Today’s main MLB DFS offers plenty of options for gamers to exploit. That means MLB DFS value options abound. In today’s column, we will analyze each game and pinpoint the players to target. Without further ado, here are some potential MLB DFS value picks for Tuesday, May 23, including Gerrit Cole.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | May 23
Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Bradish) at New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole)
Both pitchers have tough matchups, but Cole is one of the top options on the slate. He has struck out 26.8 percent of hitters with a 3.00 FIP so far this season. Bradish has been solid with a 21 percent strikeout rate and 4.21 FIP, but he probably won’t be necessary on this slate outside of the occasional large-field tournament lineup. Both offenses have plenty of upside but are low-probability plays in their respective matchups.
San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish) at Washington Nationals (MacKenzie Gore)
We have two more good pitchers facing off in this one. Darvish has the better matchup as the Nationals’ active roster has just a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of last season. Darvish enters the game with a 27.2 percent strikeout rate and 3.68 FIP so far this season. Gore has struck out 29 percent of hitters with a 3.67 FIP this season. His only real issue has been an 11.7 percent walk rate. The matchup is more difficult against a talented San Diego squad, but he is still a viable SP2 in large-field tournaments at low ownership.
Los Angeles Dodgers (Bobby Miller) at Atlanta Braves (Spencer Strider)
Strider has the best strikeout rate on the slate by a wide margin at 41.5 percent to go along with a 2.18 FIP. He has a dangerous matchup, but the Dodgers only have a 3.5 implied run total. Miller is a talented young pitcher making his Major League debut. He is very inexpensive at $5,200 on DraftKings, but we can find inexpensive pitchers in better matchups. Atlanta is a high-upside stack against Miller in his debut.
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New York Mets (Tylor Megill) at Chicago Cubs (Drew Smyly)
Kodai Senga was expected to start, but now it is Megill. He has struggled this season after posting strong numbers last year. He’s reasonably priced at $7,200, but there are plenty of other options that look more appealing tonight. Smyly is an average pitcher who isn’t likely to be necessary on this slate. Neither offense looks great, though the Cubs do look better now that Megill is getting the start for New York.
Detroit Tigers (Eduardo Rodriguez) at Kansas City Royals (Mike Mayers)
It looked like Daniel Lynch was going to pitch for Kansas City today, but they opted to give him another rehab start and have Mayers pitch tonight. He threw 56 pitches in 2.2 innings against the Padres his last time out and likely isn’t worth rostering even at $4,000. Rodriguez, on the other hand, has been very impressive this season. He has struck out 24.4 percent of hitters with a 3.23 FIP and appears to be fully healthy after dealing with some injuries and health issues over the last few seasons. He is only projected for 6.6 percent ownership in the Top Pitchers tool with an 11 percent chance of being a top-two option. The Tigers project as the best value stack tonight as there are only three hitters in their projected lineup with salaries north of $3,000, and they have an implied run total of nearly 4.9.
Houston Astros (J.P. France) at Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea): France is a bit of a wildcard. He has posted strong strikeout numbers in the minors but doesn’t have much of a track record yet in the majors. Milwaukee has a 4.5 implied run total in a hitter-friendly park, and they are inexpensive throughout their lineup. The Astros have a strong matchup against Rea. He has been surprisingly decent at limiting power so far this season, but Houston has one of the most talented lineups in baseball and they have the second-highest Top Stack percentage while also being projected for positive leverage in the Top Stacks tool.
San Francisco Giants (Alex Cobb) at Minnesota Twins (Sonny Gray)
Now we are back to another game with two strong pitchers. Gray is the more appealing DFS pitcher as he has the second-highest strikeout rate on the slate at 29.6 percent (excluding Eury Perez’s first two starts with Miami). Gray also has a dominant 2.01 FIP and has yet to allow a home run this season. The lack of power against him is backed up by a .115 xISO to left-handed hitters and a .131 xISO to right-handed hitters this season. Cobb is also very good at preventing power, though he has only struck out about 20 percent of hitters. Gray is the bigger priority between the two, but Cobb is a viable MLB DFS pick at SP2 if you can’t quite afford a second ace.
Miami Marlins (Eury Perez) at Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
Perez is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and has struck out 33.3 percent of the hitters he has faced through his first two starts with Miami. If you want to roll the dice with his talent at a cheap price tag, it’s not the craziest idea, but, realistically, it doesn’t look necessary to roster him in Coors Field on this slate. If it were yesterday or the day before when we had very little strong pitching, it would make a lot more sense. Miami is once again the most likely stack to succeed, and they are also pulling the most ownership. Colorado has the more difficult matchup, but they are also projected to go under-owned relative to their top stack percentage and compared to the Marlins.
Boston Red Sox (Brayan Bello) at Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning)
It doesn’t seem like a slate where we will need to pay down all that often but, when we do, Brayan Bello looks like the top option. It is a dangerous spot as the Angels have a 4.8 implied run total in a favorable park for offenses and Bello is still a young, inconsistent pitcher. But when he is able to locate his pitches, he is a good strikeout pitcher who also gets groundballs. So far this season, he has struck out 23.8 percent of hitters, but he also has a 4.87 FIP. At $6,300, he is a viable SP2, just keep in mind that it is a dangerous spot. Both offenses are interesting in tournaments as they project to be lower-owned than their top stack percentages.
Oakland Athletics (Luis Medina) at Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzales)
Gonzales isn’t any good, as he has struck out just 15.3 percent of hitters with a 4.72 FIP this season, but the Athletics are also terrible. If you need a cheap pitcher and don’t want to look to Bello in Anaheim or Miller in Atlanta, Gonzales does make some sense. Other than that, the Seattle offense looks good against Medina. They are fifth in top stack percentage and sixth in stack score tonight, making the whole lineup a solid source of MLB DFS value picks.
