EPL DFS Picks: Haaland and Manchester City to Overthrow Arsenal

The EPL DFS main slate on Wednesday sees four matches with two favorites in prime spots. Manchester City host Arsenal in a battle to overtake the EPL title race. Brighton go on the road as equal favorites to Manchester City against Nottingham Forest. Chelsea are slight favorites at home with Brentford looking for an upset. West Ham are strong at home as they look to stop the potent attack of Liverpool. Manchester City and Brighton are the focal points with value coming from Chelsea and the West Ham vs Liverpool match. Let’s take a look at our best EPL DFS picks and find where it makes sense to spend up.

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EPL DFS Picks & Predictions

EPL DFS Picks For Forwards/Midfield

Erling Haaland (DraftKings: $8,600)

Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings: $8,500)

Manchester City and Arsenal are trending in opposite directions in the EPL title race. Arsenal have coughed up a number of wins that resulted in three straight draws while Manchester City have been rolling through their opponents. Arsenal sit top two in the EPL defensively with an expected goals against of 1.15. Manchester City are the top offensive side in the EPL with an expected goals for at home of 2.28. The recent form sees Manchester City posting three plus goals in four of their last five outings, while Arsenal have conceded two plus in three of their previous five outings to lesser offenses.

The attack of Manchester City is headlined by Erling Haaland, who averages north of a goal per match and 3.64 shots per match with an on target accuracy clip of 47%. Haaland is coming in too cheap on DraftKings with an anytime goal line of -163. The setup man in the midfield is Kevin De Bruyne. De Bruyne has one of the highest floors and comes in too cheap as well. He sits on an average 2.48 shots per match and 8.42 crosses. The presence of Riyad Mahrez cuts into the direct set pieces for De Bruyne and without him in the starting eleven De Bruyne is a core play in all formats. Mahrez is a GPP option should he see the starting eleven. Jack Grealish, Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva round out GPP stacking options with Gundogan and Silva coming in at sub $6,000 on the asking price and accounting for 10% of the goal contributions each.

Arsenal will not take a beating without counter punches of their own. Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka have a floor with split set shares and sit among the top scorers for their club. Arsenal are the second highest scoring club on the road in the EPL and Manchester City have failed to keep clean sheets in a number of outings. Saka comes in at a high asking price making him a strict GPP play only while Martinelli comes at a discount and former Manchester City man Gabriel Jesus offers instant leverage when finding the back of the net. Arsenal are mainly reserved for GPP pairings or one offs. The asking price and match up will keep ownership down on Arsenal’s potent attackers.

Alexis Mac Allister (DraftKings: $7,600)

Julio Enciso (DraftKings: $5,800)

Brighton have a favorable match up on the road against Nottingham Forest. Nottingham are the second worst defense in the RPL at home with an expected goals allowed of 1.52 per match. Brighton sport a top three offense on the road with an expected goals of 1.78 per match. The Brighton attack have floor plays in Solly March and Pascal Gross. Regardless weather they find the back of the net, Gross and March post some of the highest floors on the slate with goal contributions being the upside. March contributes on 28% of the club’s overall scoring while Gross comes in with 24%. With the presence of Manchester City and Liverpool on the slate a one-off of either is different enough and pairing them with the volume shooters makes sense.

Alexis Mac Allister is a prime goal hunting threat to start the pairing. He sits at an average four shots per match in his recent run of form and leads the club with eight goals on the year. The Argentine international handles penalties for the club and comes at a discount from Gross and March with the risk of a lower floor. Julio Enciso comes in as an interesting stack piece considering the discounted rate. He has a limited run when starting matches but the shot volume is there at a 90 min run rate just shy of six shots per match. The sub $6,000 salary will not sink lineups should he fail to score and he frees up salary for the top targets from Manchester City, Brighton and Liverpool. Karou Mitoma rounds out the attacking pieces for GPP options. Mitoma ties March in goals scored for the club and trails only March with 4.32 scoring chances created per match.

Said Benrahma (DraftKings: $7,500)

Diogo Jota (DraftKings: $8,200)

West Ham welcome Liverpool who look to crawl back into top five form. West Ham have conceded at home to lesser offenses and Liverpool have kept just one clean sheet on the road to Chelsea in recent form. This match looks to post more goals than the previous two meetings between the two clubs that saw 1-0 results in each. The set shares are dominated by the defense for both sides with Jared Bowen getting in on the action for West Ham on his side of the pitch. His asking price makes him a GPP only play given the dog tag on the money line odds for West Ham at home. Goal hunters are worth the roster spot in this match up. The instant plug will come from Mohammed Salah and at the top tier prices Haaland is the better play to spend up.

Said Benrahma is a goal hunting option that will go under the radar given the money line odds and the options from Brighton and Manchester City. He handles set shares and averages 3.11 shots per match and 4.08 scoring chances created per match both of which lead the home side. He comes in slightly discounted form Bowen and handles the penalties and direct attempts on free kicks. Declan Rice offers value with 4.50 won tackles and interceptions per match and an attempt at the net for upside at a sub $5,000 asking price.

The Liverpool attack can score in a hurry and Diogo Jota is a big reason why. Jota has scored on an average 58.3% of his starts since arriving at Liverpool. In that run he sees an average 3.28 shots per match and 41% on target accuracy. Jota sees 3.07 scoring chances created per match in the same run and offers leverage in GPP’s given an asking price sure to keep ownership under 10% on DraftKings.

Other Options: Matias Jensen (DraftKings: $5,900); Ivan Toney (DraftKings: $7,500); Mohammed Salah (DraftKings: $9,300), Martin Odegaard (DraftKings: $6,800).

EPL DFS Picks For Defender

Aaron Cresswell (DraftKings: $5,600)

Ben Chilwell (DraftKings: $6,100)

The prime option at the defender spot is Trent Alexander Arnold. He sees north of nine crosses per match and has the highest floor in a plus match up. He is a core play. Alongside Alexander-Arnold is Ben Chilwell and Aaron Cresswell. Chilwell handles indirect set shares for Chelsea and sees a Brentford side that has struggled to keep possession and the ball out the back of the net. Chilwell sees an average 5.91 crosses per match and 2.82 scoring chances created. His 2.89 won tackles and interceptions round out the floor. Marc Cucurella is a pivot for a huge discount and indirect set shares should he get the nod in the starting eleven.

Cresswell will go overlooked with a high salary and the presence of Liverpool’s and Chelsea’s wingbacks on the slate. Creswell handles indirect sets for West Ham and sees an average 5.87 crosses with 3.31 scoring chances created. The lack of on target attempts is a concern for Cresswell making him a GPP play only at the given salary.

Other Options: Joel Veltman (DraftKings: $3,500).

EPL DFS Picks For Goalkeeper

Luckasz Fabianski (DraftKings: $4,300)

David Raya (DraftKings: $4,100)

Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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