NBA Player Props NHA: Is This Line Too High for Nikola Jokic? (February 15)

It is back to a full-sized NBA slate today, and superstars are dominating the top of NBA Bet Pro‘s No House Advantage projections. A handful of spots are providing good value for NBA player props, including a play on potential three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Let’s take a look at the best props for No House Advantage‘s Vs. The House contest.

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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props

Nikola Jokic Under 12.5 Rebounds

Fading Jokic is more often than not a fool’s errand, but alas, 12.5 is a huge number. Jokic is averaging more than a full rebound below that for the year (11.4), and yet that is still the second-best season mark of his career. While he’s a walking triple-double, let alone double-double, Jokic has only grabbed 13 or more rebounds in 16 of 50 games this season (32%). Instead, Jokic’s brilliance comes from his consistency — he has fallen between 10 and 13 rebounds in 22 of his 50 games this year — rather than his boom performances.

Now, the Mavericks have been one of the worst rebounding teams this year (29th in rebound rate), but they are also 29th in pace for the season. They have jumped slightly to 21st since trading for Kyrie Irving, adding a full possession per 100; however, this is still a sizable pace down for Jokic and the Nuggets. The total is a middling 233.0 to 233.5 at most books, and Jokic may also be getting Aaron Gordon back in the lineup. That will be great for his assist numbers but likely a detriment to his rebounding production.

All told, NBA Bet Pro projects Jokic for 11.2 rebounds, giving the under a 67% chance of hitting.

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Brandon Ingram Under 1.5 3-Pointers

Ingram is a surprisingly low-volume 3-point shooter at this point in his career. He is more efficient than ever from deep (40.9%), but he is only taking 3.8 3’s a game and making 1.6. Of course, hitting his season average would still be an over, albeit a narrow one, though Stokastic is projecting him for only 1.2 against the Lakers tonight.

Even as the lone featured option for the Pelicans now with Zion Williamson out — and C.J. McCollum questionable tonight — Ingram has only hit two-plus 3’s in two of his last eight games. He also only made 28.6% of his attempts during this stretch. Ingram is scoring plenty, posting three 30-point games in the last four, but it is coming from inside arc.

The Lakers present a slightly positive matchup for 3’s since they rank second in pace and allow the fourth-most attempts and 11th-most makes, but their opponent 3-point percentage is fifth lowest. Plus, Ingram went 0-for-3 from 3 in his one matchup against Los Angeles this season. NBA Bet Pro is only projecting him for 1.2 3’s tonight, and the under has a 66% expected win rate.

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Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.