There are six games today and the most important news for today’s NBA DFS picks is not out yet. I’ll discuss it at more length below but we desperately need some news on James Harden and Clint Capela to figure out how to approach today’s slate. But we have some interesting options and one former value play who’ll be unbelievably chalky industrywide. So let’s ignore that my former employer was acquired at a valuation of $450 million dollars today and focus on the potential to build all of our net worths with the Jan. 29 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
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A Need For Houston News
James Harden and Clint Capela are currently marked as questionable in a game at Portland with a slate-high 238.5 combined total. If they’re out, Russell Westbrook is the play of the day. He’s a viable play even if both make it in, but when they’re out, Wesbrook averages 1.9 fantasy points per minute. Harden saw vigorous defensive attention the last time Houston played Portland on Jan. 15, as he put up a 20% usage rate and 37 fantasy points. Westbrook had 69.75 fantasy points on 11-for-22 shooting in the same game. Westbrook deserves more than his current projected sub-10% ownership regardless of who’s available.
P.J. Tucker would gain in appeal if Capela misses after he surprisingly played 32 minutes at center last game despite a matchup with Utah. It’s possible Isaiah Hartenstein would pick up minutes if Hassan Whiteside smashes against them with Capela out but we just saw how that song goes in their last game. Hartenstein is a tournament dart toss at best unless you know he’ll pick up the start.
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C.J. McCollum and Hassan Whiteside look like the most appealing Rockets to me. McCollum returned to the lineup with 36 minutes and 21 shot attempts in their last game. Damian Lillard continued to pour it on in his last game with 84 fantasy points on 14-for-23 shooting despite McCollum back in the lineup. It’s possible both get there again today but I think Lillard will slow down a little. He’s not out of play but that price on Lillard is tough to swallow with McCollum active. Carmelo Anthony rounds out my Portland interest but I am not ever dying to have him. He’ll be chalky tonight and he’s definitely seen less opportunity when Lillard and McCollum dominate the ball.
Battle of the Back-To-Backs in MSG
Both the Knicks and Grizzlies are on a back-to-back in their game tonight. But the game environment could be a good one with the pace Memphis brings to the table and both sides’ weak defenses. Marcus Morris and Eflrid Payton both look to be solid values who can do more with the pace and R.J. Barrett’s continued absence offering more secure minutes and opportunity. Julius Randle remains a little overpriced but he certainly has the biggest ceiling. He can do more damage paceful matchup compared to yesterday’s disappointing 33.75 fantasy points against Charlotte.
I’m also somewhat into Mitchell Robinson with his price point. He was up to 26 minutes last night and it’s possible he offers a decent counter to what Jonas Valanciunas can do on the opposite side. Valanciunas is in a strong spot for Memphis’ side. He went for 48 fantasy points in 34 minutes yesterday, the most he’s played in two months. It’s possible he ends up somewhat limited today but I like him a lot on paper (and some Brandon Clarke exposure in lineups where I don’t get there).
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Dillon Brooks could see a slight opportunity cut with Jae Crowder back in the lineup but he’s in consideration for me with how reliable his usage has been. He is points dependent but had 32% usage against a much tougher Denver team last night. Jaren Jackson and Ja Morant look fine but neither screams out to me as much. I’d slightly favor Jackson between the two but a big Morant showing at the Garden would fit his M.O. of putting up big games when the spotlight is on him.
An Appealing NBA DFS Matchup in Brooklyn
Brooklyn gets a 7.3-point boost on their season scoring average from Vegas in their home game versus the Pistons. Andre Drummond also gets one of the better Center matchups in the league against the Nets’ mediocre interior. He’s currently questionable with a wrist injury, but if he’s in, it’s a great spot. It would also be a great spot for Christian Wood if Drummond were out, though one where we’d likely see another Thon Maker start with Wood behind him. Drummond’s status is a key to watch as a potential top play or, if he’s out, an opener of potential must-have value.
Derrick Rose is also expected back today after he missed last game due to some knee soreness. His knee issues are perennially terrifying but he’s playable if you’re willing to swallow that risk. Rose just played 37 minutes, including overtime, against the Nets over the weekend and hung 45.5 fantasy points on them. His price is high enough to not be a must-have but he’s in consideration for me. The same applies for Reggie Jackson after he was a chalk disappointment with Rose out. He shot 5-for-14 there and his usage has been steadily upwards of 30% with his minutes up to 25 last game as well.
