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Anthony Edwards O/U 5.5 Assists
There’s a lot to monitor with the Timberwolves, both tonight and down the road. The trade of D’Angelo Russell takes away Minnesota’s No. 1 assist guy, and second-place Karl-Anthony Towns remains out. The Timberwolves also have a host of questionables tonight, including the usual Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson tags plus the additions of Mike Conley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to the report.
All of those ifs, along with the loss of the team’s leading assister, have pushed Edwards’ assist line nearly a full dime north of his season average. The expectation is that a lot of Russell’s playmaking is going to move over to Edwards since he is now the only high-end shot creator on the team, but it seems just as likely that it will simply lead to more shots for Edwards, rather than more assists. Eventually Conley is going to take on a heavy assist load, and if that begins tonight (which Stokastic is projecting to be the case), then lock in the under on Edwards.
Edwards is slated for 4.5 assists on NBA Bet Pro, even though he is projecting for 37 minutes. He has hit this over only 18 times in 58 games this year, and the new makeup of the Timberwolves is unlikely to shift assist numbers as strongly as the line is predicting. As it stands, Edwards’ under on 5.5 assists has a 69% win expectancy in NBA Bet Pro‘s projections.
Edit:Â Conley and Alexander-Walker are available tonight.
Best NBA Player Prop: Anthony Edwards UNDER 5.5 Assists
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Jalen Duren O/U 10.5 Rebounds
This upcoming stretch of games presents a statement opportunity for Duren. He is having a really strong rookie season, averaging 8.4 points and 8.7 rebounds in 24.9 minutes per game, and yet the Pistons traded away a decent rotation player in Saddiq Bey and got back James Wiseman from Golden State. One could optimistically say that Wiseman is a similar player to Duren in that he is a long, springy big, but the more accurate description of Wiseman is a far less reliable, infinitely more disappointing version of Duren.
That said, Wiseman was the No. 2 overall pick just a few drafts ago, and the Pistons moved a real piece in order to acquire him. That means he is probably going to get minutes at some point. He was only getting 12.5 a game for a (theoretically) contending Warriors team, but things are different with the bottom-feeding Pistons and Wiseman is reportedly going to start for Detroit.
So what does this mean for Duren? For one, he has proven he does not need to be in the starting lineup to produce. Duren’s numbers are better when he starts because he has more regularly been getting to 30-plus minutes, but he also put up double-doubles in mid-20s minutes earlier in the season when he was coming off the bench. Either way, Detroit trusts him more than most of its other big men, and Wiseman is not exactly a trustworthy alternative.
As for tonight, this is the perfect time to hop on Duren’s props since he will have that chip on his shoulder while also getting starter’s minutes since Wiseman is probably not going to be available yet for the Pistons. It seems like the type of game where Duren goes off to prove that he is the market correction of Wiseman’s bust status. NBA Bet Pro agrees, projecting Duren for 12.0 rebounds in just under 32 minutes against the equally weak Spurs.
Best NBA Player Prop: Jalen Duren OVER 10.5 Rebounds
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