MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Early and Main Slate Recos! (May 15)

Thursday brings split-slate action with a frontloaded day beginning at 12:15 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today we’re breaking down MLB DFS picks using Stokastic’s industry-leading tools and MLB DFS projections to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, find the top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Jacob deGrom and Hunter Brown are the decision points for the two-game featured slate, while Nick Martinez is a potential contrarian arm in the early going. The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is recommending the Athletics as a consideration tonight, with the Toronto Blue Jays differentiation for the afternoon contests.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 15


MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Jacob deGrom (TEX vs. HOU)

Rangers vs. Astros – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$9,200 at FanDuel
$53 at Yahoo

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool knows most gamers are going to be choosing between RHPs Jacob deGrom and Hunter Brown, facing off at Globe Life Field in Arlington. This makes sense as the Astros are missing Yordan Alvarez and the Rangers are without Corey Seager.

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Plus with RHPs Ben Casparius and Osvaldo Bido as the only two other options, there is a chasm between the median fantasy projection for each pair.

It has been good to see deGrom finding success after dealing with injuries for the last couple of seasons. So far this year, he has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts, with the lone blemish being a four-run affair against Tampa.

The strikeouts are solid as the 36-year-old has notched 46 in his 43 innings, and the seven home runs are the cost of doing business with a frontline starter who revels in challenging opposing batsmen.

While it is more of a tiebreaker, deGrom does have surprise on his side with only catcher Victor Caratini (4-for-14, two home runs, three strikeouts), Brendan Rodgers (2-for-4, one walk, two strikeouts) and Christian Walker (0-for-7, three strikeouts) the active Astros to have previously faced the two-time Cy Young Award winner.

Brown has also been stellar this season, though he did have seven of his 14 walks in the last two games. The 26-year-old has allowed one longball while striking out 58 in 48.2 frames. He is tied for first with a 4-1 record and in the top 5 with his 1.48 ERA and 0.900 WHIP. The collective Rangers have a .333/.381/.489 triple-slash line, three home runs and two doubles, striking out a scant 15 times in 90 at-bats.

Early Slate Contrarian Pitching Target: RHP Nick Martinez (CIN vs. CHW)

Reds vs. White Sox – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 12:40 p.m. ET
$8,300 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo

Gamers will be mostly choosing between RHP Kevin Gausman, who is the most accomplished pitcher on the docket, and RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, who has a decent matchup against a Washington lineup that trails off dramatically for the last few slots in the batting order, with Luis Garcia on the paternity list and Paul DeJong out with an injury.

The salary algorithms have boosted RHP Nick Martinez, who is facing the dilapidated Chicago offense that has “popped off” for 20 runs in the last five games, winning four. That represents 27% of the White Sox season-long run production, which is among the dregs of the league. Martinez is well suited for life working in Great American Ballpark with his proclivity for inducing ground balls and limiting power. He spent three seasons in Japan prior to getting a contract with San Diego in 2022. While he was mostly a starter to begin his career with the Rangers, he was more of a swingman for the Padres and last year for the Reds. Cincinnati has put him in the rotation, and he has delivered eight steady starts so far.

Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn and Matt Thaiss are the only worrisome bats for the Pale Hose. Chase Meidroth has been overmatched so far as he learns on the job, and Timothy Elko, who was recently called up from the minors, is far from a prospect of note.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Athletics

Athletics at Dodgers – 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Matt Sauer
DK Top Stack %: 22.2%
FD Top Stack %: 22.9%

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool love the Dodgers against RHP Osvaldo Bido, but so does the field, which means finding the right bats in the Battle for Texas will be key since the Athletics are also popular.

The Dodgers will be starting RHP Matt Sauer, who has a grand total of 28 innings in The Show as a reliever, despite being drafted all the way back in 2017 by the Yankees. The now 26-year-old meandered through the New York farm system, never breaking out. Kansas City selected him in the Rule 5 draft, putting him on the active roster last year as a reliever. He did not make it through May before being designated for assignment and rejoining the Yankees.

This winter, Los Angeles signed Sauer to a minor league contract, and he has bounced between the big leagues and Triple-A this season. L.A. has plenty of rested arms in the bullpen, so expect a quick hook by manager Dave Roberts if Sauer gets into major trouble.

Look to the usual suspects, with Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers and Lawrence Butler comprising the core four. Youngster Jacob Wilson looks to be ensconced in the leadoff slot for his contact, so he will be popular as well. JJ Bleday has been scuffling, so he is lower in the order and can provide differentiation, along with pesky Luis Urias and top prospect Nick Kurtz, who has been batting at the back of the order in his debut season.

Early Slate Contrarian Target: Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays vs. Rays – 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Zack Littell
DK Top Stack %: 11.1%
FD Top Stack %: 10.8%

Atlanta at home against RHP Trevor Williams and the Reds in Great American Ballpark against struggling RHP Bryse Wilson are the priority targets. That leaves Toronto slightly underrepresented in tournaments in a matchup against a mediocre-at-best arm in RHP Zack Littell.

Littell has seen his strikeouts slip from a barely acceptable 21.5% last year to a dreadful 16.1% this season. This has further exposed his power issues, which has resulted in three multi-home run efforts in the last six games, including four by the anemic Los Angeles Angels in early April. The 29-year-old is getting by with smoke and mirrors, which is no way to survive in the American League East.

Switch-hitter Anthony Santander hurt his shoulder last Thursday, which cost him a couple of games. He has been back for two, getting a hit last night. This came right as the former Baltimore Oriole was getting locked in at the plate, so hopefully he recaptures that magic quickly. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has not had much power success against same-handed hurlers, with a pitiful .099 ISO in 142 plate appearances this season. That should not be an issue for Littell, so consider this a get-right spot for the second-generation hitting savant.

Dalton Varsho is locked in and Addison Barger is a decent discount dandy, with both holding the platoon advantage over Littell. George Springer has lost some of his power in same-handed matchups, but the veteran is still good at making contact, and line drive doubles are a reasonable consolation prize for what used to be home runs.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

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Correa used to be solid in same-handed matchups, but age and injuries have taken their toll. This year in 129 plate appearances against fellow righties, he has a dreadful .228 wOBA and .050 ISO with a .210/.250/.258 triple-slash line and a hefty 25 strikeouts. RHP Tomoyuki Sugano doesn’t strike out many hitters, but he does induce his share of ground balls, which is perfect against Correa.

How to get the most out of your MLB DFS picks with Stokastic Sims!

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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