pace-down against a mostly solid defense may not be the spot to load up.
A New Minnesota Squad in Toronto
D’Angelo Russell is questionable to make his debut tonight and that would open a lot of opportunity again for the other Wolves guards if he misses again. Malik Beasley had 29% usage in 29 minutes in his Minnesota debut while Jordan McLaughlin had 37 minutes and 11 assists with 17% usage. Despite the ugly matchup, both guys are cheap enough to want exposure if Russell misses again. Russell also seems fine but a bit overpriced if he’s in. He’ll have less run of the castle than he had in Golden State and I’d be less inclined for a lot of him as a result with his price actually up from where he was there.
Even if Russell is in, Juancho Hernangomez is in consideration with his very low price point. He played 27 minutes in that last game despite some persistent foul issues. His usage will struggle regardless of who’s in but his price is way too low for someone who could see around 30 minutes. Karl-Anthony Towns is a little expensive but seems fine as well with this team now fully built around him. He’s not a must-have but he’s going to get a decent shot at success as his usage will likely pop up more than the 22% he had in the first game with this new Minnesota lineup.
Follow us on Twitter @Stokastic_Com
Toronto’s side looks well-priced for a game that should be a pace-up for them. Kyle Lowry being out again would consolidate things enough to put Fred VanVleet more in play but both look passable if Lowry is in. Serge Ibaka had a shockingly poor game versus Brooklyn last time out but he’s in a good spot with his price where it is in this matchup. I also have no issue with Pascal Siakam despite a much tougher price for him. He’s had two poor games in a row but he had over 20 shots in both.
Terence Davis would be more in play if Lowry is out after he picked up a start without him last game. Davis actually only had one first half stint last game thanks to Matt Thomas heating up off the bench but he still reached 30 minutes and 35 fantasy points. He’s had over 35 fantasy points in three of his last four games, the majority of which were off the bench.
Orlando Gets a Big NBA DFS Boost vs. Atlanta
The Magic are well-priced for a home game against Atlanta in a spot where Vegas gives them a 10.4-point boost on their season scoring average. Nikola Vucevic seems like the guy to look at first with Clint Capela still unable to make his Atlanta debut. The Hawks are coming off of a double-overtime game yesterday and they’re already iffy inside. Vucevic had over 47 fantasy points in his last two starts and his price is mostly appropriate but offers upside if Atlanta is able to hang in there tonight.
Evan Fournier is too cheap for his minutes and the matchup. The same is true, but slightly less so, for Aaron Gordon. Atlanta’s 111.1 defensive rating will give both a shot at usefulness. I’d be less inclined for Markelle Fultz at his price but he’s still playable. Even guys like Terrence Ross and Michael Carter-Williams wouldn’t be out of play for me thanks to the pace-up and how bad Atlanta’s defense is.
Be sure to check out our YouTube channel!
It may be tough for Atlanta to get up for this one with the back-to-back after a double-overtime game versus New York but they have some playable options. Trae Young played 48 minutes last night but he put up 65.25 fantasy points in his last game versus Orlando. John Collins played 50 minutes last night as he put up 60.5 fantasy points. He should have a bit of a tougher time against Orlando’s interior but he’s now been over 47.75 fantasy points in his last four games. It’s tough to trust either guy after that high-effort game last night but I’ll have some of both. I also don’t mind Dewayne Dedmon after he saw about 27 minutes last night excluding overtime. He’d be a little more competent against Vucevic than Damian Jones so a start for him wouldn’t be crazy to see tonight.
Can Sacramento Hang In There With Milwaukee?
Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable for personal reasons for tonight’s game. If he’s out, it seems like a spot to load up on Bucks and maybe even Kings. Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe would be near must-plays with both guys over 1.5 fantasy points per minute when Giannis is off the court this year. Giannis would be the most appealing option if he’s available. Bledsoe has more stable minutes thanks to George Hill’s absence so he would be playable for NBA DFS but much less appealing if Giannis is in.
Sacramento’s prospects look better if Giannis is out, obviously. Either way, they’ll need guys to play above their heads and shoot them in the game. De’Aaron Fox is priced well for the matchup and he had 56.25 fantasy points against Milwaukee last month. He’d likely get some decent looks from deep here. Nemanja Bjelica’s run seems secure with Richaun Holmes still out. Buddy Hield’s been able to earn minutes off the bench when he plays well and there’s a decent possibility he’d have to shoot them into the game. He and Bogdan Bogdanovic are interesting tournament plays regardless of whether Giannis is in or out. I don’t trust Harry Giles to match the career high in minutes he saw last game with 27 in a low-paced spot versus San Antonio. Giles is a passable value dart throw who has a high likelihood to be played off the floor.
Other NBA DFS Notes
- Andrew Wiggins debuted to 26% usage for Golden State in a tough spot against the Lakers. It’s not much better for him today against Miami’s 106.6 defensive rating and low pace but he’s playable at his price. Ky Bowman is low-usage value for Golden State and he had 11 assists as the new starting point guard in that same matchup. Marquese Chriss had 12-for-15 shooting in 27 minutes against the Lakers and he’s in play again today but hard to bank on with his rising price and Draymond Green expected back in the lineup today.
- In the same matchup, Jimmy Butler remains questionable but the guys who get the most boost from his absence, Kendrick Nunn and Goran Dragic, are both now priced up. I don’t mind stabs at either if Butler is out given the 110.3 defensive rating for Golden State and the high usage both have seen sans Butler. It’s also worth noting Jae Crowder debuted to 35 minutes for Miami as he put up 45.75 fantasy points versus Portland. It’s a back-to-back for the Heat so he may not see quite that much run but he’s certainly an interesting play at his price.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags
- Devin Booker will likely have to shoot the Suns into their game tonight at the Lakers. Booker’s price is mostly appropriate while Deandre Ayton and Kelly Oubre feel a bit too expensive for the matchup. Ayton is questionable and his absence would be very problematic in this spot against Los Angeles, but it would make Cheick Diallo an interesting value play with no other bigs available. LeBron James and Anthony Davis look perfectly fine on the other side and Davis could feast whether Ayton is in or out.
- I’m willing to go back to Kristaps Porzingis after his foul issues killed me versus Washington on Friday. Porzingis then rested on the back half of their back-to-back, but he had three games over 56 fantasy points sans Luka Doncic before that shocking dud at the Wizards. Porzingis may go overlooked thanks to the size of the slate and the matchup versus Utah. I wouldn’t sleep on Mike Conley on the other side with his last four games over 32.25 fantasy points since he’s been back in the starting lineup.
