MLB DFS Picks & Projections: Nobody Pops More Than Spencer Strider (May 28)

MLB DFS Classic slates are usually the star of the show for most players, but Sunday nights are a little different. Tonight’s MLB DFS Sunday Night featured Showdown is between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. DraftKings’ flagship GPP has $25,000 to first, which could be quite the takedown if you’re up for some MLB showdown variance to cap off the week. Of course, Spencer Strider is on the mound for the Braves, which is hard to avoid and clearly the top option. He’ll be chalky, so you’ll have to figure out how to get different and what other players– starters or bullpen arms– stand out. Stokastic’s single game MLB DFS ownership projections are the best place to start.

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MLB DFS Picks & Projections: Spencer Strider a Tough Fade

Spencer Strider is projected to be owned at a 29% rate in the Captain spot and 52.6% in the Utility. That might seem high, but given his 24.12 fantasy point projection and enormous ceiling potential, don’t be surprised to see those numbers get even higher when the cards are flipped over after lock. There’s no better way to capture ceiling and floor in MLB DFS Showdown formats by rostering starting pitchers, especially when they have Strider’s strikeout potential.

Nevertheless, if Strider comes in exorbitantly higher than his efficient ownership rates, the edge is going to come in fading him as the captain or even in the flex. While that can be a fraught strategy on most showdown slates where the DraftKings GPPs are small, beating 8,000 other lineups in the Sunday night showdown takes some lineup ingenuity.

The Braves have a 5.7 implied team total compared to the Phillies’ at 3.6 runs. That discrepancy is thanks in part to the aforementioned Strider, but also the fact that Philadelphia is trotting out long-time journeyman starting pitcher Dylan Covey. He’s a hard pill to swallow at a $10,200 price tag in DFS lineups. At 31-years old, Covey has been around the majors and has yet to find much success. However, he has been solid to start the season, and a one game baseball slate is enough for him to have a major impact.

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The field is sharp enough to know this, so don’t read too much into his current 1.0% ownership rate. But do consider Covey a flyer that not only saves you from eating too much ownership, but also flips the game script. After all, it’s baseball, and that +225 number on the Phillies moneyline can change with the swing of a bat. Covey’s Captain ownership is likely to come in too low for his chances of being the highest scoring player on this slate. Likewise, he can be played in the UTIL an paired with a Phillies batter in the Captain spot. The Phillies batters are also coming in significantly under owned relative to their chances of success.

In the realistic scenario of a pitchers duel, both Covey and Strider are where you’ll want to go. Of course, it’s a huge field and that roster combination will be common, so you may want to consider some bullpen arms for MLB DFS showdown on Sunday night.

MLB DFS Showdown Bullpen Arms:

Phillies: Craig Kimbrel has pitched in two straight games and is unlikely to see action on Sunday, making him an easy bullpen arm to cross off of your list. If the Phillies are ahead, or in a close game they are likely to use Seranthony Dominguez or Gregory Soto. Connor Brogdon and Andrew Vazquez are also viable in those scenarios. Unfortunately, Matt Strahm is the highest upside arm in their bullpen. Strahm worked as a starter earlier in the season but has been used out of the pen as of late. The Phillies have put him into higher leverage spots, but also been keen to utilize him for 2+ innings. Alas, his usage has a starter makes him priced out of viability. Game scripts that consider stretched out relievers for the Phillies (lopsided games) might consider back of the bullpen arms like Jeff Hoffman and Yunior Marte.

Braves: Jose Jimenez and Jesse Chavez have both worked two days in a row and are unlikely to get into Sunday’s game. Kirby Yates and A.J. Minter both pitched in Saturday’s game, but their pitch counts were low enough that the Braves could opt to utilize them. That’s especially the case for Minter who is one of the Brave’s more trusted bullpen arms, and strongest left-handed pitcher. The Braves also have left Lucas Luetge. He is more stretched out, but also threw 42 pitches on Friday and may be set for additional rest tonight. The Braves top arms are Raisel Iglesias and Nick Anderson, both of whom have not thrown in a few days and should be available. They are likely only to pitch if the game is tied or the Braves have the lead. Atlanta could also opt for Colin McHugh, who is fully rested.

MLB DFS Showdown Top Bats:

If you aren’t eating Strider chalk in the Captain spot, which is usually a plus EV decision in massive GPPs, you’ll still have to get different with the bats you choose to lead your lineup. Michael Harris III and Marcel Ozuna come up optimal at tehe highest frequency because of their low salaries of $5,600 and $4,800, respectively. The field is likely to use them in the captain and utility spots quite a bit, along with Braves sluggers Rafael Acuna and Matt Olson.

The Phillies ownership should lean toward big name hitters like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Expect Brandon Marsh and Trea Turner to pickup some ownership in the Captain and Utility spots as well. All of these plays are top names in a vacuum. However, dropping to minimally owned plays in MLB showdown is typically the way to go if you are trying to win the lottery. Mid-priced, bats in righty-righty matchups like Sean Murphy, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm or Orlando Arcia are sneaky ways to separate from the pack.

Anything can happen in a single game, and it’s connecting on that 99th percentile outcome that will turn a lazy Sunday after the MLB main slate into a killer Sunday Night MLB DFS Showdown.