NBA DFS Fades & Booms: Naz Reid Continues to Bring Value

Monday features a 10-game NBA slate flooded with elite pay-up options. Choosing right the stud to pay up for will prove crucial when building lineups. This article will break everything down and identify a few of the slate’s best plays, including Donovan Mitchell, and one player to fade.

With so many games on the docket, DFS players must follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of starting lineups tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for Monday’s action.

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NBA DFS Play: LeBron James: $10,300 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel

41.6% DraftKings Boom/30.7% FanDuel Boom

Deciding which stud to play on this slate is difficult. Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and LeBron James have the top three bust percentages on FanDuel and have three of the top five on DraftKings. Even though all of these studs look great, DFS players should target LeBron because he is substantially cheaper than Doncic and Jokic on both sites. He may not have as high of a ceiling as the other two, but he did have nearly a triple-double in his last game. He recorded a season-high 47 points with 10 rebounds and nine assists, good for a season-high 76 DraftKings points.

James has once again taken his game to a new level with the absence of Anthony Davis, who will miss his eighth-straight game tonight. In the nine games that Davis has missed this season, James is averaging 33.9 points and 55.9 DraftKings points per game while shooting 55.1% from the field. His usage rate ticks up to 35.5% as well. The Lakers will play the Hornets tonight, which presents LA with a great chance to secure back-to-back wins. The Hornets rank 26th in defensive rating this season, and the total for this game is the highest on the slate at 242.5 points.

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NBA DFS Play: Donovan Mitchell: $9,000 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel

25.8% DraftKings Boom/25.0% FanDuel Boom

Cleveland finally got back in the win column after a road trip to Chicago. The Cavaliers will now host the Bulls tonight in an immediate rematch. Darius Garland and Evan Mobley both missed the previous game due to injury — Garland is now doubtful and Mobley questionable. Although Donovan Mitchell didn’t hit his ceiling, as he usually does without Garland, he could easily do so tonight. He ranks sixth in boom percentage on FanDuel and ninth in DraftKings. Mitchell is cheaper at FanDuel and looks like the better play there.

Donovan Mitchell is already having a career year, but the star guard plays even better when Garland sits. Mitchell is averaging a career-high 28 points per game. In the six games that Garland missed this season, Mitchell averaged 29.5 points, 6.8 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game. Mitchell is averaging over 50 DraftKings points per game without Garland this season as well, and his usage rate even increases to 32.4%. Stokastic’s projections have Mitchell projected to play 36 minutes, making him a strong value at a mid-range price.

NBA DFS Play: Kevon Looney: $4,600 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel

42.5% DraftKings Boom/28.9% FanDuel Boom

Despite all of the elite studs on this large slate, Warriors center Kevon Looney has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the fourth highest on FanDuel. The Warriors will be without Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga and backup center James Wiseman tonight. That will secure the minutes for Looney, who is projected to play 27. Stokastic’s projections list him as the best value on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Looney has played 26 minutes in back-to-back games while averaging 24.4 DraftKings points per game. He’ll play in what should be a high-scoring game — the total sits all the way up at 237, which is the second highest on the slate.

The Hawks love playing a center alongside their two elite guards in Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. Clint Capela will sit out tonight, which leaves Onyeka Okongwu to fill the void. Okongwu played 43 minutes in Atlanta’s last game. Having Okongwu playing so many minutes will force the Warriors to play more of Looney, thus increasing his value. The Hawks rank 22nd in rebounding percentage and 25th in points allowed in the paint with 53.1 per game. There is an outside shot of a Looney double-double tonight. As a result, he is projected to be the highest-owned player on both sites.

NBA DFS Fade: Zion Williamson: $9,700 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel

46.0% DraftKings Bust/54.6% FanDuel Bust

Zion Williamson enters the fade conversation after back-to-back duds. Williamson averaged 28 points per game but only 35.9 DraftKings points per game over his last two starts. Priced at $10,000 on FanDuel and just below that on DraftKings, Williamson is one of the best fades of the night. His bust percentage on both sites is the highest among the pay-up options as the Pelicans travel on the road to take on the Philadelphia 76ers. With several players priced below him projected for a higher fantasy score, Williamson doesn’t have much value.

The Pelicans just beat the 76ers at home by 11 points last week. Williamson finished with 36 points, but scoring is all he has done recently. Capturing rebounds and gaining peripherals is not his strong suit, which is what makes him a fade at this price on both sites. The 76ers are tied for the second-best defensive rating and play at the fifth-slowest pace. They are allowing only 108.2 points per game, the second fewest in the league. With the Pelicans projected for only 112.5 points, Williamson, who does nothing but score, isn’t worth the price tag.

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