2023 Charles Schwab Challenge PGA DFS Preview: The Tommy Fleetwood Breakout is Imminent

After the second major championship of the season, the PGA rolls on with another elevated event on the schedule. The Charles Schwab Challenge is a long-standing event that has gone by many monikers in the past (The Colonial, something to do with Dean & Deluca) but has always been played at the same venue in Colonial Country Club. Colonial is a medium-length par 70 venue that features some of the tightest fairways and driving chutes on the PGA Tour and places a massive emphasis on placement off the tee (overpower). Let’s get into Charles Schwab Challenge DFS picks and preview.

The field this week may see some late withdrawals given the major last week, which was played in brutal conditions, but for the most part, expect the players who do show up to grind it out given the big money and FedEx Cup points at stake. Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and last year’s winner Sam Burns are all in the field at Colonial with 11 of the world’s top 30 players from the OWGR teeing things up. Some big names taking the week off include Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele.

Despite this not being a major, there is still big money at stake, with DraftKings offering some big single-entry prize pools, so check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, to get an edge. But first, let’s preview the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge for DraftKings DFS.

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2023 Charles Schwab Challenge DFS Preview & Picks

Despite the technical nature of the course, this event has seen a big variety of winners in the past with power hitters like Jason Kokrak and Phil Mickelson (who won here twice) still managing to find success at this course over the last decade and half. Their wins (and others) came mostly by way of great iron play and putting as the venue tends to put far less stress on power off the tee and instead rewards good course management and precision.

Colonial plays as a par 70 so it’s also very par 4 heavy, with many of the holes coming in around 400 to 450 yards. That also lends itself to a very specific approach basket this week and players who can get in a groove between 150 to 200 yards will find themselves with plenty of birdie chances on those holes.

The placement on the schedule for this event is also worth talking about, especially from a trend perspective. The event was the first one back on the schedule in May 2020 (after the Covid stoppage) but has been played directly after the PGA Championship every season since the PGA Championship moved to May, in 2019. That means there are three seasons of results to look at to see how the winners fared in the PGA Championship the week prior.

In those three seasons where the Charles Schwab has been played directly after the PGA in May, each of the winners were in the field the week prior at the PGA Championship. The last two winners (Kokrak ‘2021 + Burns 2022) both made the cut but finished outside the top 15. Na, in 2019 played the PGA Championship but missed the cut.

One interesting note about all three of those winners is that all of them gained strokes on approach and putting at the PGA Championship the week prior — so their iron and putting games looked to be in good form already. It’s an important note as those are the areas which have been key for success at Colonial.


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Charles Schwab Challenge DFS Picks: Betting Trends

  • Each of the past three winners (excluding 2020) had played in the PGA Championship the week prior
  • The last two winners had played in the PGA Championship — and made the cut
  • Each of the last 10 winners of the Charles Schwab Invitational had a T8 finish or better on the PGA Tour in one of their previous six starts before their respective win
  • Four of the last seven winners finished T14 or better at Colonial in the season before their win

Below are some of the top players in the field to watch this week given their recent form and course history:

  1. Scottie Scheffler: Scheffler gave it a valiant effort last Sunday but came up just short of grabbing his second major. He has finished top five in each of his last two starts.
  2. Viktor Hovland: Hovland rebounded in a big way at the PGA Championship, landing in third place for the week. He has finished top 10 at both of the year’s first two majors.
  3. Cameron Davis: Davis had a spirited PGA which saw him shoot 65 on Sunday, one of the best rounds of the event. He has grabbed three top-10 finishes over his last five starts.
  4. Stephan Jaeger: Jaeger had a poor finish to his event last week dropping to T50 on Sunday but recorded his eighth made cut in nine starts. His ball-striking has been tremendous over his last three starts as well.
  5. Tommy Fleetwood: Fleetwood had a solid PGA Championship finishing in a tie for 18th. The Englishman ranks sixth in strokes gained on approach over the last 50 rounds of play.

Field Notes: There are 11 of the world’s top 30 in the field. Jordan Spieth won this event in 2016 and is in the field but he’s someone to watch early in the week given the wrist issues he has been dealing with of late… Names who missed the cut last week but are playing include Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im and Sam Burns… A couple of international names of interest for DFS purposes include Ryan Fox and Min Woo Lee.

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Charles Schwab Past Winners and Winners Stats

2022: Sam Burns

  • Lead-in: 20/MC/MC (20th at PGA Champ week prior)
  • Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.9/SG:APP 3.9/SG:ATG 0.2/SG:PUTT 5.0/SG:TTG 7.5

2021: Jason Kokrak

  • Lead-in: 49/13/49 (49th at PGA week prior)
  • Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 6.2/SG:APP 5.2/SG:ATG -2.0/SG:PUTT 5.4/SG:TTG 9.4

2020: Daniel Berger

  • Lead-in: 9/5/4 (first event played in 2020 after Covid Stoppage)
  • Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 1.1/SG:APP 5.4/SG:ATG 1.0/SG:PUTT 5.2/SG:TTG 7.6

Recent winners of this event have very similar profiles. All men had outstanding weeks in two areas — approach and putting. While Colonial does have smaller greens with lots of bunkers in play, around the green play didn’t factor into their wins much. Above-average placement off the tee was crucial but by far the biggest correlation between the winners was great iron play. Angles to focus on include good recent form in strokes gained on approach and proximity stats, as each of the last four winners gained strokes on approach in their prior start.

Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Course Preview

Colonial: Par 70, 7,209 yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Designer: Architect (year): John Bredemus / Perry Maxwell (1936)

Similar Courses: Hilton Head (Harbour Town Golf Links), Waialae CC, Copperhead CC

Colonial is best described as a classic, tree-lined, specialist’s course. Any elite player who brings in their top iron game and a solid putting stroke can of course win here, and last season Scottie Scheffler almost cashed in his fifth win of the season at this very spot. However, because the course is so approach-centric and involves tons of tight driving chutes and doglegs, the players further back in the field who have elite putting upside and some form with their irons can often find themselves in the mix. The venue has produced plenty of mid-range to long-shot winners with names like Chris Kirk, Kevin Na and even last season Sam Burns, finding wins.

While there are seven par 4’s between 400 and 450 yards not all of them cinches to produce birdie chances as players will generally still be left with plenty of 150- to 175-yard approaches due to the routing of the course. Approach proximity and strokes gained approach have been the key stats to focus on here and it’s worth noting that each of the past four winners had gained strokes on approach in their prior start.

In terms of scoring, the venue has really been tightened up over the past three iterations. Winning scores have only breached 15 under par once over the past five seasons, and twice over that same span winners have finished 9 under par. The faster greens and heavier rough have made ball-striking key and made it less of a birdie fest or shootout.

Key Stats: Par 4 efficiency 400-450 yards / SG: Approach / Proximity 150-175 yards

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2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Recent Form Watch

Top Strokes Gained Approach (last 24 rounds)

Scottie Scheffler
Tony Finau
Collin Morikawa
Jordan Spieth
Rickie Fowler

Par 4 efficiency 400-450 (Last 50 Rounds)

Taylor Montgomery
Scottie Scheffler
Nick Taylor
Akshay Bhatia
Collin Morikawa

Proximity 150-175 yards (Last 50 rounds)

Scott Piercy
Collin Morikawa
Si Woo Kim
Justin Rose
Scottie Scheffler

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Weather Update

Thursday morning: 65-70 F, winds 5-7 mph/10-20% chance of precipitation

Thursday afternoon: 80-82 F, winds 7-9 mph/0% chance of precipitation

Friday morning: 60-65 F, winds 4-6 mph/10-20% chance of precipitation

Friday afternoon: 80-84 F, winds 8-10 mph/0% chance of precipitation

There are some scattered thunderstorms scheduled for earlier in the week prior to the event starting but for the most part, the weather this week looks like it will be relatively mild compared to last week for the PGA. Highs will be in the 80 F region all four days with little to no threat of rain or thunderstorms. Winds the first two days look relatively minimal but are supposed to get worse as the week goes on. If you are wave-stacking for DFS, avoiding Friday afternoon may be somewhat beneficial. The weekend looks like it will play somewhat tougher as well so potentially expect higher scoring if betting golfer props or targeting round scores on Pick’Em sites like Underdog or PrizePicks.

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets

Tommy Fleetwood | BetMGM Outright

Fleetwood enters this week off an 18th-place finish at the PGA Championship and looking solid throughout the bag. He is ranked sixth in strokes gained on approach over the last 24 rounds and has gained multiple strokes on approach in each of his last three starts. That’s great momentum for a technical course like Colonial where the players will be faced with challenging approach shots on nearly every hole. Much like past recent winners, Fleetwood is also coming in with budding confidence on the greens as the flat stick has become more of a friend of late, gaining him over 1.5 strokes in each of his last three starts. Much like recent winners at this event, Fleetwood flashed good upside with the putter and approaches at the PGA but was never seriously involved for the win, so the mental fatigue of contending shouldn’t be an issue. Given there are a handful of top players skipping this week, Fleetwood could be at a similar number to last week (he was 50 to 65-1 at the PGA depending on the sportsbook), which would be tremendous from a value perspective given both his form and the scaled-down competition.

Denny McCarthy | BetMGM Outright

In terms of a ladder or placement bet target this week, Denny McCarthy makes a whole ton of sense at this course. The technical nature of Colonial suits the skillset perfectly of a player who can’t compete with the best in the world off the tee (even on a good day) but certainly has proven that his mid to short iron play can be elite in bursts. When you couple the nuclear upside that McCarthy brings with his putter, Colonial is the kind of track to target him long-term. He has been very solid over his last few starts, posting an eighth at the Wells Fargo and has been top 25 in each of his last three elite field starts, prior to the PGA Championship. McCarthy may have only finished 34th last week but gained over 4.0 strokes on approach and putting and looks locked in in those two phases of the game. With a great venue and some big names skipping this week, he’s a great player to target in the DFS streets and the top 10/20/40 betting markets.

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