With only two games on the card in the NBA Thursday evening, bettors must do some digging to find high-value NBA player props at PrizePicks. Neither the Spurs-Pelicans nor the Wizards-Jazz matchups are projected to be that close — sportsbooks set the spreads for both games north of six points.
To make it easier, Stokastic has a PrizePicks NBA player props tool with industry-leading projections. Available via Stokastic’s new NBA Bet Pro package, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected hit rate instead of manually sifting through each game to find value. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a free three-day trial of the product.
Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro model is all over these three NBA player props at PrizePicks.
PrizePicks NBA Player Props | Dec. 22
Jakob Poeltl Prop O/U 8 Rebounds
The San Antonio Spurs aren’t expected to beat the New Orleans Pelicans, but this prop total feels a bit low for their starting center, Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl’s rebounding prop sits at 8.5 at most sportsbooks, and the veteran big is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game this year.
Poeltl should have no problem beating this total. The Pelicans have allowed the eighth-most rebounds per game to centers this year. Neither Zion Williamson nor Brandon Ingram will be available to contend with Poeltl on the glass. Further, Stokastic’s projections have him nabbing 9.9 rebounds tonight, which gives this play an expected hit rate of 77%, the highest of any option on the board.
Best NBA Player Prop:
Devin Vassell Prop O/U 4 Rebounds
Like Poeltl, Devin Vassell has received a low rebounding prop for tonight’s game against the Pelicans. Vassell sits at 4.5 on most sportsbooks and has averaged exactly 4 rebounds per game this year. However, with the Pelicans playing at a fast pace, Vassell should get a handful of extra possessions to cash the over.
Backing the over on Vassell’s rebounding prop offers a positive return. Stokastic’s projections have the young wing coming down with 4.6 rebounds tonight, which gives the over an expected win rate of 68%. Only two other props — not including Poeltl’s rebound prop — have higher expected win rates. Bettors can view those lines on Stokastic’s PrizePicks NBA player props tool.
Best NBA Player Prop: Devin Vassell Over 4 Rebounds
Jose Alvarado Prop O/U 9.5 Points
The New Orleans Pelicans have found a plucky defender in Jose Alvarado. But with both Ingram and Williamson sidelined, Alvarado could see an uptick in usage on offense. Since Alvarado is averaging 9.2 points per game on the year, even a slight uptick in volume could mean big things for the second-year guard.
Alvarado should handily beat this total tonight. The Spurs rank dead last in defensive rating, and Stokastic’s projections have Alvarado racking up 12.1 points tonight. That gives this prop an expected win rate of 67%. Bettors eager to throw more props into their PrizePicks lineup should check out the PrizePicks NBA player props tool for 14 other lines with expected win rates of 60% or higher.
Best NBA Player Prop: Jose Alvarado Over 9.5 Points
