NBA DFS Picks Today: Luka Doncic to Boom, Lauri Markkanen to Bust

Saturday features a relatively small four-game NBA slate. Notably, three of those four games have a total set to more than 230 points. With a salary that’s $1,000 higher than the next most-expensive player on FanDuel — and $2,000 more expensive on DraftKings — Luka Doncic will determine how this NBA DFS slate plays out.

There isn’t much news yet, but DFS players must follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for Saturday’s action.

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Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Play: Luka Doncic: $12,700 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel

44.9% DraftKings Boom/39.7% FanDuel Boom

Don’t be gun shy about taking an expensive option on this small four-game slate after Giannis Antetokounmpo scored an egregiously low 12 DraftKings points last night. Old reliable Luka Doncic is here to save the day. He owns the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel by far. On small slates, raw points matter so much, and no one comes close to Doncic in Stokastic’s projections. He should score at least 10 fantasy points more than the next-best player and is easily the best pay-up option on the slate.

The only downside to Doncic is that his game may not see as much scoring as the others. It owns a total of 225, which is the only one under 230 points tonight. However, that shouldn’t be much of an issue, as the Mavericks have played at the second-slowest pace all season and Doncic has still averaged a career-high 34 points per game with a 38.3% usage rate. As more value opens up throughout the day, expect Doncic’s ownership to rise near 30% or higher. He is obviously expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but there is no one else who can reach his ceiling tonight.

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NBA DFS Play: Nikola Vucevic: $7,500 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel

37.1% DraftKings Boom/16.6% FanDuel Boom

Looking at the mid-range options, Bulls center Nikola Vucevic is poised for another great game. He posted the fifth triple-double of his career last night with 19 points, 18 rebounds, and 10 assists against the Joel Embiid-less 76ers. Vucevic is averaging a double-double for the sixth-straight season and has averaged 17.5 points and 13.5 rebounds per game while shooting 54.7% from the field and 40.1% from behind the arc over his last six games. Prioritize Vucevic on DraftKings where he has the slate’s second-highest boom percentage.

What really sets Vucevic apart from the rest of his pricing tier is this matchup against a very weak Jazz frontcourt. The Jazz have allowed a league-high 55.8 points per game in the paint this season. This game features a 237-point total with the Bulls listed as slight home underdogs. NBA DFS players should get exposure to several of Chicago’s players because the Jazz rank a lowly 27th in defensive rating (114.9). At $7,500, Vucevic currently has the highest value in Stokastic’s projections, so target him in this cupcake matchup.

NBA DFS Fade: Lauri Markkanen: $9,300 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel

47.0% DraftKings Bust/55.0% FanDuel Bust

Jazz big man Lauri Markkanen will play opposite Nikola Vucevic tonight. He is coming off a career-high 49 points against the Rockets. However, he draws a very different matchup tonight against a team that can actually play defense. Markkanen owns the highest bust percentage among the pay-up options on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. It’s tough to pick Markkanen with a price tag of $9,000 or higher at both sites.

Markkanen is averaging a career-high 24.5 points per game while shooting 53% from the field in his first season with the Jazz. He dominated in his first game against the Bulls this season, but both teams are now trending in different directions. The Bulls have slowly worked their way up the Eastern Conference standings, but in contrast, the Jazz have nearly fallen out of a Western Conference play-in spot. Markkanen has had a great season, but this isn’t the slate to get exposure to him with other great pay-up options available.

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