NBA DFS Switch And Hedge: Joel Embiid Gets The Run Of The House Against The Depleted Magic

It was a nice day for the Switch and Hedge yesterday, and I hope we’ve perhaps started to wrap our heads around the NBA DFS components of the bubble. Injury announcements yesterday mostly came with ample time, some guys playing over their heads leveled out a bit, and it was another quality day of basketball. I’ll do what I can to help you guys close the week out strongly in another day full of injuries and their various ramifications, including big changes in the Orlando-Philadelphia game. Let’s dig into everything relevant to today’s main slates in the NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!


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No Simmons Means Joel Embiid Szn?

Ben Simmons will be out for an undetermined period after a subluxation of his kneecap knocked him out of their last game against the Wizards, much to my lineups’ dismay. But that means Joel Embiid will be fully unleashed against a depleted Orlando lineup. Embiid sees a jump to a 38% usage rate and just under a 24% assist rate in court time without Simmons. Embiid is at a premium price, but his ownership currently projected at under 10% seems like a number worth getting substantially more than.

Tobias Harris will likely see a bit more usage after his bubble rates have stabilized somewhat in his last few games. I’m more inclined for the price of Josh Richardson, but the elevated salary of Harris would give him some contrarian appeal. Shake Milton also is capable of blowing up the night, especially if Embiid doesn’t spike a meaningful upside. I’d take him over Al Horford, who’ll likely see some more assist upside and may even see a start to replace Simmons at his new power forward position. That fifth starter will be a key to watch out for. I’d guess that Furkan Korkmaz starts with an outside chance of Matisse Thybulle instead. Either way, I’d watch out for Alec Burks to get some unbridled second unit usage.

Orlando will be without Aaron Gordon and the previously injured Jonathan Isaac, two absences that will not help their defense. They will, however, open up minutes and, more importantly, opportunity for the remaining Magic. Nikola Vucevic comes close to a 30% usage rate without the two wings, and he also sees boosts in rebounds and assists. He’s a chalky play that should be a focus in cash and worth coming close to the field in GPPs. Evan Fournier is at a solid price, and he’ll see some additional usage as well. I don’t love him as a chalk play given some of his inability to contribute meaningfully in other categories, but I’ll definitely have a good swath of exposure. In situations where you think he may fail, it’s worth getting Terrence Ross into a lineup as a guy who usually produces when Fournier doesn’t. Ross came in for Gordon when he was hurt last game.

You could talk me into any of the remaining Magic players in varying levels of interest. James Ennis should gain a little from the lack of Gordon and Isaac, but he doesn’t have much of a ceiling. The time share with D.J. Augustin and Markelle Fultz has not been great for either’s value, but either could earn additional minutes with quality play. And I have to mention both Wesley Iwundu and Gary Clark at minimum prices. Neither gets any appreciable usage or does a lot on the court, but if they’re productive and add value offensively or defensively, respectively, they could get enough run to be vaguely useful.

Step Up to the Washington-New Orleans Track Meet

Two of the fastest-paced teams face off in a game with a slate-high 234.5 combined total. The Pelicans are coming off yet another loss, and they’ll need to make something happen today versus the depleted Washington squad. Despite the cake matchup, it’s hard to trust these high prices for New Orleans. I don’t think I can get to Jrue Holiday and Zion Williamson, whose rising salaries don’t make a ton of sense with their performances in the bubble thus far. Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball look like the better plays at their salaries, and I wouldn’t mind some tournament exposure to Derrick Favors. The ownership seems mostly correct for all of these guys, though, so maybe there’s more value in going to a cheap J.J. Redick or Josh Hart in the hopes they spike an upside and earn a few extra minutes.

I still really like Troy Brown with his cross-category contributions. His assist rate has remained above 20% in Orlando, and he has just enough usage to provide some value there. At his price, I’ll be with the field again in the hopes he can come closer to his 50-point upside again. Ish Smith also has seen something of a jump in the bubble with a usage rate just shy of 26%, up from his usual 18.8%. He can have upside in this kind of matchup with pace and space. Shabazz Napier is a much lower-owned tournament pivot to both guys, but it won’t take much to get above the field there. I see less reason to go to Rui Hachimura, and Thomas Bryant is now expensive enough that his ownership will come down. He averages 50.1 fantasy points in his last three games, but his season-long projections indicate he may be overperforming. I’d still want some exposure, especially since he doesn’t project as chalk.

