I’m not sure who came up with this schedule at the league office, but going from an 11-game slate (before COVID took two of them) to a three-gamer for Thursday, then ramping back up to 12 games for Friday is insanity. I’m not sure the reasoning, but I suppose all you can do is play the slate that’s in front of you. So let’s dig deep and find some quality NBA DFS picks and strategy for this trio of matchups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | Jan. 21
Say it Ain’t Bledsoe
In the words of Weezer, “your drug is a heartbreaker.” While that is an excerpt from a song centered on longstanding family issues and substance abuse, in recent weeks it could just as easily be about my Eric Bledsoe addiction. You see, I couldn’t seem to quit the guy despite slate after slate of sadness and disappointment. So after Tuesday’s tumultuous 15.8-FanDuel-point outing to decimate my lineups yet again, I swore that enough was enough.
That is, I did until FanDuel decided to chop $800 off the top of his salary, putting a “how is this real” price of $4,700 next to his name. Perhaps I’m beguiled by the Bledsoe of better days with the Bucks, where he was averaging well over a fantasy point per minute despite confusingly limited run in Milwaukee. Or maybe I just assumed before the season there would be uninhibited opportunity on the offensive end, as Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are the only other Pelican options with any capable abilities to put up points.
But truth is I don’t know how to get away from this tag on FanDuel tomorrow. Despite only one game out of 12 with over 32 fantasy points this season as well as the lowest usage rate since his rookie season (18.8%), I’m still projecting 28-plus minutes for Bledsoe should this back-to-back against the Jazz stay closer. He’s also in a pricing tier by himself at point guard; Elfrid Payton is $600 more with what I’ll assume will be a similar projection, and there’s virtually no one playable below him. So if you want to stack in studs elsewhere on FanDuel for this three-game slate, he feels like an easy way to do it.
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The King on DraftKings
I talked about one play I’m keying in on for FanDuel, so let’s do the same for DraftKings. Unlike Bledsoe, LeBron James is still up to his old tricks on a per-minute basis. He’s also eclipsed the 18-point, five-assist and five-rebound marks in every single game of this young season. The problem is twofold: 1) The Lakers don’t want to extend his minutes after the bubble run, and 2) the Lakers don’t need to extend his minutes because they’re pretty good without doing so. As a result, James’ production has topped off this season at 47.3 DraftKings points per game, which is far from ideal when paying a five-figure salary for someone.
Enter Thursday. James’ price comes in at a bargain-basement rate (for him) of $9,200. That’s the lowest I can recall seeing from him in the past seven-plus years I’ve been playing NBA DFS. It’s also a matchup against the Bucks the Lakers should be primed for, as it may be the only game they enter as underdogs all season (currently +1). Considering James just saw a season-high 38 minutes against Golden State on Monday, and now had two days off to rest before this matchup, I would have been expecting big things from LeBron even if he had a $10,000-plus price tag. But at $9,200 with no back-to-back on either side of this one, I’ll be loading up regardless of ownership.
Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups
- Alec Burks is set to return after a lengthy four-week absence. I doubt I’ll have any interest unless Tom Thibodeau specifically states he won’t be on a minutes limit. But what this really does for me is downgrade the appeal of playing these Knicks who have seen astronomical minutes of late, specifically Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett. Not because he’ll cut into their court time at all but because their prices haven’t adjusted for the re-entry of a 25.4% usage guy back into the rotation.
- It bums me out that James Wiseman had to play as well as he did on Wednesday because now I expect the ownership to be there tomorrow. If he comes in projected under 20% on either site, I assure you I will be double the field.
- I can’t even talk about Jordan Clarkson anymore. I will again be underweight on the shooting-dependent guard, so I assume he will again go off.
- Just play Zion Williamson.
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