With March Madness fully underway, the tournament begins with a pair of play-in games on Tuesday, March 14. In addition to the play-in games, six NIT games round out the CBB DFS slate. This column will dive into each game and highlight the top CBB DFS value plays to target with the help of Stokastic’s CBB DFS projections.
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March Madness CBB DFS Value & Advice | March 14
Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
One of the better games to target for CBB DFS on the slate, Texas A&M Corpus Christi is a 3.5-point favorite over Southeast Missouri State in a game with a 156 total. Southeast Missouri offers contrarian pay-up options in Phillip Russell and Chris Harris. Both have played at least 35 minutes in three straight games. In particular, Harris offers double-double upside behind his 25% shot rate, 22% rebound rate and 17% assist rate over the last three games. Dylan Branson and Israel Barnes offer GPP viability at a lower price point, but neither stands out from a usage perspective.
On the Corpus Christi side, Isaac Mushila and Trevian Tennyson look like two of the better plays on the slate. Mushila will play somewhere between 30-35 minutes with the injury to Terrion Murdix. Corpus Christi lost Murdix in the Conference Championship and he led the team in usage throughout the year. This also sets up some strong value pieces, like Tennyson. Tennyson ranks second on the team in usage and nicely slides into lineups at the $6,000 price tag. From there, Jalen Jackson offers minute consistency at a similar price, but his usage falls well below Tennyson. Simeon Fryar and Owen Dease are available as value options due to the injury as well.
Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State is a 2-point favorite over Pittsburgh in a game with a 132.5 total. No one on the Pittsburgh side appeared in the top 50 optimal lines, based on current projections. In GPPs, Jamarius Burton and Blake Hinson both make some sense as usage dominators. Burton comes in as one of the better rebounding guards in the country. Likewise, Hinson offers versatility from a big man that includes 3-point shooting. Nike Sibande could be a GPP value play, playing around 25 minutes a game. However, the game environment leaves much to be desired against Mississippi States eighth ranked defense. Frederiko Frederiko is questionable here, so watch his status before tipoff
The only player appearing at all in optimals for Mississippi State is big man Tolu Smith. Smith has a 17.5% shot rate and 22.7% rebound rate this year, giving him plenty of double-double equity. Shakeel Moore, D.J. Jeffries and Dashawn Davis offer nothing more than GPP one offs from this middling game environment.
Hofstra vs. Rutgers
Rutgers has a 7-point advantage over Hofstra in a game with a 136 total. Nobody from Hofstra appears in the top 50 lineups. They do have a usage dominator in Aaron Estrada, who always deserves GPP consideration. He has a 24% shot rate, 14% rebound rate and 25% assist rate on the year. Unfortunately, he will face a Rutgers defense ranked fourth in the country. Tyler Thomas is also somewhat interesting, but with Estrada only a little more expensive, finding the extra salary makes sense.
Despite the middling game environment, Rutgers has a few decent CBB DFS options. First of all, DraftKings has been slow to realize that Rutgers benched Aundre Hyatt for Derek Simpson. At $4,200, Simpson has played 27, 36 and 23 minutes over the last three games with a 17.8% usage rate. Outside of Simpson as a value, Cliff Omoruyi offers double-double appeal at an affordable price. Hofstra isn’t any slouch on defense, ranking 52nd overall and 31st inside. However, the level of competition favors Rutgers. Cam Spencer, Paul Mulcahy and Caleb McConnell are pure large field tournament options.
Toledo vs. Michigan
The best overall game environment on the slate, Michigan is a 6-point favorite over Toledo in a game with a 161.5 total. Toledo plays a tight rotation of RayJ Dennis, J.T. Shumate, Setric Millner, Dante Maddox and Ra’Heim Moss. All five will play 32-plus minutes, barring foul trouble. This is a situation to get at least one Toledo player in every lineup, but there is no strong preference. Dennis dominates with a 24.95% usage rate and has taken 30.6% of the shots over the last three games. Millner offers the most double-double equity with his rebound rate. However, the cheaper options are solid plays as well.
