NBA DFS Switch And Hedge: In A Day Of Uncertainty, Should You Lock In Russell Westbrook?

It’s an early start for NBA DFS today, ironically for a slate where we could use a lot more time. Brooklyn will be without its core stars, the Magic will miss every wing who’s gotten major minutes for them this year, Houston will be without James Harden, Philadelphia will be without at least Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Josh Richardson … it’s going to be a tough one. Be ready for anything and everything. Let’s try to burn through the twists and turns in today’s NBA DFS slate in the Switch and Hedge!


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Russell Westbrook Lock Day?

Russell Westbrook sees a 42% usage rate and a 52.5% assist rate without Harden. San Antonio’s 111.1 defensive rating is not good enough to stop him. Westbrook’s price is too low for that kind of usage and assist upside with the entire offense likely to run through him. Westbrook’s 54% projected ownership is high but actually might not be high enough relative to his opportunity.

Unlike Harden, though, Westbrook’s high-usage role doesn’t come with usage boosts for anyone else. Ben McLemore and Austin Rivers can soak up the remaining usage, but both guys actually see their usage trend slightly downward on the court with Westbrook sans Harden. McLemore gets a usage boost when Harden is on the court without Westbrook, so it could be a bit of a change relative to the public’s expectations. As a result, I don’t think I’d get much of the peripheral Rockets other than Jeff Green, who’s seen upwards of 28 minutes in the bubble.

Derrick White is questionable for San Antonio after a knee injury sidelined him last game. If he’s out, there’ll be more usage to go around for Dejounte Murray at a price that allows some upside. White’s fine if he’s in the game, but Murray would look better if he’s out. Jakob Poeltl has been good in his last two games, particularly on the boards with double-digit rebounds in both. He’s a risk to lose some minutes if Houston’s small ball thrives, but Poeltl should theoretically be needed to guard the rim somewhat against Westbrook’s aggression.

Rudy Gay would get more minutes if Poeltl sees his court time limited, and he’s been over 33.75 fantasy points in his last three games. It’d be easier to get there for me in lineups without Poeltl or if White misses the game. I’d also only consider DeMar DeRozan if White sits. The usage hasn’t been there reliably for DeRozan, and his price requires him showing his full upside.

Orlando-Brooklyn Will Miss A Hilarious Amount Of Players

Brooklyn’s Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen and Joe Harris will be sidelined (hopefully for real this time), while Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross and Mo Bamba will join Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac on the injured list for Orlando. Orlando’s side has less of a precedent with Nikola Vucevic largely playing alongside at least one high-usage wing all season long. Vucevic should see 30% usage as well as upticks in rebounding and assists. His only barrier is Brooklyn’s defense, which will be way worse without Allen in the middle. Vucevic will be chalky at almost 40% projected ownership, but he’s hard to see fail, especially in cash.

D.J. Augustin will have to shoot more and James Ennis has shown some more rebound and scoring upside with the lack of guys. Both are in play for me with Augustin more compelling due to lead ball-handler duty. I’d also want some of Markelle Fultz off the bench with him up to 33 overtime-aided minutes last game, as he put up 18 shots and notched 10 assists. It’s a very good spot for Fultz, especially if Steve Clifford remains willing to play him alongside Augustin.

The Nets will have all the usage available with no LeVert and Harris. But as we saw for their shocking win versus Milwaukee, that doesn’t mean you’ll have many outlier games. Chris Chiozza put up 29.75 fantasy points in 31 minutes in that one as the top fantasy scorer, but Tyler Johnson got the first crack at minutes. Chiozza looks better on paper, but I’d consider Tyler a viable pivot. I don’t fully trust the chalky Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, but his price is hard to ignore with a bump to around a 22% usage rate without the core Nets.

Rodions Kurucs will likely pick up a nominal center start, and he looks like passable value. Jeremiah Martin has been a heater off the bench with 28% usage and a 27% assist rate, though he’d look better if Chiozza starts to ensure more usage for Martin along with a chance to own more minutes. Martin and Dzanan Musa are two guys whose minutes will be insecure, but they are value priced with the ability to open things up on the slate. I’ll have some very risky exposure towards both.

Philadelphia Has Some Questions

Embiid and Richardson have been added to Simmons as 76ers who won’t play today. But Tobias Harris and Al Horford are the bigger question marks with the Sixers’ motivation questionable. Harris and Horford are playable if we know they’ll see their full run of minutes, but that seems like a risky proposition. Kyle O’Quinn would be a chalk play if we knew he would start for Horford, though Norvel Pelle has been ahead of him in the rotation thus far. The only guy who might be “safe” is Alec Burks, especially if Shake Milton sees reduced run alongside an absent Harris and Horford. There are genuinely too many questions to analyze this game without knowing Horford’s and Harris’ status, but I’d be willing to play whomever remains if they’re out.

