The Switch & Hedge 2/6 NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for DraftKings | FanDuel

We’re down to five games today as the trade deadline looms within the next few hours for today’s NBA DFS picks. Robert Covington will make his Rockets debut (but seemingly not on NBA DFS sites) while the 76ers will not have their new recruits in Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson for their big rivalry game against Milwaukee. And tonight’s main event is a Western Conference slugfest between the aforementioned Rockets and the Lakers in Los Angeles, one where we don’t yet know Russell Westbrook‘s status. There’s a lot to discuss for a five-game so let’s get to it with the Feb. 6 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!

Be sure to read EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.

Also, we will be streaming on Twitch this week! Check out the show schedule below:

A Big Western Conference Battle in Los Angeles

James Harden could have his massive usage role once again with Russell Westbrook questionable today. The Lakers are a tough matchup defensively but Harden without Westbrook and now Clint Capela is worth a lot of exposure. He has 47% usage with a 42% assist rate and 11% rebound rate without both on the floor. I’d be willing to get a lot of him if Westbrook is out, while Westbrook is the better play if he’s in.

I don’t know what to make of Danuel House’s 45.75 fantasy points last time with Westbrook out. He had just 13% usage but chipped in nine boards while shooting 6-for-11 from 3. It feels more like an aberration with his 10.5% rebound rate overall when Westbrook and Capela are off the floor. I’m not inclined to pay his or P.J. Tucker’s elevated prices for this particular matchup, especially since Robert Covington will be available for the game (but seemingly not on DFS sites). I’d rather take a stab at the cheaper Eric Gordon if Westbrook is out after he shot 6-for-22 with 34% usage in that last game Westbrook missed.

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LeBron James and Anthony Davis are in good situations with this pace-up against a Houston frontcourt now devoid of bigs. Rim runs, easy putbacks, they are all in play in this game against a Rockets team who will spread the floor. I don’t mind either guy because these Rockets are not built to defend a team with the size and power of James and Davis. I think I’d be more inclined for Danny Green or Rajon Rondo at their prices than Kyle Kuzma, but Kuzma’s low ownership is intriguing. He’s had over 35.25 fantasy points in two out of his last three games with decent success off the bench. Scoring will be a need against Houston and Kuzma could hit the boards hard, something that helped him get to his upside against the Spurs and Portland while his lack of rebounding led to his failure against Sacramento.

A Rivalry Renewed in Milwaukee

Philadelphia likely won’t have new acquisitions Alec Burks or Glenn Robinson for their face-off tonight with Milwaukee. The 76ers seem to be kind of a mess with Ben Simmons calling guys out and Al Horford responding to the media. There is some risk they will get dusted in this spot. But I still don’t hate attempts to load on these guys, Joel Embiid in particular. Embiid was a force last year versus Milwaukee with 77.8 fantasy points per game in three games. His usage has been iffy lately, but he seems underowned with his price where it is.

Simmons and Tobias Harris look fine to me. I’d prefer Simmons with Harris a little lost lately and Shake Milton starting to do a bit more. I’m kind of intrigued by Milton in this spot as an unabashed shooter who Milwaukee could challenge to chuck some 3’s. If he heats up, he could be sneaky at 2% projected ownership. He or Horford will get the chance to bomb from deep.

Giannis Antetokounmpo had one of his worst days this year with 8-for-27 shooting in his Christmas Day game versus Philadelphia. They do some things defensively that will make it harder than usual on him but I think he will come out swinging today. He’d be more appealing to me if Westbrook is in, making Harden’s price tag less of a move. I also don’t mind Khris Middleton at his price tag with how good he’s been this year. He had 51 fantasy points in that same Christmas game versus Phildelphia and he’s been a beast with 51% shooting from the floor and 44% from deep this year.

A Solid Spot for Lillard to Get Back to His NBA DFS Heater

Damian Lillard struggled as I hypothesized he might versus Denver with a ton of trapping and pindowns resulting in an 8-for-23 day despite 36% usage. Lillard can definitely find more success against the Spurs’ 110 defensive rating and the Blazers as a whole are in a good spot to bounce back after that disappointing blowout. He shot unsustainably well over his hot streak but this situation against San Antonio is as good as any to get back to that rhythm. He has a 37% usage rate with a 42% assist rate and 1.99 fantasy points per average since his run began on Jan. 20.

