March Madness DFS Advice: High-Total Two-Game NIT Slate (March 22)

With a break in the NCAA Tournament until tomorrow, the NIT has a pair of games on Wednesday, March 22. This column will dive into each game and highlight the top March Madness DFS picks and value plays to target with the help of Stokastic’s CBB DFS projections.

March Madness DFS Picks: NIT (March 22)

Both games today have high totals, making it a fun slate for March Madness DFS picks today.

UAB vs. Vanderbilt

This game currently is a pick-‘em and a 153 total. After losing to in their conference title game, UAB defeated Southern Miss and Morehead State to reach this game. Likewise, Vanderbilt knocked off Yale and Michigan after making a mini run in the SEC Tournament.

UAB has a usage monster in Jordan Walker ($7,700). He missed a portion of the season but has returned to the same elite usage in a nearly every-minute role. Walker has a 25.6% usage rate and stands out as the best play on the slate. On the year, he has a 23% shot rate and 22.6% assist rate for the Blazers. Behind him, Eric Gaines ($7,300) is the next-most involved player. Gaines has a 17.3% usage rate and will touch 30 minutes in competitive games. He also has a 15.5% shot rate and 42.9% assist rate over the last three games. K.J. Buffen ($7,100) also comes into play after logging a 15.5% shot rate, 19.5% rebound rate and 14.3% assist rate over the last three.

Trey Jemison ($7,200) will also play around 30 minutes, with a 10.5% shot rate and 25.4% rebound rate over the last three games. However, he comes in as a distant fourth option, compared to the other three usage leaders. Ty Brewer ($5,000) rounds out the regular starting five and gets around mid-20s minutes. For some reason, he and Gaines have been flip-flopping starting roles. The final starter in the lineup has been Tavin Lovan ($4,600). However, Lovan logged only 11, 14 and 22 minutes over the last three games, with miniscule usage. Javian Davis ($4,000) and Tony Toney ($3,700) are other pure punt options for larger GPPs.

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The Commodores lost Liam Robinson for the year. Myles Stute also abandoned the team, somewhat narrowing the distribution of minutes here. With the losses, Tyrin Lawrence ($7,600) and Jordan Wright ($7,800) have stepped into increased roles for Vanderbilt. Lawrence played 34, 36 and 33 minutes over the last three games, logging a 25.9% shot rate and 21.5% rebound rate. Similarly, Wright played 35, 26 and 32 minutes over the last three games and had a 21% shot rate, 19% rebound rate and 46.9% assist rate. Wright is the slightly better price-adjusted play, but both project well here.

Ezra Manjon ($6,700) will also play nearly every minute, but he accounts for just a 17.3% shot rate, 8.9% rebound rate and 31.3% assist rate. Quentin Millora-Brown ($4,900) played 30, 32 and 24 minutes over the last three games, with a 5.6% shot rate, 29.1% rebound rate and 3.1% assist rate. While his rates leave much to be desired, his price looks somewhat intriguing. Collin Smith ($4,300) had 26, 31 and 27 minutes over the last three games. He accounts for a 13% shot rate, 8.9% rebound rate and 3.1% assist rate. Like Millora-Brown, Smith is a lightly used value play. Trey Thomas ($3,000) provides the ultimate value play in this offense. Thomas played 20 and 17 minutes over the last two games, but he opens salary for about any stud on the slate.

Cincinnati vs. Utah Valley

Another pick-’em, this game has an elite total of 148.5. Cincinnati defeated Virginia Tech and Hofstra to reach this point, while Utah Valley knocked off Colorado and New Mexico.

The Bearcats are led by Landers Nolley ($8,200). Nolley plays almost every minute and had an absurd 22.8% shot rate, 19.8% rebound rate and 19.4% assist rate over Cincinnati’s last three games. He is joined by David DeJulius ($7,900), who also plays almost every minute. DeJulius has a solid 22.2% shot rate, 8.1% rebound rate and 58.3% assist rate as Cincinnati’s primary ball handler., Mika Adams-Woods ($6,100) will also play 30 minutes, but he only has a 12.3% shot rate and 11.1% assist rate as the team’s glue guy.

Finding the salary for one of the elite players looks like a better idea here. Another option would be taking a gamble on Viktor Lakhin ($6,900) Lakhin saw his minutes limited down the stretch for Cincinnati after battling injury. However, he played 26 and 28 minutes in back-to-back games and had a high rebounding rate. While the minutes are still a gamble, a healthy Lakhin would be a strong option to target here. Cincinnati has also moved Ody Oguama ($5,200) into a larger role at the expense of Jeremiah Davenport ($5,200). Oguama played 28, 30 and 26 minutes over the last three games, accounting for a 10.5% shot rate and 23.4% rebound rate. In turn, Davenport had 19, 21 and 18 minutes in that span. Cincinnati will occasionally use Dan Skillings Jr. ($3,900) off the bench, but he offers nothing more than a potential punt option for March Madness DFS picks.

Utah Valley won by double digits in each of their first NIT games, somewhat muddling its minutes. However, Trey Woodbury ($7,400) had a strong usage rate of 18.3%, along with 30-plus minutes in each of the last three games. In that span, he accounted for an absurd 23% shot rate, 21.7% rebound rate and 37% assist rate. The Wolverines also get strong usage out of Aziz Bandaogo ($7,500) and Justin Harmon ($6,500). Harmon plays slightly more minutes, but both players have strong roles. Bandaogo accounted for a 12.8% shot rate, 22.6% rebound rate and 7.4% assist rate for Utah Valley over the last three games, while Harmon comes in at 21.4%, 15.1% and 18.5%, respectively. Ultimately, Woodbury and Harmon look like the best plays, with Bandaogo offering a contrarian pivot.

The other two options here are Le’tre Darthard ($6,000) and Tim Fuller ($6,200). Both are too close to Harmon in pricing to seriously consider on this slate. Fuller offers a little more double-double upside, while Darthard stands in the corner and shoots. On the bench, Blaze Nield ($4,200) and Tajh Small ($4,500) will play between 10 and 20 minutes as potential value options, depending on the score of the games.

Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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