NBA DFS Switch And Hedge: Oklahoma City And Dallas Bring The Annual Tanking Season To The Bubble

With the Orlando bubble chock full of real life and NBA DFS excitement, it’s easy to forget that we’re in our last week of the restarted regular season. Normally the last week or two of the NBA DFS season turns into a complete abomination with random guys playing big minutes and stars suddenly disappearing before games or during them. Based on the news thus far for Oklahoma City and Dallas and a lot of teams locked into their playoff spots, we’re now firmly in that time of year even with the differing circumstances. There will be a bevy of value plays and total land mines galore to discuss, so let’s get into it in the NBA DFS Switch And Hedge!


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Dumpster Fire Lineup Time For Oklahoma City

Yesterday, Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel were late scratches in a confusing injury report situation that saw numerous changes to their statuses. Today we know relatively early: There will be no Adams, Noel, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari or Dennis Schroder for Oklahoma City. Chris Paul can pay off his price tag if he sees his full run on a back-to-back, a risky situation but one with upside. I wouldn’t get above his projected 33% ownership, but the man has a 28.5% usage rate and 55% assist rate in a limited sample size with Gilgeous-Alexander, Schroder and Gallinari off the court. A fade could pay off if he gets pulled early, and it could crush your night if he gets the chance to be a full-powered Paul, even with a team of scrubs.

Darius Bazley paid off big time yesterday as value that ended up lower-owned than he would normally. He had 37.25 fantasy points on 26% usage with his 5-for-8 shooting from deep a particular difference maker. Bazley will find ownership after that outlier effort, but he may be risky as chalk. The same goes for Mike Muscala, who had 20.25 fantasy points in 28 minutes versus Washington. These guys aren’t the greatest rebounders, so they’ll likely be more dependent on scoring than your usual replacement big. I also wouldn’t totally omit Luguentz Dort or Hamidou Diallo, both guys who can contribute something by sheer run of minutes. Diallo in particular has shown an interest in soaking up the second unit usage.

The Suns remain in competition for the play-in game, so they should go all out even against a shorthanded Thunder squad. Deandre Ayton appeals to me the most, but his 47% ownership is very lofty. I could see moving away in tournaments based solely on his ownership, but he should be almost a lock in cash. Devin Booker will be highly owned too, though less so than Ayton. He’s only had one game under 34% usage in the bubble thus far, and with the need for a win, I like Booker despite the lofty ownership expected for him. He likely can get there even if the Suns blow out the undermanned Thunder as a likely initiator of such a situation.

Ricky Rubio and Cam Johnson are viable plays, albeit at lower levels of interest for me. Johnson has played above his head some, particularly as a rebounder, and there’s a lot of value on the slate for someone who can likely get to his output. The same goes for Mikal Bridges, who’s at least a bit cheaper to be a theoretical value pivot. But this is largely a Booker/Ayton show for me.

Dallas Also Won’t Be Trying Much Today

Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis and underrated bubble performer Dorian Finney-Smith will all sit for Dallas today. Boban Marjanovic will be a likely chalk play as a result at value prices industrywide. It seems less likely he will get a ceremonial short shift this time, as he did versus the Clippers in his last game, with Rudy Gobert and the Jazz’s low pace on the other side. There is always a chance Marjanovic’s minutes get jerked around, but at a minimum price I don’t see how you wouldn’t get a good amount of Marjanovic in an optimizer. Maxi Kleber is another highly owned pivot or addition to Marjanovic who seems a bit less risky. Trey Burke also appears like he should be a safer play given what we know of his ability to soak up usage, but there are a lot of guys here who may take more given their status in the Dallas pecking order. That said, I’ll still be heavy on Burke at his price and would think he’s less of an outright risk to not play than Marjanovic.

The guys who could submarine a Burke value play? Tim Hardaway Jr. has a near-29% usage rate without Doncic and Porzingis this year. He’ll certainly try to get his at less ownership than all of the value Mavs. Seth Curry played 21 minutes last game and could see a jump if he’s close to full health. He also sees upticks in usage and assists sans Doncic and Porzingis. Delon Wright can also soak up minutes and opportunity, while J.J. Barea is always a risk to break a slate if he actually gets court time. Utah is mostly small besides Gobert, so it’s possible we will see some weird small lineups to combat them and draw Gobert’s attention on drive and kicks.