Hassan Whiteside was limited by foul trouble against Denver last time out, though he was also largely ineffective against Nikola Jokic. He’s in play for me today with his price down and the 30% ownership seems fair. I’d favor him over C.J. McCollum or Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is pretty much a non-play to me in NBA DFS right now with 30 fantasy points or fewer in his last four games and his usage down but McCollum seems fine, particularly in lineups without Lillard.

LaMarcus Aldridge is at a solid price for the game and I don’t mind him even though his chalky 42% expected ownership seems a bit much. DeMar DeRozan feels a bit underowned for this matchup against Portland’s 110.3 defensive rating, as does Dejounte Murray. Both guys project for under 10% ownership and while Murray is always a minutes risk, DeRozan’s role is secure with upside after he hung 48.75 fantasy points on a much better-defending Lakers squad.

Can Chicago Live Up to Their Half of the New Orleans NBA DFS Pace-Up?

The Bulls are one of the league’s worst offenses with their 103.2 offensive rating and 34% shooting from deep. They’ll likely need to score more to keep up with the fast-paced Pelicans with a ton of ownership expected to go to pretty much everyone in the rotation. Zach LaVine is the first place to look with his 31% usage and I wouldn’t hate him today, 40% projected ownership aside. He put up 51.25 fantasy points the last time he faced New Orleans, though that was with Jrue Holiday on the sidelines. Tomas Satoransky seems like a safer play at his price with he and Thaddeus Young likely to see steady minutes in the low-to-mid 30s and the pace allowing more chances at easy looks and peripherals.

Chandler Hutchison is probable and he’s averaged 26.75 fantasy points in his last three games. His usage swung upwards in tougher games versus Indiana and Toronto where LaVine had fewer good looks but the pace here gives Hutchison a chance to do more. Coby White also projects to be chalky as a value play and he’s had 25 minutes in each of his last two games. He can certainly heat up and earn more time but it feels like his ceiling would be low in lineups that expect LaVine to find success.

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The Pelicans’ side remains priced well enough to play even with the Bulls’ low pace and better-than-people-realize 106.4 defensive rating. Brandon Ingram has over 48 fantasy points in his last two games with 26-29% usage. He feels like a safer play than Jrue Holiday, who is also still a risk to get dealt before tonight’s game. If Holiday stays, it could be a nice spot to bounce back with the uncertainty of a move possibly factoring into his mindset over the last few games. Lonzo Ball has been steady recently and had double-digit rebounds in his last two games. He has assist upside thanks to a lot of court time with Zion Williamson, who is also due for a bounce back on his 5-for-19 shooting in his last game versus Milwaukee. These four all interest me despite the pace-down.

In lineups where I leave out the other guys, I’m more willing to go to Derrick Favors. He hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in his last four games but he could clean up on the boards if he sees that run and the Bulls brick the game away as they do. Otherwise, I’d be more inclined to hope the Bulls hang in and score beyond their usual capabilities while the core Pelicans put together solid days.

An Ugly One on Paper at MSG

Orlando takes its low-paced world tour to New York for a battle with the comparably sluggish Knicks. The game has an NBA DFS slate-low 205.5 combined total and the Knicks’ side looks mostly brutal. Julius Randle’s price is a little too high. Elfrid Payton has been priced up exponentially after his 59.25 fantasy points game in overtime versus Cleveland where he had a triple-double of 17 points, 11 rebounds and 15 assists. He’s looking good but with R.J. Barrett likely to return, the margins will get narrow for their guys against Orlando’s low pace and 105.1 defensive rating.

The Magic side looks slightly better thanks to the Knicks’ 110.4 defensive rating. Nikola Vucevic is at a solid price, though he has been at 42.25 fantasy points or fewer in his last six games. His minutes have been there so it feels like he should bounce back if Aaron Gordon comes back down to Earth. Gordon had 44.5 fantasy points in his last two games spurred on by double-digit rebounds in both. I’m not inclined to play Vucevic and Gordon together currently. Evan Fournier looks fine to me while Markelle Fultz seems a bit overpriced. I also wouldn’t sleep on Michael Carter-Williams as value. He’s a solid per-minute guy and he’s seen 21 minutes or more in his last five games with D.J. Augustin out.

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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