We’re in the final days of the seeding games for the playoffs, and NBA DFS is as hard to project as ever. We have numerous players marked questionable on teams whose motivations may not be aligned with a full effort performance, uncertain rotations based upon recent games and a James Harden game without Russell Westbrook to top it all off. For a lot of people, the constantly changing NBA DFS news can be absolute chaos to keep up with. But there is a lot of opportunity with those situations. We saw yesterday that guys we discussed in here like Jeremiah Martin, Dzanan Musa and Kyle O’Quinn went off with much less ownership than they should have. There will be similar guys today that the general public just isn’t in on, and hopefully that provides an edge for YOU, a person smart enough to be on this site.
One related programming note: As the NBA regular season winds, so does my watch here at Awesemo. I mentioned it yesterday on our MLB Live Before Lock show, but this will be my last week at Awesemo as a host and writer, so the next three days will be my last few shifts writing this Switch and Hedge column. I’ve been told someone else will carry on the S&H banner (as well as the NFL Slant and Go), so keep your eyes peeled for a new voice to bring you guys this information daily. But it’s been a pleasure writing up this stuff for you all over the last two and a half years and good for my own process to write this up every weekday, so thank you for being a reader. This site and all of the talented people who create the articles and data you see on Awesemo.com have made me INFINITELY sharper as a sports analyst, DFS player, and bettor and I really encourage you guys to take in as much as you can to do the same for yourself. In this business, you have to strive to get better each day, and there is no site like Awesemo to help you to continue that growth day in and day out.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to see what I’ll be doing next and make sure to come hang on my last few Live Before Lock shows on the Awesemo YouTube channel through Friday! And with that bit of sad housekeeping for me, let’s try to close out my run strong with today’s NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
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Waiting For Oladipo
Indiana-Houston has the top combined total on the slate at 231.5. While we know T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis and Russell Westbrook will be out, we have multiple questionable Pacers in Malcolm Brogdon, Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner. Their statuses are key to know with a ton of ownership currently projected for them and this high scoring spot versus Houston. Brogdon and Oladipo look good with the extra ball-handling time without Warren if they make it in. Turner also wields a 24% usage rate in limited court time without Warren and Sabonis. If he were to play his full run, he’d have potential against that small Rockets lineup. We should know the Pacers’ injury news before lock as the first game on the slate, so watch out for news on if these potentially key guys are available.
Aaron Holiday can be playable if the other starters stay in and he’d be a top play today if they’re out. Holiday would be a lead ball handler who also plays in blowouts, including last game versus Miami. He’d be a likely candidate to take a ton of shots with 23.7% usage sans Warren and Sabonis and 25% usage when you add Brogdon, Oladipo and Turner to that off-court group. T.J. McConnell is also capable of breaking a slate if those guys are out at a very cheap price. He had a 40% assist rate with the key Pacers off the court while boosting himself to a 21% usage rate. He’s a great fit against this small Houston lineup. I’d have less love for the Justin Holiday and Doug McDermott tier of players, but they’re not entirely out of the equation. It may be more logical to try the JaKarr Sampson/Alize Johnson/Edmond Sumner tier than those guys if the starters are out. I’ll likely play the stars if they’re in and whoever’s left that’s young if they’re not.
James Harden is in a similar situation to Westbrook yesterday with his Rockets co-star out today. Westbrook disappointed as the Rockets bricked away his potential assists and got blown out by San Antonio. I’d be willing to get a lot of Harden despite that. He has a 43% usage rate and 44% assist rate in his court time without Westbrook and former teammate Clint Capela. We saw the risks of 100% exposure with Westbrook yesterday, but I still think you should have more Harden than not (and definitely start with him in cash builds). Also like yesterday, I don’t foresee landing on any other Rockets outside of Jeff Green. Eric Gordon isn’t on the injury report and could make his way back in today. It’d be hard to project his minutes to be meaningful enough to spike an upside, but they should be big enough to cut into the other peripheral Rockets like the priced-up Ben McLemore and Austin Rivers.
Who Will Play For Toronto And Philadelphia?