This might be the best CBB DFS game for Michigan all season. Hunter Dickinson clearly stands out as a preferred pay-up option. In addition, Dug McDaniel appears in 94% of the top 50 lineups based on projections at just $5,200. Between them, Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard offer strong contrarian options attached to an elite game. Dickinson and Howard lead the team in overall usage.
Villanova vs. Liberty
Liberty is a 3.5-point favorite over Villanova in a game with a 137 total. While a middling game environment, Villanova has some large field GPP appeal. Eric Dixon has a 21% shot rate, 21% rebound rate and 13% assist rate on the year. At a similar price, Caleb Daniels should also be in play. Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore were ruled out midday opening plenty of value, including Brandon Slater and Mark Armstrong. Armstong remains one of the better value plays on the entire slate.
Liberty brings a decent team total and one of the best players in the country in Darius McGhee. McGhee will play almost every minute, and he dominates with a 27.5% usage rate. Overall, he has a shot rate and assist rate north of 30%. Kyle Rode also appears in 30% of optimal lineups. Rode has solid usage, but the $6,000 price tag really stands out for a player with 38 and 36 minutes in back-to-back games.
Yale vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt enters this contest as a 3-point favorite over Yale in a game with a 147 total. Unfortunately, Yale runs an extended rotation and Matt Knowling has been banged up for this team. August Mahoney has played at least 33 minutes in three straight games, but his usage leaves much to be desired. The two beneficiaries of the Knowling injury have been John Poulakidas and Bez Mbeng. Poulakidas has the better overall usage with a 19% shot rate, 16% rebound rate and 14% assist rate over the last three games. However, with usage leader Knowling returning to the lineup, none of the Yale lineup provides security. This should be a situation to take stabs in larger-field tournaments.
After a season derailed by injury, Vanderbilt gets their chance at redemption in the NIT. They already lost their best player, Liam Robbins. However, Tyrin Lawrence and Jordan Wright have both stepped up in a major way. Lawrence accounts for a 20% shot rate, 12% rebound rate and 12% assist rate over the last three games. Wright accounts for a 21% shot rate, 36% rebound rate and 21% assist rate in the last three games. Both are strong DFS options here. It was announced today that Myles Stute left the team, so Colin Smith and Quentin Millora-Brown offer offer potential value plays here as well.
Bradley vs. Wisconsin
Easily the worst game environment on the slate, Wisconsin is a 3-point favorite over Bradley in a game with a 127 total. Bradley plays an extended rotation and none of the players pop in projections. Ville Tahvanainen missed their last game and they still found a way to get nine guys on the court. Malevy Leons and Rienk Mast are their best players, but neither stands out for CBB DFS .
Wisconsin doesn’t have a solid team total, so be careful here with the name brand school. This is a situation for one Badger per lineup at the very most. Tyler Wahl leads the way in terms of minutes, usage and double-double upside. Steven Crowl is a baby giraffe on skates, who plays basketball. However, he’s tall and sometimes the ball bounces directly into his hands. Chucky Hepburn and Connor Essegian are both talented guards attached to a 1920’s offense. Both need to get hot from 3 to pay off value.
Seton Hall vs. Colorado
Colorado is a 4-point favorite over Seton Hall in a game with a 137.5 total. Seton Hall has been without Kadary Richmond and Tray Jackson, bringing a late news element to the slate. If both miss the game, Jamir Harris becomes a decent option at $3,400. He played 40, 32 and 30 minutes over the last three games. If one or both return, the whole team is simply too expensive.
Likewise, Colorado will play without K.J. Simpson, J’Vonne Hadley and Javon Ruffin. This opens minutes for value plays Julian Hammond III, Lawson Lovering and Ethan Wright. All three have routinely eclipsed 30 minutes at $5,100 or cheaper. Among the expensive options, Tristan Da Silva continues to dominate usage. While the value pieces make more sense, Da Silva could be a contrarian spend up option, while everyone else in jamming the cheap guys.
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