MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 15
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Miami is definitely not a source of strikeouts either with a 20.7% rate against southpaws, but that is accompanied by an anemic .117 ISO and a below-average 88 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes ballpark effects among other variables, creating a league-wide baseline of 100), which indicates that the Marlins are creating runs 12% less than league average.
The Juan Soto deal with San Diego has been paying dividends for Washington. Three years ago the Nationals received LHP MacKenzie Gore, veteran Luke Voit, and youngsters C.J. Abrams, James Wood, Robert Hassell III, and Jarlin Susana for Soto and veteran switch-hitter Josh Bell. The next year, Voit couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn, ultimately being released by Washington then getting chances with Milwaukee and the New York Mets before spending 2024 and 2025 in the Mexican League. Recently, he signed a deal with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan as he tries to catch on in the NPB.
Abrams was an All-Star last year, and Gore should be this year, as he is leading the league with 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Heck, Wood is likely to make the Mid-Summer Classic as well — if not this year, then in the next couple of seasons. Hassell is up with the Nationals, and Bell has boomeranged back to Washington after spending time with the Padres, Guardians, Marlins and Diamondbacks. That is how you restock a franchise when trading a generational talent.
Back to the recommendation at hand, Gore looks like the preferred option, which in turn makes Wheeler the tournament pivot for leverage against the field. The Nats bats are not popping as a stack, but Abrams and Young both profile well this afternoon against RHP Eury Perez.
In Atlanta, LHP Chris Sale had his start pushed, so he will be facing the New York Mets on Tuesday in a key National League East matchup. That has RHP Grant Holmes taking on the Colorado Rockies in Atlanta, which has his fantasy points on par with Gore and Wheeler at a lower cost and in the best matchup.
It is important to point out that T-Mobile Park is essentially Coors Field, but in a good way for pitchers.
Another thing to remember about two-game slates, which do have decently sized contests on Father’s Day, is to relax inclinations and rules about eschewing hitters against the pitchers that you are rostering. The MLB schedule is frontloaded for families to get out and “touch some grass” while taking in a game live, so it takes some fun strategery to approach the afternoon action.
The four pitchers are separated by just over 2 DraftKings points and almost 4 FanDuel points, which is basically nothing in a median projection. Now is the time to embrace the chaos and variance that is MLB DFS and chart our own course in the large-field tournaments.
The Mariners used some late-game heroics to tie and ultimately win last night, with Jorge Polanco getting a walk-off bases-loaded single. Seattle can sweep with a win today, which will be fun for all the Pacific Northwest fathers in attendance this afternoon.
Standing in the way will be Ortiz, who has a career-high 9.82 strikeouts per nine innings, courtesy of his 25.2% strikeout rate. This is his first season as a full-time starter, having bounced between the rotation and a relief role the last two seasons in Pittsburgh. The M’s profile well against right-handed hurlers, though the bottom of the order in Ben Williamson and top prospect Cole Young will provide Ortiz with strikeout opportunities.
In summary, the approach to this short slate should be as “both-sidesers” (h/t TMcB) all the way around, with a sprinkling of pitchers and stacks from each of the four teams. Even in lineups with Ortiz, it is fine to include the power upside of switch-hitters Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco since it is unlikely Ortiz will toss a no-hitter or a shutout.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Texas Rangers
There is a chance for late afternoon showers around the Beltway, though it should not impact the Washington Nationals or Orioles games. Atlanta also has scattered showers, but it is hard to tell this morning if those are going to arrive during the game or just after, so be sure to look at the forecast prior to first pitch.
Weather is not a concern in Texas, where the Rangers are on a heater, winning six of their last seven games. On the mound for the White Sox will be newly acquired pitcher RHP Aaron Civale, who was sent to Chicago after indicating he did not want to pitch in the bullpen for Milwaukee. The Brewers granted him a “careful what you wish for” trade, banishing him to the Pale Hose.
The 30-year-old is a back-of-the-rotation starter, though he essentially is now the “best” pitcher on Chicago, depending on how one views youngsters Shane Smith, Sean Burke and Jonathan Cannon.
After a very slow start, the Rangers scored the third-most runs in the league over the last fortnight, being powered by leadoff man Josh Smith and veteran Marcus Semien. Semien had been banished to the bottom of the order after a frigid start to the season, but over his last 79 plate appearances against right-handed hurlers, he had a stellar .405 wOBA, and a .235 ISO, accompanied by 13.9% strikeout and 10.1% walk rates.
Switch-hitter Sam Haggerty should be in the lineup as he does his best work against righties, and struggling Adolis Garcia was last night’s hero, plus he had hits in eight of his last 10 games. Corey Seager had only three hits in 50 at-bats this month, and he has looked out of sorts after a couple different injury stints. He has played in only 40 games, and at some point he should regain his form. In the meantime, Wyatt Langford and Jake Burger have been helping carry the power load. They both profile well against Civale, who has ceded 1.67 home runs per nine innings over his last 183 frames, with a .209 ISO to lefties and a .176 ISO to same-handed batsmen.
Late Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
At first blush, targeting Hancock would be the way to go, though in his five starts since ceding seven runs to the New York Yankees, he allowed only nine runs. That said, the 19 strikeouts in these 26.1 frames are not particularly scary for opposing batsmen. Pivetta came into June with a pristine 2.74 ERA, but he allowed 10 runs in his last 10 innings, with the Giants tagging him for five in San Francisco and the Dodgers plating five on Monday in San Diego.
Thankfully, DraftKings and Yahoo at least attempted to push up the salaries for Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, though between backup catchers and fourth outfielders getting tabbed to start today, it is not too much of a challenge to roster this duo with any combination of pitchers. That is why the “normal rules” for roster construction need to go out the window in order to find differentiation from the field.
Pavin Smith and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. profile well against Pivetta, and they will provide some differentiation from the back of the order. Plus it is hard not to like Eugenio Suarez, as the veteran slugger already has 20 home runs in just 70 games.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Betting on singles is always interesting because it actually is only applicable to singles. Extra-base hits do not count. This is a lefty-lefty matchup for Schanuel, so there is always a chance he is not in the lineup, though Cade Povich is far from a shutdown pitcher. Povich does allow above-average production to fellow southpaws, though Schanuel has not had much success himself with a weak .083 ISO in his last 195 plate appearances since the start of last season.
Of course, that means he hits mostly singles in these situations, and that is what we are looking to avoid. In his 186 career plate appearances, Schanuel has 23 singles among his 32 hits against same-handed hurlers. The math is in the favor of the under, and there is a good chance that a number better than +125 is out there on one of the “social sites” like NoVig or ProphetX.
