Fernando Tatis Jr DFS Price & Ownership Create Interesting Decision

Fernando Tatis Jr. makes his highly anticipated season debut on Thursday, but his DFS pricing and DFS ownership will create an interesting decision for DFS players on the MLB slate.

DraftKings appears to have made a mistake in pricing, leaving the San Diego Padres shortstop at just $2,000 salary. Because of that, he’s receiving an enormous portion of ownership at over 44%, making him by far the most popular position player on the slate. His ownership is only matched by New York Mets starter Kodai Senga, but pitchers often see ownership numbers at that number.

It’s not just the price that has players enticed by Tatis. He’s projected to be the top-scoring position player on the slate, according to Stokastic projections. He’s easily the best ‘value’ on the board, in terms of projected points compared to salary, but there’s more to consider when it comes to rostering him.

The question players must consider is if it’s worth rostering him when he’s such a popular price, or if it’s better to take the risk and fade him or play him underweight to the field to gain leverage.

One way to find that answer is by using Stokastic tools, which can be had for just $2 over the next five days. Eddie ‘1800’ Lai took home $100,000 using our tools, so we want our users to get a chance to try them as well. Use promo code ‘Eddie100MLB’ for either MLB Weekly or MLB Monthly or click here.

At time of publish, the Padres as a whole are one of the top stack options. However, because of the popularity, it’s a negative leverage option. The top leverage option on the slate is Colorado.

Here’s what our experts are saying about the biggest topic of the slate.

Fernando Tatis Jr. DFS Advice

Eric Lindquist

Tatis is returning after missing the entire 2022 season and the first 20 games of 2023 as he served the remainder of his PED suspension. He was still allowed to gear up at Triple-A El Paso, where all he did was hit .515 with seven home runs and a sounds-made-up 294 wRC+ in just eight games. Those are video game numbers but indicate that we could be getting a better version of the player who’s a career .282 hitter with a 157 wRC+.

In fact, we’re expecting that from him here at Stokastic, as he’s the highest-projected batter in our projections at 12.58, over a fantasy point higher than Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman. He also draws a fantastic matchup against Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson, a young righty with a 4.82 xFIP in just 35.1 big league innings.

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And to further amplify things, he’s listed at shortstop-only instead of the outfield, his new position after the Padres acquired shortstop Xander Bogaerts in the offseason. That means any lineup made that could fit the likes of Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson or the aforementioned Bogaerts could also fit Tatis. If he were in the outfield, there would be a stronger case to fade his nearly 50% ownership with more options available to you to surpass his fantasy score.

So what do we do here? Well, if you’re playing cash, you’re simply clicking him into your lineup and moving along with your life, simple as that. For tournaments, let’s head to the Top Batters Tool at Stokastic to help us make an informed decision. Tatis is currently projected to be 44.7% owned with a 48.4% chance of being the best value play on the slate amongst all batters.

But amongst shortstops, Tatis is only the top scoring shortstop 19.8% of the time, meaning four out of every five slates, there will be at least one shortstop that beats him. And in a highly variant sport like baseball, there are plenty of realistic scenarios where Tatis scores 0 fantasy points — unlikely, but certainly in play.

Last thought: This does not mean I’m advocating for a full fade of Tatis in your MLB DFS lineups. Feel free to play him in five-man Padres stacks where avoiding him could cap upside. Play him in lineups that don’t have Senga, who due to his expensive price tag will be highly correlated with dirt-cheap Tatis. And two- or three-mans of Tatis and other Padres can absolutely be used in conjunction with unowned teams such as the Giants or Rockies.

But I truly believe the more you can get away from massively-owned batters on five-game-or-more slates this MLB season — regardless of who they are or what they’re priced— the better you’ll be in the long run.

Steve ‘dacoltz’ Buzzard

Tatis at $2,000 is a tricky one. He is a perennial All-Star and potential MVP candidate. On the surface it feels like he should be a home run to be in all your lineups, but there are a lot of things also going against him.

We currently project Tatis to be greater than 40% owned, and no matter how good hitters are, they fail a lot. For $2,000, you don’t need a lot of points but just for example, Tatis has been under 5 points in about 30% of his games over his last 250. There are a lot of times that he doesn’t hit that value.

The second big thing is you really don’t need a ton of salary savings today. There is no game in Coors Field and no must-have expensive pitchers. Jamming Senga and Sean Manaea into your lineups isn’t necessary by any means.

Overall, those two things outweigh his low price for me. I am not going to fully fade him, and he will be one of my higher-owned players, but I will be underweight his current projected ownership.

Author

Tommy Stokke

Tommy Stokke is the Editor-in-Chief of Stokastic. He was previously a Senior Editor at Action Network, with prior experience in Managing Editor and Director of Content roles throughout sports media. His DFS sport of choice is golf, but his losing lineups are because no one can putt -- not because he picked the wrong players. He can be reached at [email protected]