MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 16
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Burnes has seen his strikeout rate fall each of the last five years, from a lofty high of 12.61 per nine in 2021 when he won the National League Cy Young Award with Milwaukee, down to 7.49 this season. His walks are up, but the run prevention is still there, and with Arizona being an insane -410 favorite to win tonight, there is a good potential for bonus points as well as a quality start.
The last three starts were a little better, with Burnes recording 16 strikeouts in 18.1 innings, allowing only two earned runs and two unearned runs. Still the 10 walks are a little nerve-wracking, though that is something to file away for future matchups.
Colorado has a 67 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes different variables such as park factors, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. That means the Rockies create runs 33% less efficiently than league average, and they are a full standard deviation below the next worst team, which, of course, is the Chicago White Sox.
The Rockies active roster also has the second-highest strikeout rate (26.0%) against right-handed pitching and a .139 ISO that is in the bottom third of the league while giving full credit for the Coors Field production. The projected lineup has a collective 27.3% strikeout rate and a .146 ISO over the last season-plus against right-handed hurlers, which is also in Burnes’ favor.
Ragans has the best matchup but also more popularity than his counterparts, who are each pretty much matchup-proof. Crochet has the best strikeout potential, with key Atlanta hitters Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, catcher Sean Murphy and outfielder Eli White each having struck out at least 26.7% of the time against southpaws since the start of last year.
Boston will be providing plenty of strikeout opportunities for Sale, though it has the advantage of having Alex Bregman, Trevor Story and Rob Refsnyder all healthy at the same time, which creates an extended lineup of power threats.
It is hard to go wrong with any of this trio, at least prior to the games being played.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Marquez has been healthy for only 20 innings in 2023, four in 2024 and 37 this year. His strikeouts per nine innings have fallen all the way down to 4.86 this year after the Colorado ace averaged 9.34 per nine in 532 innings between 2017 and 2019. In five road appearances this season, Marquez has faced just 96 batters, ceding a triple-slash line of .356/.404/.433, suffering 24 runs with a scant 14 strikeouts.
The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight, which is helping to boost the Arizona team total to a lofty 6.6 runs. Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte have hefty salaries on DraftKings at $6,000 and $5,300, respectively. However, no other batsmen are going to bust budgets, though with all of the aces on the mound tonight taking up cap space, gamers may not get to the top of the order. That is something to pay attention to as spending on this duo could be a way to create in-stack differentiation, depending on how the field approaches this conundrum.
FanDuel whiffed on the salaries for Josh Naylor ($3,000), Lourdes Gurriel ($2,900) and Pavin Smith ($2,900), so even though Carroll ($4,500) and Marte ($3,700) have higher-than-normal salaries for the blue site, stacking the team is not an issue. In addition to the previous five hitters, Eugenio Suarez rounds out the six most desirable bats. There is no need to gush about how this collective crew is showing fields of green on the hitting dashboards as the team total and projections are already flagging them as the most likely top stack for Friday. Marte was pulled on Wednesday in the seventh inning with lower leg tightness, but that was also after he had clubbed a pair of round-trippers and Arizona was holding an 8-4 lead. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight, but it is still worth calling out this situation, particularly if manager Torey Lovullo is slow to submit the lineup card.
The Dodgers also look phenomenal at home against RHP Jack Kochanowicz, though at least DraftKings and Yahoo have pushed their salaries to elevated levels, making this team tough to stack while also having two remotely adequate pitchers.
Optimizers will pick this up on DraftKings, but handcrafters may not. For Arizona, Jordan Lawlar is just $2,300, and for the Dodgers discount dandy Hyeseong Kim is $2,400. This middle infield duo will likely be batting from the nine-hole, but they are cheap access to the best two stacks on the slate.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals
Temperatures will be in the mid-70s during the game, and there is a 15 to 20 mph breeze out to right field, which helps the left-handed hitters. The main reason for the Royals being below a five-run implied total is that RHP Andre Pallante has a solid ground ball lean, with a 62.7% rate in 164.2 innings over the last season-plus when he finally became a full-time starter.
On the positive side for Kansas City, Pallante has a low 17.6% combined strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate in this period while allowing hard contact 45.1% of the time. Because the two Missouri teams are in different leagues, Pallante also has surprise on his side since most of the active hitters have only stepped in the box against him a handful of times over the last four years. Still, that is not enough to keep savvy gamers away from the Royals.
The trio to target is always going to be superstar Bobby Witt Jr., veteran Salvador Perez and masher Vinnie “Pasquatch” Pasquantino. Jonathan India has been a nice addition as the leadoff man, though he is better against lefties. Maikel Garcia is in the midst of a major breakthrough against same-handed hurlers this year, while Kyle Isbel provides differentiation from the nine-hole, which is fine for synergistic purposes in “wraparound” stacks.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take Dustin May under 5.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
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Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
May has been in this recommendation previously and likely will be again. The projected lineup for the Angels has a 27.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers since the start of last season, though May has only a 19.9% rate himself. The oft-injured pitcher also has a soft pitch cap of around 90 throws or six innings. In his seven starts, he tallied six, one, seven, five, three, six and five strikeouts, so the 5.5 threshold is a good mark.
It is also important to keep in mind that manager Dave Roberts does not have many healthy options, so keeping May from overextending himself is paramount. This has resulted in May averaging just over 86 pitches and 5.2 innings per start. If he gets into any jams or is nibbling around the plate, he will burn through his allocated workload, and five of the nine hitters for the Halos have a 9%-plus walk rate against right-handed hurlers.