Deandre Ayton missed a COVID test and lost a chunk of minutes in yesterday’s game as a result. The Suns still need to keep winning to have a shot in the play-in game, so I’d have no issue going back to him today with a reduced price. Same for Devin Booker with his usage above 34% in all but one bubble game. These guys will play big minutes if the game is close, and they did save themselves some court time yesterday thanks to Ayton’s mistake and a blowout game. I also don’t hate Mikal Bridges or Cameron Johnson, but the former is a low-usage guy and the latter has been very lucky with rebounds. Neither is a priority like Ayton or Booker.

Dallas’ Questionable Motivations

Dallas sat Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis and Dorian Finney-Smith yesterday, and it seemed like they may not have a ton of concern for winning again before the playoffs. But they can make the sixth seed, and a battle versus Portland — who desperately needs the win — should bring out some competitive juices. I’ll have a good amount of Doncic and Porzingis, but I still don’t see how to get much Finney-Smith. Doncic and Porzingis should have big upside if they see their full run of minutes against Portland’s 111.5 defensive rating, and by now we all know their many positive merits when their prices are reasonable.

Damian Lillard has been a monster in the bubble, and his tête-à-tête with the Clippers may have motivated him even further. He looks solid today, though I’d like to find the money to get to Doncic more or go down to Westbrook. Playing all three stud guards is likely to be a popular approach. C.J. McCollum lurks as a pivot to Lillard in a game with a 238.5 combined total that’s the highest on the slate. This one could see both McCollum and Lillard get there in a meaningful way. The same is true for Jusuf Nurkic who’s continued to be a bubble stud and will present some problems for Porzingis or whatever centers they throw at him. You could play any of the core Portland rotational guys and get no argument from me with them likely to play big minutes against a comparably weak defense. This doesn’t seem like a game to fade.

A Game That Doesn’t Matter

New Orleans and Sacramento have both been eliminated and the former team will now totally phone it in. Zion Williamson, Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram will sit, opening up a ton of opportunity for the remaining Pelicans. I worry about Lonzo Ball’s minutes, but this seems like a game where he’ll be able to totally run the show. He has monster upside at his price point if he gets going. Nicolo Melli can soak up some of the Williamson and Ingram usage, and he intrigues me, as do the extra minutes that J.J. Redick and Josh Hart can get. Frank Jackson always weasels his way into extra run in these situations, and I’ll have some of him at near-minimum prices. It wouldn’t be shocking if Jackson or Nickeil Alexander-Walker sees a big boost in role. It’s hard to trust any of these guys, but there’s definitely opportunity against a weak Sacramento squad.

Sacramento will be without De’Aaron Fox and Richaun Holmes on their side, and that opens up a few interesting plays. Alex Len picked up a start last game with Holmes out, and he should be a better fit for this matchup than the one versus Houston. There’s some risk he loses run to Harry Giles due to the pace but both guys look interesting at very cheap prices. I‘d lean the most on Bogdan Bogdanovic given his 26% usage and 24% assist rate with Fox off the floor. Corey Joseph may pick up the nominal start at point guard, but Bogdanovic is likely to get the most time with the ball in his hands. I’d also watch Buddy Hield as a man who’ll get even more usage in the second unit with his usual risk that his minutes get truncated. And keep an eye on Jabari Parker, who saw 12 minutes last game. He had a 37.7% usage rate in that stretch, and now is the time for him to put up numbers for whatever comes next in his career.

The Rest Of The Slate

Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton played 30 and 25 minutes, respectively, without Giannis Antetokounmpo yesterday. I don’t think they get more run than that in this situation versus Washington tonight. Giannis remains a quality safe play in this matchup with some minutes risk. I’d rather have Doncic or Lillard in games that matter for them.

-I still have no issues with Troy Brown or Ish Smith given their ball-dominant roles for Washington. Their prices still allow some upside, though we saw some of the risk for Washington when Smith’s minutes were cut heavily by foul issues and a blowout last game.

-Memphis continues to need wins for their playoff aspirations but their team seems mostly reasonably priced. Dillon Brooks has had three good games in a row with over 31% usage, and he got up to 26 shot attempts last game. He’s a guy I’ve mentally tuned out recently, but he looks like a strong play. He and Brandon Clarke look like the most interesting guys to me in a game against Boston where no one besides maybe Jayson Tatum or Kemba Walker look playable on their side.


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Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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