There has not yet been an injury report released from Philadelphia, but it’s unlikely that Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Al Horford will play full minutes with nothing to play for. All three sat out yesterday as Kyle O’Quinn and Alec Burks thrived with 45 and 34.5 fantasy points, respectively. O’Quinn remains minimum-priced industrywide and should be in play again if he starts or comes off the bench. Burks is priced up enough to not view him as a must-have, but I’d still want some tournament exposure. He and Raul Neto both had big days yesterday, and there’s room for success again, especially if the stars plus Josh Richardson are out.
Toronto capped their starters at just under 30 minutes last game, so there’s certainly some risk to expect more today in another game they don’t need. Unless we get a different indication from Nick Nurse, I’d mostly avoid the core Raptors with them locked into the No. 2 seed. I’d favor Norman Powell regardless of who plays. He may move back to the bench if the Raptors’ starters lead off the game per usual, but he’s likely to earn more minutes as those guys ramp down. Powell, Terence Davis and Chris Boucher are guys I’d take a stab at, though the latter could get very highly owned if we get confirmation that the questionable Serge Ibaka is out.
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Miami’s Motivations Are Questionable
Miami is now locked into the 4/5 playoff matchup with the Pacers or 76ers results what determines whom they play. As a result, it’s unclear how much you can expect of Jimmy Butler and the gang despite how hard the Heat usually go. I’d expect the starters to take the court, but a conservative minutes projection around 30 minutes doesn’t make these guys pop up for me much. The Heat starters will have some ownership on them, so I may mostly avoid Butler and Goran Dragic despite their potential in a normal situation. It may be more of a Derrick Jones Jr. and Tyler Herro kind of situation, though the former feels more interesting thanks to his cheap price.
Oklahoma City cannot drop out of the 4/5 matchup with Houston and into the 3/6 versus Denver on their own volition (only a Jazz win over San Antonio tomorrow can do that), so they may not have much reason to play today. Despite that, Chris Paul would be the first place here that I look despite his elevated price. Paul saw his minutes drop last game on a back-to-back but I think he may be a full go to get ready for a potential revenge-filled first round matchup against his former team. He played 33 minutes in the front half of his back-to-back, and that kind of run in a competitive game could be valuable at low ownership. The same logic applies for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but I have far less trust for him. It’s also important to watch out for Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel news with both questionable again. Darius Bazley and Mike Muscala are no longer value priced, but they can have potential again if the other bigs are out.
A Mostly Meaningless Late-Night Hammer
The Clippers and Nuggets are technically competing for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, but you can make an argument that the No. 3 seed might be better depending upon their respective fears of Luka Doncic relative to concern for the Jazz. The Clippers have rested guys but largely continued to play their stars full minutes, including just shy of 37 minutes last game for Kawhi Leonard. I don’t mind exposure towards him and Paul George as a result, though I still wouldn’t want more than the field. They play their final game on Friday, so this could be a final dress rehearsal for them. Landry Shamet and Patrick Beverley are out (with Montrezl Harrell still in quarantine), so Reggie Jackson and Lou Williams can be in play too. Jackson saw 15 minutes on the back half of the Clippers’ back-to-back but played 35 minutes as the starter before that. Jackson’s run will hopefully be safe, but Williams lurks as a guy who can do a lot more in a lot less time.
Denver’s situation last game was odd with the starters pulled in the third and then not brought back in after a potential blowout against the Lakers turned into one where the bench squad had the hot hand in the fourth and stayed in. Denver’s starters may have been more of a victim of circumstance than fully limited, but it’s unclear, barring additional news from Mike Malone today. I may give myself some Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in the hopes they see full run, but I’d still be less into Michael Porter Jr. at a salary that doesn’t reflect his drop in opportunity with Murray in the lineup, let alone the minutes risk. Porter has gone from 25% usage to under 20% with Murray in the lineup, and he only exceeded value with Murray versus Utah thanks to 45 overtime-aided minutes.
If we get a read on Denver’s starters’ minutes being limited, Mason Plumlee and P.J. Dozier would be the guys I like most off the bench. Plumlee averages 1.1 fantasy points per minute and Dozier has typically had between 23 and 30% usage off the bench in the bubble. Plumlee, Dozier, Monte Morris, Bol Bol and Keita Bates-Diop were the group who closed out that Laker game, and all of them can be in the mix today in lineups without the Denver starters.
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