Utah’s side largely depends on if the currently questionable Donovan Mitchell plays or not. Mitchell’s absence would make every Jazz player — specifically Mike Conley, Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson — a better play. If Mitchell is in, he’s a low-owned tournament play. The aforementioned Gobert looks playable either way, especially with a lot of people likely to take value center plays like Marjanovic or Muscala. Gobert can really dominate the inside with impunity, and his floor is nearly as good as the value plays’ ceiling.

UPDATE: Donovan Mitchell was ruled out right before I was about to publish this. Adjusting for their rates without Mitchell, Clarkson jumps to a 31% usage rate as one might expect. He’s a better play now. Conley gains a bit of usage to climb to 26%, and that could be higher as the sample size grows, especially if he doesn’t play alongside Clarkson initially. I also wouldn’t hate a shot at Miye Oni or Emmanuel Mudiay if they start in Mitchell’s place. Mitchell is an undisputed ball hog, and this Dallas team will not offer up a ton of resistance to whomever soaks up his 31% usage rate.

What To Make Of Milwaukee?

The Bucks shockingly played their guys full minutes in their Saturday night main event tilt versus Doncic and the Mavs. I still have concerns these guys get their full allotment of minutes, especially against a possible Eastern Conference Finals opponent. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be solidly owned once again, and he certainly has a floor that can get there. But all the value on the slate will likely continue to push his ownership upwards, and that scares me if we get to high-20s minutes rather than 30-35. I might be more inclined to be OK with an Eric Bledsoe at a reasonable rate with his minutes still trending upwards as he plays into shape.

Toronto just played yesterday, and their core guys like Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam all saw over 35 minutes. Coach Nick Nurse hasn’t shown much of a predisposition to avoid playing his guys big minutes on island games. But on a back-to-back as a middle-of-the-day game on the schedule? I’m not sold. Toronto-Milwaukee has a slate-high 227.5-point combined total, but I think the game comes with real risk, at least in terms of tapping into tournament-winning upside, in this final week of the regular season.

Perhaps The Day To Stop Chasing Michael Porter Jr.

I’ve extolled the virtues of Michael Porter Jr. as much as anyone, with one caveat: He gets less interesting with Jamal Murray back. And that looked like the correct assessment until Denver’s last game versus Utah went to double overtime to help Porter exceed value once again. I don’t want to be there much today. The value on the slate will enable people to continue to chase Porter’s rising price, but his usage was down to 18% last game, with the 45 double-overtime minutes helping him get where he had to go. Porter’s rebounding has also been a big asset in his hot run, but that could be tougher against Los Angeles without two overtimes to pad stats. Denver’s prices overall don’t do it for me, but I’d take Nikola Jokic over him and maybe even a much cheaper Paul Millsap in the hopes his defense is needed versus the Lakers’ bigs.

The minutes have mostly been there for LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and LeBron had his best game in the bubble last time out. That said, both guys seem appropriately owned at 35% and 22% ownership, respectively, and I wouldn’t want to load up. The Lakers remain locked into the No. 1 seed, and the floor for both guys should be fine despite some of Davis’ recent struggles. But I’d question the ceiling a bit and might be more inclined to go for Jokic on the other side with Denver still playing to lock down the No. 2 seed.

Miami Is Back To Full Strength

Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic return for the Heat, while Kendrick Nunn remains out. Butler is an interesting play with some of the same minutes risk that’s an issue across the board tonight. Butler’s priced well and has upside if he sees his full run after missing a few games due to injury. The same goes for Dragic. I‘d be less inclined to go back to injury aided heroes like Tyler Herro or Kelly Olynyk, though Herro could be a tournament play in lineups without Dragic or Butler after what he showed as a lead scorer.

Malcolm Brogdon looks to be the strongest play for me on Indiana’s side with very little ownership projected. He’ll be fine if currently questionable bubble beast T.J. Warren is in today and he’ll be better if Warren misses the game. Warren is still not a guy I want a ton of today, especially with all his hype over being the bubble’s leading scorer. He shot 15-for-22 last game to get to 47.75 fantasy points, a number that hardly exceeds his value. If he shoots the lights out again, he’ll get there. If Warren has another 7-for-20 day, you are screwed. It seems more logical to hope to capture Brogdon, Victor Oladipo or even Aaron Holiday’s upside after he’s played at least 34 minutes in every bubble game.


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Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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