NBA Player Props NHA: Chris Paul Has His Hands Full (February 16)

Today’s is the last NBA slate before the All-Star break, and there are only three games from which to choose player props. Fortunately, NBA Bet Pro‘s No House Advantage projections have identified some solid spots at the top of the value board, including one for Chris Paul as he leads the depth-starved Suns. Let’s take a look at the best props for No House Advantage‘s Vs. The House contest on Thursday, Feb. 16.

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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props

Chris Paul Under 9.5 Assists

Paul’s assist numbers have actually been pretty solid since Devin Booker came back despite Booker cutting into Paul’s ball-handling duties a bit. The two have played three games together since Booker’s return, and Paul has gone over 9.5 assists in two of them. However, this is not looking to be a good game environment for offensive statistics.

The total is between 222.5 and 223.5 across the industry, by far the lowest among the three games, and Phoenix’s team total is tied with the struggling Bulls for lowest on the slate. Only Booker, Paul, Deandre Ayton and Josh Okogie project for over 9 points, as the Suns have gutted the team’s depth and are still waiting on Kevin Durant. In the meantime, they are going to be a pretty unexciting team offensively, barring occasional bursts by Booker and Paul.

NBA Bet Pro is not projecting this to be one of those nights as Phoenix takes on the Clippers. Paul is projecting for just 8.8 assists, and since he is just 1-for-3 on this over since the trade deadline, it is going to be safer taking under on Paul assist bets until Durant suits up. For tonight, he has a 61% chance of staying under, according to NBA Bet Pro.

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Kyle Kuzma Under 22.5 Points

It is somewhat rare for Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal to all be healthy and in the Wizards lineup on the same night. That is the case today, and it is driving each of their projections down slightly, with all three projecting for more than 20 points but less than 23.

Kuzma is sacrificing the most here, as his projection of 20.4 points tonight is more than a full point below his season average. He has been the healthiest of the three, playing 52 games this season (Porzingis 49, Beal 35), but he has still only hit this over in 23 of those games (44.2%). And though he hit this over last game with both guys playing, NBA Bet Pro is playing the regression game here.

That regression could depend significantly on Rudy Gobert (questionable) playing for Minnesota. The Timberwolves are a dramatically better defensive team with Gobert in the lineup, and his presence will allow Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels — who have come on defensively — to defend more freely on the perimeter. That is where Kuzma has been living, taking at least 10 3’s in seven of his last 11 games. If Minnesota can keep his 3-point shot from falling, it is unlikely Kuzma will be able to get to 23 when Beal and Porzingis are both healthy. As such, NBA Bet Pro is giving the under a 61% expected win rate.

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Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.