NBA Player Props NHA: C.J. McCollum Trying to Regain Form (February 27)

It is a rougher day for NBA player props in No House Advantage‘s Vs. The House contest for Monday, Feb. 27. Only one prop is even getting a 60% win expectancy, and plenty others are dipping well into the low 50s. As such, NBA Bet Pro is going to be a vital tool to increasing ROI by finding the best value spots today on a limited slate.

Don’t forget, you can get a seven-day free trial of NBA Bet Pro and see how best to make some money. Now let’s dive into the top NBA player props for today’s contest.

NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas Under 11.5 Rebounds

This line seems a touch high given Valanciunas is averaging less than 10 rebounds per game and has fallen shy of this line in two-thirds of his games this season. And it is not as if there is even a hot streak to ride here; he has had 11 or fewer rebounds in four of the last five. Plus, the matchup is neutral at best, as the Magic are 13th in the NBA in rebound rate and a slight pace down for New Orleans.

Really nothing is suggesting Valanciunas’ over/under should be more than a board and a half higher than his season marks. The total for this game, while second highest on the short slate, is only 226.5 to 227.5 across the industry, so there is not projected to be an excess of shots going up. In fact, both Orlando and New Orleans rank in the bottom 10 in field goal attempts per game, and both are right in the middle in field goal percentage. In other words, these teams take a modest number of shots and make them at a pedestrian rate — neither good nor bad.

The last thing working against Valanciunas is Willy Hernangomez projecting to get decent run tonight. Hernangomez does not play all that often and is only averaging 12.8 minutes when he does, but he grabs 5.1 rebounds per game in that limited time. NBA Bet Pro is projecting him to push 20 minutes today, and that is giving him a projection of 7.5 rebounds. Meanwhile, Valanciunas is only going for 10.7 right now in the model, giving the under on 11.5 a slate-high 61% expected win rate.

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C.J. McCollum Under 21.5 Points

Again, this Magic-Pelicans game is pretty pace neutral with a low-ish projected total, so most lines for these players will have under leans. McCollum’s points under has the second-best win odds, going for 59%, which further indicates how tough this slate looks to be for NBA player props.

While Brandon Ingram has stepped up and put up solid numbers the last month-plus, McCollum has had a slightly rougher go of it. He is still hitting this over at a decent rate — eight overs in his last 17 games — but his efficiency has taken a dive. He finished last season strong with the Pelicans by averaging 24.3 on 49.3% shooting over 26 games. In 54 games this year, however, he is down to 43.4%.

With Ingram emerging as New Orleans’ No. 1, McCollum is taking fewer shots than he had been — only 16.1 per game over his last eight. Ingram is taking 21.9 per game over that stretch. NBA Bet Pro predicts similar distribution tonight, with Ingram projecting for just under 25 points and McCollum 19.8 against the Magic.

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Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.