It’s a modest slate, but the PrizePicks winnings could be substantial, as Stokastic’s PrizePicks NBA player props tool — with industry-leading projections — has tabbed a number of props as high-value targets. It is a rebound-heavy day of NBA player props, so let’s get into the best options there, starting with Raptors star Pascal Siakam.
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PrizePicks NBA Player Props | Jan. 27
Pascal Siakam Over 7.5 Rebounds
Siakam keeps his rebounding totals right at this line virtually every time he suits up. In his past nine games, he has finished with between seven and nine rebounds eight times, and he grabbed 11 in the one game in which he fell outside of that range. Even with this consistency, he is leaning slightly towards the over, grabbing at least eight rebounds in five of the nine games.
The matchup with Golden State should help Siakam edge that way again tonight, as the Warriors have just one big — Draymond Green — projecting for over 20 minutes. Kevon Looney and Jonathan Kuminga will fill out the frontcourt rotation at 19-ish minutes apiece, meaning Siakam will be playing power forward and center exclusively against players 6-foot-9 and shorter. As a team the Warriors have allowed the ninth-most rebounds this season.
With all of that in play, the PrizePicks NBA player props tool is projecting Siakam for 8.71 rebounds, giving the over on 7.5 a 64% expected win rate.
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Ja Morant Over 5.5 Rebounds
The PrizePicks NBA player props tool is all in on rebound props today, as that category takes up seven of the top 10 win expectancies today. Morant checks in at No. 4 in the tool (behind Siakam and two Stephen Curry props that were covered in the NBA Bet Pro article) with a projection of 6.51 rebounds and a 63% win rate for the over. It’s a fairly lofty projection for a player averaging 5.5 boards — one who also hasn’t hit this over since Jan. 1 — but this game against the Timberwolves has a lot of rebound production potentially flowing to guards.
Much of this could come down to Rudy Gobert. Gobert is currently questionable and has missed three of the last five games, though Stokastic is projecting him to play and grab 13.9 rebounds. Even with that projection, guards D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards and Morant are all projecting for at least six rebounds in this game, and those will likely go up if Gobert is ruled out. These are two teams that play extremely fast (both top 6 in pace) and have up-and-down efficiency, so the expectation is a lot of shots ricocheting to perimeter players.
Morant has played the Timberwolves twice this season and is 1-for-2 on this over; the hit was a 10-rebound outing and the miss was a narrow one of five rebounds. His Stokastic projection of 6.51 rebounds would only be Morant’s 16th hit on over 5.5 this year, but the environment is a suiting one for that to happen.
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