It was an insanely high-scoring first night of the basketball season, one where we had some success with our NBA DFS picks. But there’s always room for improvement here in the Switch and Hedge, especially with a three-game slate in front of us tonight. As will be the case this season in the Switch and Hedge, we’re eschewing the game-by-game breakdowns for a focus on the items I find most interesting in an effort to help us all build better lineups. So let’s get to it as I walk you through the key angles I see so far for some of Oct. 24’s best NBA DFS picks in the Switch and Hedge!
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Seriously How Is This Dude So Cheap NBA DFS Picks
James Harden is fairly cheap on FanDuel but at under $10,000 on DraftKings, I don’t see how you wouldn’t just lock him in. Harden saw barely any decrease in usage in the preseason and the Rockets have made clear they intend to stagger Russell Westbrook and Harden’s minutes to maximize their effectiveness. Harden matches up with a Milwaukee team that will allow opponents to shoot threes at a high clip with 36.1 attempts per game last year. Their defensive focus will help out Harden’s own shooting while also offering additional assist opportunities as others get looks. The end sum is a spot where Harden has a gigantic ceiling as well as a stable floor.
Are We Sure We Trust The Uber Chalk? NBA DFS Picks
I mentioned the benefit Andre Drummond sees when Blake Griffin is off the floor in yesterday’s Switch and Hedge. But even an aggressive projection would have been unlikely to guess 32 points and 23 boards for Drummond versus the stout interior of Indiana. I like Drummond a lot as a player—and the fact that he was used in some more face-up plays offers him more offensive potential overall—but he played 41 minutes yesterday.
Now, in a back-to-back, he faces an Atlanta team who played at a high 106.4 pace last season. Drummond was able to put up 67.75 FP in an injured Blake game versus them last year. But will the big man be able to handle the situation after such a massive workload yesterday? I think it’s a legitimate question to ask despite Drummond’s soft pricing. And it’s one that will likely have me a bit under the field on Drummond today as the most popular play industry-wide. I might be more interested in point chasing Luke Kennard. Kennard is a 0.92 FPPM player without Griffin, and he is more equipped to continue an elevated workload that saw him take 13 shots, including nine from deep, in the opener.
Favorite Value NBA DFS Picks
Many people are likely to chase Marquese Chriss‘s big preseason efforts with a very low price based upon our ownership projections. But with Kevon Looney back in the mix, I might be more inclined for starting Glenn Robinson. Robinson is near minimum prices industry-wide. He also had over one FPPM in two of his four preseason games this year. He’s not likely to see any attention of note from a Clippers team who has much bigger fish to fry with one Stephen Curry and even D’Angelo Russell. That makes me think Robinson could find some success today despite his low-usage role. I find guys like Robinson and punt dart throws like DeAndre’ Bembry, Robin Lopez, P.J. Tucker, and the currently questionable Markieff Morris to be guys I want in lineups in order to get mixes of the studs who seem too cheap for a slate of this size.
Favorite Mid-Priced NBA DFS Picks
I’d be lying if I said I loved a lot of guys in the mid-priced tier on this short slate, a large reason why I’m more punt focused than usual today. That said, Alex Len is a guy I like a lot in that range. Atlanta is extremely low on playable bigs and with Drummond across from them, you’ll need someone of comparable girth to take a crack at him. Even if Drummond’s minutes normalize at a more logical 33 minutes, Len and his 1.1 FPPM would likely benefit and also see opportunity for boards and put backs close to the rim as he plays near Drummond’s sweet spots. Currently, I’d say that Len and a likely increased workload for Eric Gordon are my two favorite mid-priced guys on the slate.
Don’t Sleep On The Clippers NBA DFS Picks
We saw the hot start the Clippers had versus the Lakers in their opener. And while Kawhi Leonard stole all the headlines with his transcendent debut, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell pulled their own weight and then some. Williams and Harrell correlate well and they both saw over 37 minutes in the season opener. While the minutes can flow away from them as bench players, it seems likely the two will remain in the Clippers’ closing group. Between them and value plays like JaMychal Green and Maurice Harkless (who likely pull minutes away from each other a bit), the Clippers feel really underowned versus a Golden State defense who should be far worse with the roster moves they made in the offseason.
First Round NBA DFS Picks
I like the idea of finding ways to afford Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the same lineup, the latter of whom averaged 17.5 rebounds versus Houston in two games last year. There’s no reason to think the battle between Houston and Milwaukee won’t be competitive. With both studs’ prices down but the opportunity as good or better for both, I want a lot of these guys. It may be a tournament move that’s more underrepresented than it should be due to people finding money for Drummond, Curry, and even Russell but this battle of the last two MVPs seems like one that could be extremely appealing.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys tomorrow for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!
