NBA DFS Switch And Hedge: The Finale

It’s the end of the regular season and our final NBA DFS slate before the playoffs, always a tricky time to navigate for the reasons we’ve outlined all week long. None of the games today matter at all, we already know some stars will sit while others remain questionable, it’s likely to be even more of a dumpster fire today than it was yesterday.

So yes, in a lot of ways it’s a fitting way for it all to go down in my last NBA DFS Switch and Hedge column here and my last day at Awesemo.com. I started with Awesemo pretty much during the NBA’s tanking season and now I get to leave during their tanking season. It’s about as poetic as it can be for me while having to recommend 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th men to play on today’s slate. Make sure to join me and Josh Engleman for my last NBA Live Before Lock (as well as our Live After Lock special where many of our Awesemo coworkers will come to hang out and share a final drink)! Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to see my content in the future! And support the surprise writer who takes over this column and the Slant and Go next and hopefully carries you to daily fantasy sports glory even more than I’ve tried to over the last few years.

And now let’s celebrate with one last spin through the embers of an NBA season in today’s NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!


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The Final NBA DFS Switch And Hedge

Miami’s Starters Hit The Pine

Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, and Bam Adebayo were ruled out in advance for today’s game against Indiana, the team they’ll face in round one of the playoffs. That means there should be open-ended opportunity for Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn. Herro will be a top-owned play today thanks to his recent hot run where he’s topped 45.5 FP in two out of three games. He should get a good amount of run with some risk that Erik Spoelstra pulls him earlier than expected due to his important role for them in the playoffs. I’d think that he and Nunn see more minutes than they may have normally since backup guard Gabe Vincent will also be out.

Herro, Derrick Jones, Solomon Hill, and Meyers Leonard started the second half of last game after they pulled Butler but played Goran Dragic one more shift. Dragic yielded to the aforementioned Vincent in that game so it’s unclear whom they’d go to now. It seems likely that Hill gets the most run as a result of no Dragic and Vincent but he’s not a terribly productive per-minute guy. I’ll have some exposure for Hill, especially if Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala get confirmed out after being marked questionable. I‘d also not sleep on Chris Silva as a back-up big who can get a lot of additional run. He, Leonard and Kyle Alexander are the main bigs besides the aged Udonis Haslem with KZ Okpala also out today. I’ll get some of Leonard and Silva because of Adebayo’s vacated minutes as well as Kelly Olynyk not likely to play a ton.

On the other side, the Pacers will be without TJ Warren, Myles Turner, Victor Oladipo and the already out Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb today. Malcolm Brogdon is not on the injury report but should see limited run after he was questionable with his neck issues. I’d be willing to go back to TJ McConnell and Aaron Holiday but Edmond Sumner is the value guy to watch. He had a 24% usage rate last game versus Houston as he fought his way into 24 minutes. This isn’t as good of a matchup but his value price is one with a lot of upside. I’d also watch the questionable Goga Bitadze’s status. If he’s in, he’s an interesting play. If he’s out, TJ Leaf has to play a lot of minutes at a minimum price as a 0.97 fantasy point per minute player this year.

Toronto’s Starters Get To Relax

Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Kyle Lowry will sit while Serge Ibaka and OG Anunoby both seem unlikely to play. That should open a lot of opportunity for the remaining Raptors in their game versus Denver. Norman Powell has shown 44.5 fantasy point upside in the bubble and likely will get the first crack at usage in the starting group. I have no issue at his price. Terence Davis would be a priority with a boost to 29% usage as well as more assists and rebounds without the key Raps. Chris Boucher should secure a substantial amount of minutes even with whatever load Rondae Hollis-Jefferson takes. Stanley Johnson should get some second unit run. I don’t trust a priced up Matt Thomas but he’s been a 45% shooter from deep this year who can get there with scoring. The Raptors should be a core team to build around today.

Denver will not sit anyone but last game they pulled their guys after the third quarter. It seems likely the starters get a half before yielding to the bench, something that makes those guys mostly unplayable at their current prices. Jerami Grant soaked up a lot of the bench usage last game and there’s no reason to expect otherwise today. That said, his price is not great so I don’t view him as a core piece today. I’d like to take some stabs at PJ Dozier in the hopes he plays basically the whole second half and I can’t hate on people’s infatuation with Bol Bol. But with all of these guys in and the starters getting even 20ish minutes, this is not as fertile of a ground as Toronto’s situation or something like New Orleans yesterday.


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We Have At Least One Obvious Injury Situation

Philadelphia-Houston is the final game on the slate and we know what James Harden will bring the table, even if his minutes end up limited. Harden has a 43% usage rate and 45% assist rate with Russell Westbrook off the floor, a situation Harden will have today and to open the playoffs. Harden put up 87.75 fantasy points in 35 minutes versus Indiana last game and is capable of a solid outcome even if he plays just 28 minutes today. I may not lock him in as usual thanks to his 86% projected ownership but I’ll have a lot. I have less interest in the rest of the Rockets, especially Robert Covington with fairly shocking projected ownership. Chris Clemons is a guy I may target in a few lineups sans Harden in case his minutes get weird but Harden seems like the guy to trust here.

The Sixers’ side has a questionable Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons out but the rest of the guys expected to be available. Last game they played through the third quarter before sitting but I don’t think you can necessarily rely on that today. Even if you give them mid-20s minutes, none of these guys really jump out. I may get some Tobias Harris or Al Horford just to fill out a roster but they’re not great plays by any stretch. I’d look more towards Alec Burks, who missed last game but is not on the injury report, or Raul Neto, who has over 30.25 FP in his last two games with over 15 shot attempts in both. He can certainly be an initiator of offense against a small Houston squad.

It also seems like we could see a return of Kyle O’Quinn after he sat in the back half of a back-to-back last time. Norvel Pelle had 20 minutes backing up Embiid last game and is in play as well but is far less productive than KOQ.

No Chris Paul For OKC

Chris Paul and Luguentz Dort will sit for Oklahoma City with Dennis Schroder still out as well. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander takes massive jumps in usage and assists to 33% and 37.7% respectively without the other two lead guards so I think I’ll have some exposure today. Shai only played through the third quarter last game and could get a halftime hook. But they don’t have any quality lead ballhandlers behind these guys with Hamadou Diallo mostly taking point guard duties. I’ll be back with Diallo today after he’s burned me before but there isn’t a ton else to love unless you’re willing to pay up for Darius Bazley. Bazley has had bumps in usage and rebounding in the bubble and got up to 26 minutes last game with Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel available.

Kawhi Leonard played 33 minutes while Paul George played 36 minutes last game. I don’t expect quite as much run today but it does seem like the Clippers’ focus has been to keep their guys in shape. As a result, I don’t mind these guys with the hopes of a high 20s minutes projection. Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell also remain out alongside Landry Shamet and that can be good news for Lou Williams. Lou’s minutes have started to rise as he works himself back into shape and he played 25 last game. He’s had 38 and 32.25 fantasy points in his last two games with 33% usage so Lou has the ability to spike an upside at his price. Since the starters will be in for the Clippers, I don’t have much interest in their scrubs.


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Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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