The Masters is a special event for several reasons, the biggest of which is the uniqueness of Augusta National. It is a hilly beast of a par 72 that has some of the fastest greens the players will see all season and lots of little doglegs that make tee shots and approaches more difficult. As a result, when looking through the Masters first-round leader winners from past seasons, there are some very obvious trends, the biggest of which speaks to experience. There are a lot of veteran names who have had success here on Day 1 and very few young players who get out to an early lead.
With the weather also creating uncertainty once again, we will look to OddsShopper’s golf betting tools to identify the best value options for first-round leader selections for the 2023 Masters.
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2023 Masters First Round Leader Bets
Over the past five years that this event was played in April, the first-round leaders have all come from tee times that went off at some point in the afternoon. With the weather for this week also featuring unseasonably cool temperatures and some potential early morning gusts on Thursday, it does also look like later starters may again gain a slight advantage. While there is no need to stick to just one certain wave or tee time, if deciding between two players, the recommendation from the trends and the current forecast is to go with the player starting later in Round 1.
Max Homa First Round Leader (+3400) at BetMGM
Outside of Scottie Scheffler, Homa has been the most consistent player on the PGA in 2023. He is also starting to hit that sweet spot in terms of experience at Augusta. Last season marked his third start at the event, and while he has not played the venue as much as other top players (or had a ton of success just yet), he has made leaps and bounds this season overall. Homa also shot rounds of 4 under and 7 under par in his first rounds at Riviera and Torrey Pines this season (two of the toughest non-major venues on the PGA), and he comes into this week third in first-round scoring.
While his Augusta track record may not look great, Homa’s success at other championship-style venues like Riviera, Torrey Pines and Quail Hollow suggests that buying in now is the way to go. Considering he has a late-afternoon tee time this week (1:36 p.m. local), his +3400 odds look good enough to take a shot. Maybe his lack of experience will stop him from winning the event, but Homa’s accomplishments and budding confidence should see him start fast in the year’s biggest event.
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Jason Day First Round Leader (+3400) at BetMGM
Like Homa, Day has been remarkably consistent this season, placing top 20 in all six of his stroke play starts and showing solid form in every part of his game. He also brings a better experience factor than Homa, having played the course 10 times prior and finishing top 5 three times.
While Day is yet to truly challenge for a win this season, it has been several years since he has been healthy enough to play alongside the game’s elite. Day did show that a return to glory may be near after he eliminated Collin Morikawa from his pod at the Match Play and then stretched out Scottie Scheffler in the quarterfinals — even having the world No. 1 down three holes at one point. Day should take a ton of momentum from that event into this week, and seeing it translate into a fast opener on Thursday would not be shocking. With solid odds and a great afternoon tee time, Day makes sense as a veteran player to anchor first-round leader cards.
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2023 Masters First Round Leader Longshot Bets
Long-shot bets in the first-round leader market hit all the time on the PGA Tour. You can always use OddsShopper’s tools to check out and compare odds across the major sites.
Min Woo Lee First Round Leader (+5500) at BetMGM
Min Woo Lee First Round Top 5 (+800) at BetMGM
Lee popped up on the radar at this event last season, posting a surprising 14th-place finish in his first go around Augusta. The finish is significant given the conditions last year were somewhat similar to expectations for 2023, with cooler temperatures and heavier winds. Lee also showed some great form recently at THE PLAYERS, where he was the only person on the course to push Scheffler, eventually ending the event in sixth place in his first TPC Sawgrass start. The talent is clearly all there, as Lee made 21 birdies and an eagle at Sawgrass and has opened four of his last seven events with rounds of 68 or better. Adding Lee to the card also provides exposure to an earlier part of the draw and some long odds to chase in the top-5 markets, where he is +800 on BetMGM.
Cameron Champ First Round Leader (+10000) at BetMGM
Cameron Champ First Round Top 5 (+2000) at BetMGM
Champ is not a name to worry about for outright betting (at least this season), but he could certainly pop up this week with a hot round. He has absolutely dominated the par 5’s at Augusta National over his career and shot 68 in four of his 12 lifetime rounds at the course. While he has missed all but one cut this season, Champ hovered around the cut line in his last couple starts and may be close to a small breakthrough. He also made seven birdies and an eagle in just two rounds last week at the Valero (on another tough course) while gaining strokes on approach for the first time in over three starts. Champ is a wild card but at 100-1 or greater in the first-round leader market, he brings a solid basket of power and course experience to target for one round.
