It was largely a disappointing day for chalk plays in NBA DFS yesterday, but thankfully we’ve got a new batch of games in front of us today. The main tournaments across NBA DFS largely exclude the early Pelicans-Kings game with a 4 p.m. EST start, so it’ll be a change to what’s gone on lately. But on the plus side, it means that Bogdan Bogdanovic missing 15 shots and hitting one won’t make me rip my hair out. Either way, we’ have five other games so let’s get into it in today’s NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.
Can T.J. Warren Do the Thing Yet Again?
Warren has averaged 63 fantasy points and just shy of 40 real-life points in the Orlando NBA bubble. He’s also had around a 28% usage rate, but the margins got even more narrow for him with Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo in the lineup last game, as it took 13-for-17 shooting to get there. Look at this shot chart of Warren in the bubble so far:
TJ Warren in restart: pic.twitter.com/y7hukElaFc
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) August 6, 2020
If Brogdon is out today after currently being ruled questionable, I’d feel better about Warren. But if people chase his rising price with Brogdon and Oladipo in the lineup, I think there’s some cause for concern he doesn’t have the ceiling you need if he regresses to something short of an on-fire NBA Jam player. Brogdon and Oladipo look fine but the chalky ownership on the latter would give me some concern. It’s possible all these guys pile it on given Phoenix’s 108.7 defensive rating. But my concern is that while all of these guys look good on paper, they may not have the upside you really need for big tournaments due to how many mouths there are to feed. And that includes Myles Turner as well.
I’m more into the shockingly chalky Deandre Ayton on the other side. Half the field is projected to be on him, but his rebound and usage rates have been steady, and there won’t even be Aron Baynes available to theoretically siphon off some minutes. Devin Booker and Ricky Rubio look solid but unspectacular for Phoenix. Booker is always a compelling tournament play, and he just hung 54 fantasy points on the Clippers. His usage has been over 34% every game thus far. He’s something of a pivot to Ayton, but I don’t mind having both as a way of differentiating from the rest of the high Ayton ownership. I also don’t hate Cameron Johnson with his minutes as high as 40 per game in the bubble. He’s not a play to trust, but at under 5% ownership it makes sense to try to get some exposure.
Miami Will Be Down a Guy or Two
Jimmy Butler has already been ruled out while Goran Dragic is currently questionable. This is a key bit of news we’ll know before lock. If Dragic is in, I’d play him a lot with team-leading usage and assist rate sans Butler. If Dragic is out, I’d think Kendrick Nunn’s minutes get more secure, and there’s even more opportunity for the remaining Heat players. Andre Iguodala is cheap and saw 31 minutes last game. Kelly Olynyk will be highly owned, but he’s had solid usage and a 24% assist rate in the bubble thus far. It’s a terrifying prospect to have a chalk Olynyk, but the opportunity is there for him.
Tyler Herro looks less safe than Iguodala, but he seems like he should be in the mix as value. Even Jae Crowder looks decent and has an opportunity to do more with Milwaukee likely content to allow him to chuck up some 3’s rather than Olynyk, Herro or the sniper Duncan Robinson. And Bam Adebayo is expensive, but he does see a bump to a 29% assist rate with Butler off the floor. Overall, I’d feel most comfortable with Dragic if he’s in and don’t mind Olynyk and Iguodala. I’d feel better with chalk Olynyk and Iguodala if Dragic is out.
Milwaukee’s side would mostly be a stay-away for me for after the switcheroo they pulled last game with Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo pulled in the second half. No one topped 25 minutes in their shocking loss to Brooklyn, and I don’t trust that any of these guys can exceed their projections in a meaningful way. George Hill is the closest to playable to me as value.
Are People Sleeping on Jusuf Nurkic?
One guy leaped off the page to me in our ownership today and that man is Portland’s Jusuf Nurkic. He’s had over 50 fantasy points in the bubble after his return from a catastrophic leg injury, and he contributes with usage, rebounds and defensive peripherals. Despite that, he projects for under 5% ownership. People have seemed willing to chase T.J. Warren’s scoring explosion, and I think that should be true for Nurkic in a spot where his size is needed against Denver. In lineups without Nurkic, I imagine I’ll get some of low-owned Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum against a Denver team whose defensive reputation is greater than their performance in the bubble. They’ve allowed 121 points per game as a team thus far.
