NBA DFS Picks Today: Take the Value, Beware of This Spend Up

Thursday’s NBA DFS slate is only four games but already has a lot of value spots on the board. Last night’s slate began with very few low-dollar value plays on the board. That changed later in the evening when news broke that Domantas Sabonis was not playing, but it was too late for most DFS players to adjust. Many lineups prepared for the news assumed that Trey Lyles would start, or at least get enough run to outscore Sabonis’ eventual replacement, min-priced Richaun Holmes.

Tonight there are known value plays going into the evening. As of 2:00 p.m. ET three spots standout in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool, with more surely to open up as the NBA news cycle continues.

Bet $10, win $200 on your bet if ANY NBA TEAM hits a three!

The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Play: Naz Reid $4,600 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel

61.98% DraftKings Boom/47.24% FanDuel Boom

If you’ve been playing NBA DFS this season with any frequency you won’t be surprised to see that Naz Reid ranks first in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust tool. Reid has been a fantasy points machine whenever Rudy Gobert is out, which was the case last night, and will be again for the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Toronto Raptors tonight.

The Boom/Bust tool projects Reid to be optimal 68.2% of the time on DraftKings and 48.7% on FanDuel. Those compare to 38.2% and 61.4% ownership, respectively. DFS players are noticing Reid’s value, but still not giving it enough credit at the moment. His ownership is high on both sites, but is still inefficient given Reid’s high ceiling and floor.

Reid’s appeal is not only his strong points per dollar and boom score, but also the position flexibility he offers on DraftKings. Rostering Reid at PF leaves room to play a value play at C like Precious Achiuwa or to spend up for Joel Embiid or a mid-priced DeAndre Ayton; who are all projecting well in Stokastic’s tools.

Reid is only available at C on FanDuel. However, the player pool on FanDuel has far less value in the center slot making the opportunity cost to rostering Reid far lower. That is being reflected in his higher ownership on the site compared to DraftKings. Nevertheless, his huge ceiling is still creating a sky high 32.0 leverage score.

NBA DFS Play: Saben Lee $3,200 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel

50.43% DraftKings Boom/32.31% FanDuel Boom

Chris Paul is officially out again leaving a huge minutes void on the Suns roster. Duane Washington Jr. has stepped up from his bench role to replace Paul in the starting lineup. The boost in minutes and usage for Washington with Paul and Devin Booker sidelined has been enormous. His strong fantasy output has caused his price to increase on both sites.

Enter Saben Lee, who played 28 minutes last night off the bench. There’s nothing special about Lee, but his salary is too low for an NBA player slotted to get that much playing time. Lee is optimal in 65% of DraftKings lineup in Stokastic’s model and 61.4% on FanDuel. His ownerships are nearly matching the optimal rates. Stokastic currently have Lee projected at 61.6% ownership and 66.4%, respectively.

Given Lee’s price and optimal rates, it is fine to eat those ownerships. As long as they don’t create enormous negative leverage, he is worth getting in your lineups and finding points of differentiation elsewhere.

Latest NBA DFS Content

NBA DFS Play: Precious Achiuwa $3,700 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel

30.29% DraftKings Boom/10.72% FanDuel Boom

Precious Achiuwa is popping out in the Boom/Bust tool on DraftKings. His points-per-dollar projection and ceiling are not nearly as strong on FanDuel. But if you’re playing on DraftKings you will want to consider the Toronto Raptors’ center.

Achiuwa is optimal in 30.5% of lineups on DraftKings compared to a 31.5% ownership. The slightly negative leverage score in Stokastic’s tool is mitigated by the prize savings. The additional salary leftover from Achiuwa can be used to differentiate with other highly projected plays.

Precious is playing opposite top play Naz Reid which does create a very small negative correlation. Don’t let that be a dealbreaker if you are hand building lineups. However, it’s always worth being on top of the small nuances and edges in DFS, especially if you are building without Stokastic’s Lineup Generator or an optimizer that can account for them.

Want to try our new lineup generator for 50% off?

Use the coupon code SCORE to get 50% off the first week or month for any package, including Platinum, NBA, and NBA Lineup Generator!

The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

NBA DFS Fade: Damian Lillard $10,000 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel

22.1% DraftKings Boom/13.35% FanDuel Boom

The Portland Trail Blazers are at full strength and Damian Lillard is putting up fantasy points, but that isn’t helping this team in the standings. They face the Philadelphia 76ers as home underdogs against the top Eastern Conference contenders. It should be an uphill battle for Portland.

Damian Lillard’s price is rising. He was $9,500 on DraftKings last time the Portland Trail Blazers played but has now reached five figures. Lillard’s strong raw projection of 48.25 on DraftKings and 45.66 on FanDuel are solid, but not relative to his chances of “booming.” Dame might be having a career year since his injury plagued campaign a year ago, but the field is well aware.

There are other options higher on the board on both sites. Having some exposure to Lillard is fine, but his lack of ceiling potential at that price are a lot to eat at efficient ownership of 20.1% on DraftKings and 15.7%. Things change fast in NBA DFS, but at the moment the Boom/Bust tool has better plays.

The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!