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Kyrie Irving looks like a particularly strong play on the Nets’ side. He had 65 fantasy points in that same game against Detroit on 15-for-30 shooting as he played 40 minutes. Detroit’s 109.3 defensive rating won’t offer much to stop Irving if his heart is in it after a personal absence from Sunday’s game and some Twitter rumors of potential retirement stemming from Kobe Bryant’s passing. It’s a strong spot for Irving but an appropriate price so I’m willing to be at least with the field on him.
Joe Harris looks like a decent value but with less stable usage. I’ll work him into some lineups if value doesn’t open up but he’s unlikely to have much of a ceiling. I feel similarly about Taurean Prince and Jarrett Allen. Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert are at playable prices but I’d be more into them in lineups without Irving. Irving’s ownership could get lofty so those two as pivots are tournament plays to consider.
I Miss the Old Poeltl, the Minimum-Priced Poeltl
Jakob Poeltl is expected to start again with LaMarcus Aldridge sidelined. At minimum prices, I was a fan with how solid he’s been at around a fantasy point per minute when Aldridge is out and what I assumed would be a start for him. He played 36 minutes and went off for 40.25 fantasy points . But now with the matchup against Utah, he projects for 58% ownership in a much less favorable matchup and I would want to come under the field on that. The matchup versus Chicago was one of the best in the league for centers. Poeltl can produce again versus Utah but it feels a lot riskier with his price all the way up.
It may be more logical to go to DeMar DeRozan with his 1.3 fantasy points per minute average without Aldridge. It’s going to be tough sledding for all of these guys but DeRozan will see a lot of work with a 39% usage rate in that last game. I also have to point out how insanely cheap Dejounte Murray is but he’s really been lost in San Antonio’s rotations lately. I could see having a little of him and Patty Mills or Bryn Forbes in lineups without DeRozan but Murray is very hard to trust at this point.
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Bojan Bogdanovic is an appealing value play on Utah’s side but I’m not as into the rest of the team. Joe Ingles is fine but Mike Conley has started to come for his opportunity lately. The same also applies for Jordan Clarkson but I still don’t think Conley himself is a smash play like the field’s ownership currently indicates. He was up to 25 minutes last game but he’s only cracked 30 fantasy points once in his last 12 games. Maybe he gets there today but 35% ownership seems lofty even with his cheap price.
Victor Oladipo’s NBA DFS Return
Victor Oladipo will return on a minutes limit and I’m not likely to get to any of Indiana as a result. Oladipo was a high-usage monster last season but this is a very different Pacers team with a lot of guys on the wing who can handle themselves well when given opportunity. Domantas Sabonis looks fine, especially if Myles Turner misses, but I’d like to see how the rotations break down before going the way of any Pacers.
Thaddeus Young is the most appealing Bull to me with a reasonable price. His NBA DFS ceiling seems likely to not get much higher than the 28.25 fantasy points he had last game but on a slate with mostly iffy value thus far, I’m okay with him. The same goes for Tomas Satoransky with his price down. Zach LaVine could have upside with his 1.3 fantasy points per minute when Lauri Markkanen is off the court and one 56.5-fantasy-point day versus Indiana this year. The field’s 20% projected ownership seems like more than enough of him though.
A Fine But Not Spectacular NBA DFS Game in Sacramento
I’m fine continuing to target De’Aaron Fox but I am not sold on the chalk ownership for Bogdan Bogdanovic. He saw just 15% usage last game as he’s been somewhat lost in the starting group and Buddy Hield has breathed down his neck off the bench. Bogdanovic sees very little court time without Fox or Hield and that’s not the best for his prospects to spike an upside. Hield’s price is up a lot by comparison but the run he gets in the second unit with no one to take looks away from him is a very appealing situation.
I’d personally be more inclined for Fox and Hield than Bogdanovic despite the discount the latter represents. I also wouldn’t sleep on Nemanja Bjelica with how steady he is and how capable he is to randomly spike an upside. This lower-paced game against a decent defense doesn’t seem like his ideal spot but he continues to be priced well with reliable minutes as Marvin Bagley remains out.
Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander grade out as approximately the same NBA DFS value play for me with Dennis Schroder just a bit behind. Paul will be back in the lineup after a personal absence in his last game and that makes Schroder’s big 43.25 fantasy points day with 41 minutes last game very unlikely to occur again. Steven Adams payed 24 minutes last game and he’d be an interesting value today if he can get up to 26 minutes with his ankle issues. I’m not sure he has massive upside but he’s a viable pivot to a much chalkier Jakob Poeltl.
When one door opens two more open up but, only if you’re looking.
thanks dude, it’s more just a self-effacing joke than something I’m actually upset by. but you know me, always appreciate the positive outlooks!