Part of the reason for that defensive downturn may be Michael Porter Jr.‘s inclusion in the lineup, but he’s still a massive fantasy contributor. Once again, I’ll feel more comfortable with his rising price and ownership if Jamal Murray remains out alongside Will Barton and Gary Harris. If Murray is in, I’d be willing to move away. But I love Porter and have rode with him heavily since he bombed as chalk in Denver’s first game. He’s played 36 and 44 minutes since that dud, and he’s crashed the boards like a mad man with 15 and 12 rebounds in those games. His upside is too great to fade if Denver’s roster stays depleted.
I’ll also never have an issue with playing Nikola Jokic, a man with 49 and 66.5 fantasy points in his last two games. The back-to-back feels a little risky for him with Denver needing to keep him upright with their other injuries. But it’s a solid spot for him going head-to-head with Nurkic. I also wouldn’t totally ignore Jerami Grant. He’s had 35 and 34 minutes in his last two games and spiked a 30.5 fantasy points upside yesterday. His ownership will be higher than it should be after that game, but Grant’s minutes have been there even with Paul Millsap in the mix. Monte Morris also looks playable if Murray misses again, but I don’t expect a ton of upside more than the 30 fantasy points he’s had in his last two games.
Doncic and Porzingis Try to Upset the Clippers
After the Suns upset Kawhi Leonard and company in their last game, the Mavericks will try to do the same in a game where they’re a four point underdog. It’s hard to love Luka Doncic knowing what of the Clippers’ defense. But it’s Doncic, and Devin Booker was able to find his shot against the Clippers’ vaunted wing defense. It’s not crazy that Doncic could do the same at a far riskier price point. Either way, the field’s expected sub-20% ownership feels in the right range to me. I might be more inclined to go to Kristaps Porzingis with his 32% usage rate in the bubble. The Clippers’ bigs are not going to be able to handle him, and his price unequivocally allows some upside. I wouldn’t chase Dorian Finney-Smith’s 41 overtime aided minutes and double-double last time out versus Sacramento. That said, I wouldn’t mind going back to Trey Burke as value after he had 24 overtime-boosted minutes last game with Seth Curry sidelined. He has more ability to be productive in short bursts, especially against a Clippers’ second unit with less defense.
Despite not much to play for, Leonard and Paul George have seen their minutes still at healthy levels, with Leonard topping 37 last game. They’ll see a bit less usage with Lou Williams back in the lineup after satiating his chicken wing cravings, and while I don’t mind them, they seem appropriately owned between 20 and 25% projected ownership. I don’t see a reason to get above the field on either of the Clippers’ big two.
I might be more inclined to take that discount on Williams after he returned to 21 minutes last game. He may be slightly hampered without Montrezl Harrell in the pick-and-roll, but he can still find his shot against Burke in that second unit. Ivica Zubac also looks like a decent, cheapish play, and he’s been steadily around 24-25 minutes after getting his conditioning up. He’s not a perfect matchup for Porzingis, so I wouldn’t go crazy and maybe will get a little JaMychal Green as a value pivot.
The Nothing-To-Play-For Lakers on a Back-to-Back
Anthony Davis and LeBron James are not players I’d go to again after avoiding their duds yesterday. Both saw around 30 minutes in a game that got away from them versus Oklahoma City, and it’s hard to imagine much more today. I’d once again consider Dion Waiters as value, who can actually put up numbers versus Houston after he put up 23.5 fantasy points yesterday. He appeals to me a lot more as a play than Danny Green, a player currently projected for chalk ownership due to his severely lowered price.
Russell Westbrook seems like a better play than James Harden relative to price, though Westbrook is questionable with a quad issue. Both guys had down days against Portland last time out, but they’re capable of filling it up against a Lakers team that, again, has nothing to play for. Westbrook’s chalky status may push me elsewhere, particularly if we don’t know if he’ll play before lock. If we do know Westbrook is out, I’d load up on Harden for all the obvious reasons. The rest of the Rockets, meh. Maybe they look better if Westbrook sits, but I don’t see a single one of their other guys as playable at their current prices.