Brandon Clarke Chalk Day is Back, In Pog Form

Brandon Clarke crushed a lot of people last time out, as he stood in the corner and mostly did nothing alongside the starters. His usage and rebound rates take a big drop alongside Jonas Valanciunas and Ja Morant, and I’ll be under the field on the 30% ownership projected for him today. I’d be more inclined too go to the aforementioned Valanciunas, who’s now priced down and will be in solid position against Steven Adams. You can play Morant, Dillon Brooks or even Kyle Anderson (at low amounts), but Valanciunas is the guy I think could be a concern if you fade him entirely in tournaments today.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been middling to disappointing in two straight games, and yet he projects for half the field to be on him today despite a rising price. I don’t want to be there, and I’m pretty sure I’ll end up significantly under that. There seem to be other ways to go, though Chris Paul also seems pretty overpriced and over-owned as a leverage play. I also am not craving the Danilo Gallinari chalk, though he remains as fine as ever for cash. Steven Adams might appeal to me the most given his low ownership projected and reliability, though he also seems expensive due to the pace-up versus Memphis. The Thunder tend to play slow even in these spots – they’ve shot a league-high 12.8 seconds into the shot clock in the bubble thus far – and I don’t think they should be as highly owned as they are.

What to Do With Brooklyn

Sacramento-Brooklyn is a game chock full of guys who’ve thrown me off so far in the bubble. Caris LeVert will be a top-owned play who’s had a 32% usage rate thus far in Orlando. He looks good with his price down, but more than half the field is projected to be on him. That alone could give enough logic to get under the field’s ownership even if he is a rock solid play. Jarrett Allen is questionable but looks like the same value he’s been lately if he’s in. Both guys were limited by a Boston blowout last game, and it seems less likely that Sacramento sticks it to him like that. If he’s out, I’d guess we see another Rodions Kurucs start at center, but I’d watch for Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot to steal minutes in a small-ball lineup. Joe Harris is also questionable but looks fine if he’s in, albeit less of a priority than Allen or LeVert.

Bogdan Bogdanovic absolutely killed me with 1-for-15 shooting versus Dallas. He then recovered exceedingly well with 49.5 fantasy points in 37 minutes on 13-for-20 shooting in a game not on the main slate yesterday versus. Which Bogdanovic will you get today? I’ll be above the field’s 10% projected ownership waiting to find out, but he is a massively frustrating human to back financially. De’Aaron Fox is likely the safer play with more reliable upside, and he looks to be at a great price that’ll leave him with a ton of ownership. He too will be unbelievably owned, so keep that in mind to mix in some lower-owned plays in lineups with Fox. That said, I’d gladly take Fox as chalk over Gilgeous-Alexander.

Richaun Holmes looks to be at a good price after he saw 34 minutes yesterday. I’d get there less if Allen is out for the Nets because that could very easily leads to some Nemanja Bjelica center minutes in a smaller group. I’d take some stabs at Bjelica even if that’s not the case, and unfortunately, I don’t mind Harrison Barnes at his price either. It may be a day to also consider a Buddy Hield bounce back after he played just 11 minutes yesterday thanks to Bogdanovic’s hot hand. Really any of these guys can spike an upside thanks to how bad the Nets defense has been.

Great Real Life, Poor NBA DFS Game

The last game to talk about on the slate is Boston versus Toronto. I don’t see myself getting much of anyone here. Jayson Tatum looks chalky thanks to his price drop, but he’ll see some brutal defense and less usage with Kemba Walker back in the mix. I’d think a discount price Walker would be more appealing, but the ownership has him at a third of Tatum’s projected ownership.

Pascal Siakam looks affordable but appropriately owned at around 20% of the field. Marc Gasol is the only other affordable guy here, and he played 25 minutes last game as starter. He could be a decent value. Otherwise, you can pay premium prices for Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry in the hopes they spike a major upside, but both feel risky. VanVleet has averaged 46 fantasy points in the bubble, but the longer-term sample size indicates he’s likely playing a good amount over his head.


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Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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